Kamu ve Özel Sektör Yatırımı Arasında Asimetrik ve Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik: Türkiye'den Kanıtlar

Abstract

Ekonominin ana odak noktalarından biri, özel sektör ile kamu sektörü arasındaki etkileşimdir. Her iki kesim de birbirlerini olumlu veya olumsuz etkileyebilmektedir. Bu makalede, ilk olarak asimetrik nedensellik testi yapılarak, kamu kesimi yatırımlarının özel kesim yatırımları üzerindeki potansiyel dinamik etkilerinin tespit edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Ayrıca, Türkiye'de iki sektör arasındaki yapısal ilişkiyi tespit etmek için doğrusal olmayan ve zamanla değişen nedensellik analizleri kullanılmaktadır. Sonuçlar, kamudan özel sektöre doğru dışlama etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonucun yanında, doğrusal olmayan nedensellik ve zamanla değişen nedensellik testinde nedensel etkiler özel kesim yatırımlarından kamu kesimi yatırımlarına doğru gerçekleşmektedir.

Keywords

• Nedensellik
• asimetrik nedensellik
• zamanla değişen nedensellik
• dışlama
• içselleme

Asymmetric and Time-Varying Causality Between The Public and Private Sector Investment: Evidence From Turkey

Abstract

The interaction between the private and public sectors is one of the main focuses of economics. They affect each other positively or negatively. This paper aims to determine the potential dynamic impacts of the public investments on the private investments in Turkey by running asymmetric causality and to detect a structural relationship of two sectors by using nonlinear and time-varying causality. The result illustrates that there is a crowding-out effect from the public to private investment. On the other side, time-varying and nonlinear causality reach an inverse direction for the causal effects stemming from the private to the public.

Keywords

• asymmetric causality
• time-varying causality
• crowding-out
• crowding-in

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