Kamu ve Özel Sektör Yatırımlarının Dinamik Etkileri: Altı Gelişmiş Ülke VAR Örneği

Year 2019, Volume: 34 Issue: 2, 245 - 263, 30.06.2019

Oğuz Tümtürk

https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.2019342837

Abstract

Bu çalışma Fransa, Almanya, Japonya, Belçika, Birleşik Krallık ve ABD
gelişmiş ülkelerinden yola çıkarak kamu ve özel sektör yatırımlar arasındaki
ilişkiyi incelemekte, ayrıca kamu ve özel sektör yatırımlarının üretim ve
istihdam üzerindeki etkilerini Vektör Otoregresyon (VAR) yöntemi kullanarak
analiz etmektedir. Ekonomi literatürü genel olarak kamu yatırımlarının özel
sektör yatırımlarına olan katkısını ve ekonomik aktivite üzerindeki etkilerini
incelerken, bu çalışma özel sektör yatırımlarının kamu yatırımları ve ekonomik
aktivite üzerindeki etkilerini de değerlendirmektedir. Çalışmada elde edilen
bulgular, kamu yatırımlarının özel sektör yatırımlarının oluşumunu katkıda
bulunabildiğini, ancak bunun tersinin geçerli olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Yani,
özel sektör kamu sektörü sermaye oluşumuna katkıda bulunmamaktadır. Bunun
yanında, özel sektör yatırımlarının üretim ve istihdam üzerindeki etkileri,
kamu yatırımlarının aynı değişkenler üzerindeki etkilerinden her zaman daha
büyük olmaktadır. Son olarak ise elde edilen sonuçlar, kamu yatırımlarının çalışmada
kullanılan diğer değişkenlere göre dışsal olduğu varsayımı altında,
değişkenlerin alternatif VAR sıralamalarına karşı duyarlı değildir.

Keywords

Kamu Yatırımları, Özel Yatırımlar, Üretim, İstihdam

Dynamic Effects of Public and Private Investments: VAR Evidence from Six Advanced Economies

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-term
dynamic relationship between public and private investments and evaluates their
impacts on economic activity in six advanced economies; France, Germany, Japan,
Belgium, the United Kingdom and United States by a VAR framework. The related
literature mostly considers the contribution of public investment to the
formation of private investment and economic activity. This paper also
evaluates the other way around: impacts of private investment on the formation
of public investment and economic activity. Orthogonal identification assumptions are imposed to have an interpretable causal
impulse-response functions. The empirical results provide evidences that
public investment significantly contributes to private investment; however, the
reverse is not true. That is, there is
no any support for the hypothesis that private capital is also a crucial factor
that drives public capital formation. Additionally, private investment always
contributes more to output growth and employment than public investment. Finally,
the empirical results are not sensitive to the alternative VAR orders of the
variables under the assumption that public investment is exogenous with respect
to other variables employed in this study.

Keywords

Public Investment, Private Investment, Production, Employment

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