Kamu ve Özel Sektör Yatırımlarının Dinamik Etkileri: Altı Gelişmiş Ülke VAR Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışma Fransa, Almanya, Japonya, Belçika, Birleşik Krallık ve ABD gelişmiş ülkelerinden yola çıkarak kamu ve özel sektör yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemekte, ayrıca kamu ve özel sektör yatırımlarının üretim ve istihdam üzerindeki etkilerini Vektör Otoregresyon (VAR) yöntemi kullanarak analiz etmektedir. Ekonomi literatürü genel olarak kamu yatırımlarının özel sektör yatırımlarına olan katkısını ve ekonomik aktivite üzerindeki etkilerini incelerken, bu çalışma özel sektör yatırımlarının kamu yatırımları ve ekonomik aktivite üzerindeki etkilerini de değerlendirmektedir. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular, kamu yatırımlarının özel sektör yatırımlarının oluşumunu katkıda bulunabildiğini, ancak bunun tersinin geçerli olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Yani, özel sektör kamu sektörü sermaye oluşumuna katkıda bulunmamaktadır. Bunun yanında, özel sektör yatırımlarının üretim ve istihdam üzerindeki etkileri, kamu yatırımlarının aynı değişkenler üzerindeki etkilerinden her zaman daha büyük olmaktadır. Son olarak ise elde edilen sonuçlar, kamu yatırımlarının çalışmada kullanılan diğer değişkenlere göre dışsal olduğu varsayımı altında, değişkenlerin alternatif VAR sıralamalarına karşı duyarlı değildir.

Keywords

• Kamu Yatırımları,Özel Yatırımlar,Üretim,İstihdam

Dynamic Effects of Public and Private Investments: VAR Evidence from Six Advanced Economies

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-term dynamic relationship between public and private investments and evaluates their impacts on economic activity in six advanced economies; France, Germany, Japan, Belgium, the United Kingdom and United States by a VAR framework. The related literature mostly considers the contribution of public investment to the formation of private investment and economic activity. This paper also evaluates the other way around: impacts of private investment on the formation of public investment and economic activity. Orthogonal identification assumptions are imposed to have an interpretable causal impulse-response functions. The empirical results provide evidences that public investment significantly contributes to private investment; however, the reverse is not true. That is, there is no any support for the hypothesis that private capital is also a crucial factor that drives public capital formation. Additionally, private investment always contributes more to output growth and employment than public investment. Finally, the empirical results are not sensitive to the alternative VAR orders of the variables under the assumption that public investment is exogenous with respect to other variables employed in this study.

Keywords

• Public Investment,Private Investment,Production,Employment

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