Comparative Analysis of Azerbaijan's Economic Relations with Central Asian Turkic Republics Using the TOPSİS Method: 1997-2023 Period

Abstract

This study conducts a comparative analysis of Azerbaijan's economically healthy relations with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan during the 1997-2023 period using the TOPSİS (Technique for Order Preference by Simi-larity to Ideal Solution) method, a Multi-Criteria Decision Making method. Six criteria — Azerbaijan’s exports to and imports from partner countries, GDP of partner countries, population of partner countries, trade openness, and foreign direct investment inflows — were evaluated with equal weighting. Data was compiled from the Azerbaijan Statistics Committee and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators and analyzed in three periods: 1997-2008, 2009-2015, and 2016-2023. The analysis results reveal that Kazakhstan maintained its position as the strongest trading partner for Azerbaijan across all three periods. Uzbekistan rose to second place in the 2016-2023 period, driven by its post-2016 economic liberalization policies. Turkmenistan, despite its substantial gas reserves, declined from second to third place due to its closed economic policies. Kyrgyzstan remained in fourth place throughout all periods. The study contributes to the literature through its methodological approach beyond single-dimensional trade analyses, its three-period comparati-ve structure, and its unique Azerbaijan-centered dataset.

Keywords

• Azerbaijan
• Central Asian Turkic Republics
• TOPSİS

Azerbaycan'ın Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetleri ile Ekonomik İlişkilerinin TOPSİS Yöntemiyle Karşılaştırmalı Analizi: 1997-2023 Dönemi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Azerbaycan'ın Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Türkmenistan ve Özbekistan ile 1997-2023 yılları arasında ekonomik ilişkilerini Çok Kriterli Karar Verme yöntemlerinden TOPSİS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solu-tion) yöntemi kullanarak karşılaştırmalı biçimde analiz etmektedir. Azerbaycan'ın söz konusu ülkelere ihracatı ve ithalatı, partner ülkelerin GSYH'sı, nüfusu, ticaret açıklığı ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişinden oluşan altı kriter eşit ağırlık-landırma ile değerlendirilmiştir. Veriler Azerbaycan İstatistik Komitesi ve Dünya Bankası Dünya Kalkınma Göstergele-rinden derlenerek 1997-2008, 2009-2015 ve 2016-2023 olmak üzere üç dönem hâlinde analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçla-rı, Kazakistan'ın her üç dönemde de Azerbaycan için en güçlü ticaret ortağı konumunu koruduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sebepten dolayı Özbekistan, 2016 sonrası ekonomik açılım politikalarının etkisiyle ikinci sıraya yükselirken; Türk-menistan'ın yapısal kısıtlar nedeniyle gerilediğini göstermektedir. Kırgızistan ise tüm dönemler boyunca dördüncü sırada kalmıştır. Çalışma; tek boyutlu ticaret analizlerinin ötesine geçen metodolojik yaklaşımı, üç dönemli karşılaştırmalı yapısı ve Azerbaycan odaklı özgün veri seti ile ilgili literatüre katkı sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Azerbaycan
• Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetleri
• TOPSİS

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