Comparative Analysis of Azerbaijan's Economic Relations with Central Asian Turkic Republics Using the TOPSİS Method: 1997-2023 Period

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2 , 165 - 180 , 15.04.2026

Farid Shirinov

https://doi.org/10.59445/ijephss.1761539

https://izlik.org/JA26SY87EX

Öz

This study conducts a comparative analysis of Azerbaijan's economically healthy relations with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan during the 1997-2023 period using the TOPSİS (Technique for Order Preference by Simi-larity to Ideal Solution) method, a Multi-Criteria Decision Making method. Six criteria — Azerbaijan’s exports to and imports from partner countries, GDP of partner countries, population of partner countries, trade openness, and foreign direct investment inflows — were evaluated with equal weighting. Data was compiled from the Azerbaijan Statistics Committee and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators and analyzed in three periods: 1997-2008, 2009-2015, and 2016-2023. The analysis results reveal that Kazakhstan maintained its position as the strongest trading partner for Azerbaijan across all three periods. Uzbekistan rose to second place in the 2016-2023 period, driven by its post-2016 economic liberalization policies. Turkmenistan, despite its substantial gas reserves, declined from second to third place due to its closed economic policies. Kyrgyzstan remained in fourth place throughout all periods. The study contributes to the literature through its methodological approach beyond single-dimensional trade analyses, its three-period comparati-ve structure, and its unique Azerbaijan-centered dataset.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Azerbaijan , Central Asian Turkic Republics , TOPSİS

Etik Beyan

It is declared that scientific and ethical principles have been followed while carrying out and writing this study and that all the sources used have been properly cited.

Destekleyen Kurum

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Azerbaycan'ın Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetleri ile Ekonomik İlişkilerinin TOPSİS Yöntemiyle Karşılaştırmalı Analizi: 1997-2023 Dönemi

https://izlik.org/JA26SY87EX

Öz

Bu çalışma, Azerbaycan'ın Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Türkmenistan ve Özbekistan ile 1997-2023 yılları arasında ekonomik ilişkilerini Çok Kriterli Karar Verme yöntemlerinden TOPSİS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solu-tion) yöntemi kullanarak karşılaştırmalı biçimde analiz etmektedir. Azerbaycan'ın söz konusu ülkelere ihracatı ve ithalatı, partner ülkelerin GSYH'sı, nüfusu, ticaret açıklığı ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişinden oluşan altı kriter eşit ağırlık-landırma ile değerlendirilmiştir. Veriler Azerbaycan İstatistik Komitesi ve Dünya Bankası Dünya Kalkınma Göstergele-rinden derlenerek 1997-2008, 2009-2015 ve 2016-2023 olmak üzere üç dönem hâlinde analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçla-rı, Kazakistan'ın her üç dönemde de Azerbaycan için en güçlü ticaret ortağı konumunu koruduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sebepten dolayı Özbekistan, 2016 sonrası ekonomik açılım politikalarının etkisiyle ikinci sıraya yükselirken; Türk-menistan'ın yapısal kısıtlar nedeniyle gerilediğini göstermektedir. Kırgızistan ise tüm dönemler boyunca dördüncü sırada kalmıştır. Çalışma; tek boyutlu ticaret analizlerinin ötesine geçen metodolojik yaklaşımı, üç dönemli karşılaştırmalı yapısı ve Azerbaycan odaklı özgün veri seti ile ilgili literatüre katkı sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Azerbaycan , Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetleri , TOPSİS

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışmanın hazırlanma sürecinde bilimsel ve etik ilkelere uyulduğu ve yararlanılan tüm çalışmaların kaynakçada belirtildiği beyan olunur.

Destekleyen Kurum

Çalışma, kamusal, özel, ticari nitelikte ya da kar amacı gütmeyen herhangi bir kurumdan destek alınmadan hazırlanmıştır.

