Türkiye’de Yenilenebilir Enerji Sürecinde Finansal ve Uluslararası Ticaret Faktörlerinin Rolü: ARDL Sınır Testi Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de bir dizi makroekonomik ve finansal faktörün yenilenebilir enerji kullanımı üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. 2010–2024 dönemine ait üçer aylık verilerin kullanıldığı araştırmada, değişkenlerin farklı durağanlık düzeyleri ile uyumlu ARDL metodolojisi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, uluslararası ticarete açıklığın Türkiye’de yenilenebilir enerji üzerinde olumsuz bir etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuç, teorik beklentilerin aksine, ticaretin fosil yakıt bağımlılığını artırdığına yönelik bir kanıt sağlamaktadır. Buna karşılık, brüt sermaye akımları ve net uluslararası yatırım pozisyonu, uzun vadede yenilenebilir enerji kullanımını olumlu yönde etkilemektedir. Bu durum, yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarında dış finansmanın önemini vurgulamaktadır. Ancak, özel sektöre kullandırılan krediler ve hisse senedi piyasası kapitalizasyonu değişkenlerinin uzun dönemde yenilenebilir enerji kullanımıyla anlamlı bir ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır. Bu durum, Türkiye finansal piyasalarının yeşil yatırımlar konusunda yetersiz kaldığını göstermektedir. Kısa dönemde; brüt sermaye akımları ve hisse senedi piyasası kapitalizasyonu yenilenebilir enerji kullanımını artırmakla birlikte, bu etkilerin geçici olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın politika çıkarımları olarak ticaret ve finans politikalarının iklim hedefleriyle uyumlaştırılması, yeşil finansal araçların geliştirilmesi ve sürdürülebilir enerji geçişine yönelik kurumsal yapının güçlendirilmesi, Türkiye’nin düşük karbonlu kalkınma hedefleri açısından önemli bir çerçeve sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Yenilenebilir enerji
• ticari açıklık
• finasal açıklık
• finansal gelişmişlik
• ARDL
• Türkiye

The Role of Financial and International Trade Factors in Türkiye's Renewable Energy Trajectory: An ARDL Bounds Test Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the macro–financial determinants of renewable energy deployment in Türkiye using quarterly data from 2010 to 2024 and applying the ARDL methodology, which is suitable for mixed integration orders. The findings reveal that trade openness has a persistent negative effect on the share of renewables in electricity generation, contradicting expectations of technology transfer and highlighting trade–induced fossil fuel dependence. Conversely, gross capital flows and the net international investment position positively influence renewable energy in the long-run, emphasizing the crucial role of external financing in capital–intensive sectors. However, domestic financial indicators—private sector credit and stock market capitalization—do not exhibit significant long–term effects, reflecting inefficiencies in Türkiye's financial markets regarding green investments. Private debt securities demonstrate a marginally positive impact. In the short-run, both gross capital flows and stock market capitalization significantly boost renewable energy deployment, though these effects appear temporary and sensitive to financial volatility. This study contributes to the literature by linking macro–financial variables with renewable energy dynamics in an emerging market context. Policy implications include aligning trade and financial policies with climate objectives, expanding green financial instruments, and strengthening institutional frameworks to support a sustainable and resilient energy transition in Türkiye.

Keywords

• Renewable energy
• Trade openness
• Financial openness
• Financial development
• ARDL
• Türkiye

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