An Investigation of the Hysteresis in Unemployment in EU Countries and Turkey with Fourier-KPSS Unit Root Test

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 1, 15 - 24, 29.03.2019

Çiler Sigeze Nuran Coşkun Esra Ballı

https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.2019341761

Cited By: 8

Öz

The changes in the unemployment rate and its
hysteria in some EU countries impose significant challenges to  policy makers. To implement appropriate policies,
it is important to examine whether the movement of the unemployment rates in
the country is better corresponded by the unemployment hysteresis or by the
natural rate hypothesis of unemployment. Therefore, this study examines the
hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for European Union countries
and Turkey for the period of 1991–2016. For the test we utilize Fourier- KPSS panel
stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts and cross-section
dependency proposed by Nazlioglu and Karul (2017). The results reveal that
unemployment hysteresis hypothesis cannot be rejected for the EU countries and
Turkey except for Latvia, Belgium, Cyprus and Sweden.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fourier-KPSS, unemployment hysteresis hypothesis, European Union, Turkey

AB Ülkelerinde ve Türkiye'de İşsizlik Histerisinin Fourier-KPSS Birim Kök Testi ile İncelenmesi

Öz

İşsizlik oranındaki değişiklikler ve
bazı AB ülkelerinde işsizlik histerisi politika yapıcılar için önemli zorluklar
doğurmaktadır. Ülkedeki işsizlik oranlarının yapısının işsizlik histerisi veya
doğal oran hipotezi ile daha iyi açıklandığını belirlemek, politika
yapıcılarının uygun politikaları oluşturabilmeleri açısından önem
kazanmaktadır. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada işsizlik histerisi hipotezi Avrupa
Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye için 1991-2016 yıllarını esas alarak Nazlıoğlu ve
Karul (2017) tarafından önerilen yapısal kaymaları ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı
dikkate alan Fourier- KPSS panel durağanlık testi kullanılarak incelenmiştir.
Sonuçlar, işsizlik histerisi hipotezinin Letonya, Belçika, Kıbrıs ve İsveç
haricindeki diğer AB ülkeleri ve Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fourier-KPSS, işsizlik histerisi hipotezi, Avrupa Birliği, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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