Kamu Harcamalarının Dışlama Etkisinin İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Bu makalenin amacı, kamu tüketim ve yatırım harcamalarının Türkiye ekonomisindeki özel sektör yatırımları üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Bu çalışmada 1980-2018 verilerine dayalı Eşbütünleşme Vektörü Otoregresif Model kullanılmıştır. Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi'nden elde edilen eşbütünleşme vektörünün sonuçları, incelenen dönemde kamu yatırım harcamalarının birbirini tamamlayıcı ve teşvik edici olduğunu ve kamu tüketim harcamalarının özel yatırım harcamaları ile rekabet halinde olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlara göre, çeşitli ekonomik sektörlerde ekonomik refah ve kalkınma için hükümetin altyapı harcamalarını üstlenmesi önerilmektedir.

Keywords

• Özel Sektör Yatırımları
• Kamu Sektörü Tüketim Harcamaları
• Kamu Sektörü Yatırım Harcamaları
• Eşbütünleşme

Investigating Crowding-Out Effect Of Government Expenditures: Evidence From Turkey

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of government consumption and investment expenditures on private sector investment in the Turkish economy. In this study, the Cointegration Vector Autoregressive Model based on 1980-2018 data has been used. The results of the cointegration vector obtained from the Johansen Cointegration Test show that during the period under review, government investment expenditures are complementary and incentive and government consumption expenditures are competitive with private investment expenditures. Based on the results, it is suggested that to economic prosperity and development in various economic sectors, the government should undertake infrastructure expenditures.

Keywords

• Private Sector Investment
• Public Sector Consumption Expenditures
• Public Sector Investment Expenditures
• Cointegration

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