Kaynakça

• Adashaliyeva, I. (2025). The trade dynamics between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: Analysis of competitiveness, product complexity, and trade preference. Journal of Modern Educational Achievements, 1(1). 209-217. https://scopusacademia.org/index.php/jmea/article/view/1219
• Akhter, S., Mir, M. A.., & Megits, N. (2022). The linkage between international trade and economic growth in Kazakhstan. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 9(6), 1021–1033. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i6.1019
• Allayarov, P., Mehmed, B., Arefin, S., & Nurmatov, N. (2018). The factors affecting Kyrgyzstan's bilateral trade: A gravity-model approach. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 5(4), 95-100. https://doi.org/10.13106/JAFEB.2018.VOL5.NO4.95
• Ashurov, S., Othman, A.H.A., Rosman, R.B. & Haron, R.B. (2020). "The determinants of foreign direct investment in Central Asian region: A case study of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (A quantitative analysis using GMM)", Russian Journal of Economics, 6(2), 162-176. https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.6.48556
• Aydın, H. İ., Bălăcescu, A., & Căruntu, G. A. (2025). The effects of geopolitical uncertainties on growth: Econometric analysis on selected Turkic Republican countries and neighboring states. Economies, 13(3), 83. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13030083
• Azam, M. & Ahmed, A.M. (2015). "Role of human capital and foreign direct investment in promoting economic growth: Evidence from Commonwealth of Independent States", International Journal of Social Economics, 42(2), 98-111. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-05-2014-0092
• Behzadian, M., Khanmohammadi Otaghsara, S., Yazdani, M., & Ignatius, J. (2012). A state-of the-art survey of TOPSİS applications. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(17), 13051–13069. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.05.056
• Çetinkaya, A. F., & Demirel, N. (2024). Analyzing the impact of the organization of Turkic states on the foreign trade of member countries. Cogent Social Sciences, 10(1), 2288370. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2288370
• Eleren, A., & Karagül, M. (2008). 1986-2006 Türkiye ekonomisinin performans değerlendirmesi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 15(1), 1–14.
• Eygü, H. (2022). Panel data analysis in investigation the economic growth of Turkic States. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilgilerde Yeni Yaklaşımlar Dergisi, 6(1), 36-46. https://doi.org/10.38015/sbyy.1075022
• Eyüboğlu, K. (2016). Comparison of developing countries' macro performances with AHP and TOPSİS methods. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(1), 131–146. https://doi.org/10.18074/cnuiibf.239
• Golovko, A., & Sahin, H. (2021). Analysis of international trade integration of Eurasian countries: Gravity model approach. Eurasian Economic Review, 11, 519-548. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-021-00168-3
• Göktolga, Z. G., Karakış, E., & Türkay, H. (2015). Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetlerinin ekonomik performanslarının TOPSİS metodu ile karşılaştırılması. International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2015, 321–329. https://congress.avekon.org/papers/1270.pdf
• Gürsoy, F., Sekreter, A., & Kalyoncu, H. (2013). FDI and economic growth relationship based on cross-country comparison. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(2), 519-524. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/362788
• Hasanova, J., & Najafova, K. (2025). Research and analysis of opportunities for regional economic integration among the countries of the Organization of Turkic States. Economics of Development, 24(2), 54-67. https://doi.org/10.63341/econ/2.2025.54
• Hwang, C. L., & Yoon, K. (1981). Multiple attribute decision making: Methods and applications. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48318-9
• Hwang, C. L., Lai, Y. J., & Liu, T. Y. (1993). A new approach for multiple objective decision making. Computers & Operations Research, 20(8), 889–899. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-0548(93)90109-V
• Kazak, H., Akcan, A. T., & İyibildiren, M. (2024). The relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment in the Turkic Republics. Sosyoekonomi, 32(62), 157-177. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2024.04.08
• Kemme, D. M., Akhmetzaki, Y., & Mukhamediyev, B. M. (2021). The effects of the Eurasian Economic Union on regional foreign direct investment and implications for growth. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 30(5), 643-660. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2021.1896769
• Khan, S., Ali, S., & Urooge, S. (2019). The analysis of regional bilateral trade between Pakistan and Central Asian Republics. Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, 29(1), 93-106. https://ideas.repec.org/a/pje/journl/article29sumv.html
• Madanchian, M., & Taherdoost, H. (2023). A comprehensive guide to the TOPSİS method for multi-criteria decision making. Sustainable Social Development, 1(1), 2220. https://doi.org/10.54517/ssd.v1i1.2220
• Makhmadisuf, S., Umarov, H., & Muhammadfiruz, Q. (2022). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Post-Soviet Union Countries Economic Growth Evidence in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic. Minhaj International Journal of Economics and Organization Sciences, 2(1), 44-63. https://www.ojs.mul.edu.pk/index.php/ MJEOS/article/view/134
• Masca, M. (2017). Economic performance evaluation of European Union countries by TOPSİS method. North Economic Review, 1(1), 83–94.
• Niftiyev, I. (2024). Analyzing bilateral trade dynamics between Azerbaijan and Pakistan: A robust least squares regression approach. Journal of Economic Analysis, 3(4), 250-275. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03040012
• Rustamova, L.A & Hasanova, A. (2024). Econometric modeling of the mutual impact of import-export operations in the Republic of Azerbaijan. Scientific Collection InterConf+, 41(185), 21-34. https://archive.interconf.center/index.php/2709-4685/article/view/5137
• Shih, H. S., Shyur, H. J., & Lee, E. S. (2007). An extension of TOPSİS for group decision making. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 45(7–8), 801–813. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2006.03.023
• Şeker, A., & Şimdi, H. (2019). The relationship between economic complexity index and export: The case of Turkey and Central Asian and Turkic Republics. Ekonomika Regiona [Economy of Region], 15(3), 659-669. https://doi.org/10.17059/2019-3-3
• Tüfekçi, Ö., Bayrak, M., & Uslu, H. (2024). Connectivity and corridors: Türkiye's Middle Corridor vision through international trade. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, 29(2), 125-156. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4111430
• Urfalıoğlu, F., & Genç, T. (2013). Çok kriterli karar verme teknikleri ile Türkiye'nin ekonomik performansının Avrupa Birliği üye ülkeleri ile karşılaştırılması. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 35(2), 329–360.
• Uygurtürk, H., & Korkmaz, T. (2012). Finansal performansın TOPSİS çok kriterli karar verme yöntemi ile belirlenmesi: Ana metal sanayi işletmeleri üzerine bir uygulama. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7(2), 95–115.
• Yardımcıoğlu, F., & Gülmez, A. (2013). Türk Cumhuriyetlerinde ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik analizi. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 8(1), 145-161. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/beyder/article/47238
• Yoon, K. (1987). A reconciliation among discrete compromise solutions. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 38(3), 277–286. https://doi.org/10.1057/jors.1987.44
• Yoon, K. P., & Hwang, C. L. (1995). Multiple attribute decision making: An introduction. SAGE Publications. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781412985161
• Yorucu, V. (2013). Income convergence of Central Asian Turkic Republics: A panel study for beta and sigma convergences for six Asian economies. Economic Papers, 32(2), 258-264. https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12024
• Zeynalli, M. (2021). Testing the export-led growth and growth-driven export hypotheses: The case of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan Journal of Social and Economic Studies, 4(1), 3-19. https://www.academia.edu/143406797/Testing_the_export_led_growth_and_growth_ driven_export_hypotheses_The_case_of_Azerbaijan