Satellite-Based Monitoring of Hydrological Trends in Lake Burdur: NDWI and Linear Regression Approach

Öz

This study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of surface water changes in Lake Burdur, a large endorheic lake located in southwestern Turkey, by employing multi-temporal satellite imagery and geospatial techniques over a 20-year period (2004–2024). Landsat imagery from 2004, 2014, and 2024 was utilized to delineate water surface areas through the application of the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), a spectral index effective in distinguishing water bodies from terrestrial features. All satellite data underwent radiometric and atmospheric correction to ensure inter-annual comparability and eliminate seasonal or atmospheric variability. NDWI thresholding enabled precise classification of water pixels, allowing for the quantification of lake surface area at each time point. The results reveal a consistent and alarming decrease in Lake Burdur’s surface water extent, with a total loss exceeding 26.32% compared to 2004 levels. To statistically characterize this downward trend, linear regression analysis was applied to the calculated water surface areas, revealing a significant negative correlation between time and surface area. This sustained decline is attributed to a combination of climatic factors such as reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, as well as anthropogenic influences including excessive groundwater abstraction and land use changes in the lake’s drainage basin. The findings underscore the increasing vulnerability of closed-basin lakes in semi-arid regions to hydrological stress. This research highlights the efficacy of remote sensing and NDWI-based analysis in long-term lake monitoring and provides critical insights for regional water management and climate adaptation strategies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Burdur Lake
• Surface Water Change
• Normalized Difference Water Index
• Remote Sensing
• Hydrological Degradation

NDWI ve Doğrusal Regresyon Tabanlı Uydu Görüntüleme Yöntemi ile Burdur Gölü'nde Uzun Dönemli Hidrolojik Eğilimlerin Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin güneybatısında yer alan büyük bir endoreik (kapalı havza) göl olan Burdur Gölü’nde, 20 yıllık bir zaman diliminde (2004–2024) meydana gelen su yüzeyi değişimlerini çok zamanlı uydu görüntüleri ve CBS (coğrafi bilgi sistemleri) teknikleri kullanarak kapsamlı bir şekilde analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada 2004, 2014 ve 2024 yıllarına ait Landsat görüntüleri kullanılarak, kara-su ayrımını etkili biçimde gerçekleştiren Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) yöntemiyle göl yüzey alanı sınırları belirlenmiştir. Tüm uydu verileri, yıllar arası karşılaştırmayı mümkün kılmak amacıyla radyometrik ve atmosferik düzeltmeye tabi tutulmuştur. NDWI eşikleme yöntemiyle su pikselleri hassas şekilde sınıflandırılmış ve her yıl için gölün yüzey alanı hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, Burdur Gölü’nün su yüzeyinde 2004 yılına kıyasla %26,32’nin üzerinde kayıp yaşandığını ve bu kaybın süreklilik gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur. Yıllara göre hesaplanan yüzey alanları üzerinde uygulanan lineer regresyon analizi, gölde zamanla meydana gelen küçülmenin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir düşüş eğilimi sergilediğini doğrulamıştır. Bu sürekli azalış, azalan yağışlar ve artan buharlaşma gibi iklimsel etkenlerin yanı sıra, aşırı yeraltı suyu kullanımı ve havza içindeki arazi kullanım değişiklikleri gibi insan kaynaklı baskılarla ilişkilendirilmiştir. Araştırma, yarı kurak bölgelerdeki kapalı havza göllerinin artan hidrolojik stres karşısındaki kırılganlığını vurgularken, NDWI temelli uzaktan algılama analizlerinin uzun vadeli göl izlemelerinde etkinliğini ve bölgesel su yönetimi stratejilerine katkı potansiyelini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Burdur Gölü
• Yüzey Suyu Değişimi
• Normalize Edilmiş Fark Su İndeksi
• Uzaktan Algılama
• Hidrolojik Bozulma.

Kaynakça

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