Belirsizliklerin, Risklerin ve Oynaklıkların Gölgesinde Küresel Gıda Fiyatları

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, küresel gıda fiyatlarının 1997:01-2024:06 aylık döneminde belirsizliklerden, risklerden ve oynaklıklardan nasıl etkilendiğini araştırmaktır. Rejim değişikliklerini tespit etmek ve her rejimde farklı ekonomik ilişkileri ortaya koymak için değişkenlerin doğrusal olmayan yapılarını dikkate alan Markov-Rejim Değişim regresyon yöntemi tercih edilmiştir. Rejim 0'ın temsil ettiği dönemler, genellikle 2007-2009 küresel finansal krizi, 2010-2011 Euro bölgesi borç krizi ve 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemisi gibi yüksek belirsizlik ve kriz dönemleriyle örtüşmektedir. Bunun dışında kalan dönemleri kapsayan Rejim 1, normalleşme dönemlerini temsil etmektedir. Bulgular, gıda fiyatlarının artış eğilimindeyken (kriz dönemlerinde), bu artışın jeopolitik risklerden ve hisse senedi piyasası volatilitesinden önemli ölçüde etkilendiğine dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Gıda fiyatları azalma eğilimindeyken ise (normalleşme dönemlerinde) petrol fiyatları gibi maliyet unsurlarından güçlü bir biçimde, küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliğinden ise zayıf bir biçimde etkilenmektedir. Politika yapıcıların, küresel gıda fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaları öngörebilmek için küresel belirsizliklere ve risklere odaklanmaları önerilmektedir.

Keywords

• Küresel Gıda Fiyatları
• Küresel Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği
• Jeopolitik Riskler
• Hisse Senedi Piyasası Volatilitesi
• Markov-Rejim Değişim Regresyon

Global Food Prices in the Shadow of Uncertainties, Risks and Volatilities

Abstract

This study aims to investigate how global food prices are affected by uncertainties, risks, and volatilities for the period from January 1997 to June 2024 on a monthly basis. To detect regime changes and reveal different economic relations in each regime, the Markov-switching regression method, which considers the non-linear structures of the variables, is preferred. The periods represented by Regime 0 often coincide with periods of high uncertainty and crisis, such as the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis, the 2010–2011 Eurozone Debt Crisis, and the 2020–2022 COVID-19 pandemic. Regime 1, which covers periods other than these, represents the normalization periods. The findings provide evidence that when food prices tend to increase (during crisis periods), this increase is significantly affected by geopolitical risks and equity market volatility. When food prices tend to decline (during normalization periods), they are strongly affected by cost factors such as oil prices and weakly affected by global economic policy uncertainty. Policymakers are advised to focus on global uncertainties and risks to anticipate fluctuations in global food prices.

Keywords

• Global Food Prices
• Global Economic Policy Uncertainty
• Geopolitical Risks
• Equity Market Volatility
• Markov-Switching Regression.

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