Seçili Avrupa Ülkelerinde Gelir Eşitsizliği ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: PMG-ARDL Modelinden Kanıtlar

Year 2025, Volume: 40 Issue: 2, 330 - 341, 04.06.2025

Hamed El Sayed , Noyan Aydın

https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1542966

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, ekonomik faktörlerin dinamiklerini araştırmak amacıyla 2000-2020 dönemi için 15 Avrupa ülkesindeki gelir eşitsizliği ve enflasyon arasındaki etkileşim kapsamlı bir şekilde incelenmiştir. Hem koentegrasyon testi hem de Pooled Mean Group (PMG) / Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) modelleme yaklaşımı kullanılarak yapılan bu araştırma, bu kritik ekonomik değişkenlerin kısa ve uzun vadeli ilişkilerini aydınlatmaktadır. PMG/ARDL modeli, gelir eşitsizliği ile enflasyon arasında uzun vadede anlamlı bir negatif ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir; bu ilişki analiz edilen çoğu ülkede tutarlıdır. Bu durum, enflasyon arttıkça gelir eşitsizliğinin uzun vadede azalma eğiliminde olduğunu öne sürmektedir ve bu durum, enflasyon dönemlerinde servetin yeniden dağıtılması gibi çeşitli ekonomik mekanizmalara atfedilebilir. Ancak, kısa vadeli analizler anlamlı sonuçlar vermemiştir, bu da enflasyonun gelir eşitsizliği üzerindeki kısa dönemli etkisinin daha az belirgin olabileceğini veya diğer ekonomik faktörler tarafından gölgelenmiş olabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu bulgular, enflasyonun servet dağılımını nasıl etkilediğine dair daha derin bir anlayış sunmakta olup, gelir eşitsizliğinin artan bir endişe haline geldiği durumlarda ekonomik politika için önem taşımaktadır. Politika yapıcılar için, enflasyon ile gelir eşitsizliği arasındaki uzun vadeli ters yönlü ilişkileri anlamak, eşitsizliği azaltmayı hedefleyen ekonomik politikaların tasarımında önemli bir rol oynayabilir.

Keywords

Gelir Eşitsizliği, Gini Endeksi, Enflasyon, PMG/ARD, Panel Veri

Income Inequality and Inflation Relationship in Selected European Countries: Evidence from PMG-ARDL Model

Abstract

To explore the dynamics of economic factors, this study undertakes a comprehensive analysis of the inflation and income inequality relationship (IIIR) for selected European countries in the period 2000-2020. By employing both cointegration testing and the Pooled Mean Group (PMG)/Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach, the research sheds light on the short-run and long-run relationships underlying these crucial economic variables. The PMG/ARDL model indicates a significant long-run negative IIIR, consistent across most of the analyzed countries. This suggests that as inflation rises, income inequality tends to decrease in the long term, which may be attributed to various economic mechanisms that redistribute wealth during periods of inflation. However, the short-run analysis did not yield significant results, indicating that the short-run impact of inflation on income inequality might be less pronounced or overshadowed by other economic factors. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of how inflation influences wealth distribution, with implications for economic policy, particularly in contexts where income inequality is an increasing issue. For policymakers, understanding the long-run inverse IIIR could be instrumental in designing economic policies that aim to mitigate inequality.

Keywords

Income Inequality, Gini Index, Inflation, PMG/ARDL, Panel Data

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