Electrical Energy Demand Forecast in Nigeria Between 2020 - 2040 Using Probabilistic Extrapolation Method

Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 71 - 85, 30.09.2021

Oniyeburutan Ebakumo

Abstract

Precise load forecasting is very vital for electrical energy utilities in a deregulated electricity market. Reliable and sufficient access to the electric power needed by several homes and businesses remain a great obstacles facing Nigeria. This paper focused on Nigeria electricity demand forecast from 2020 – 2040 using time series analysis on past load demand. The issue of Nigeria electricity supply challenges and possible solution or way forward for sufficient power has been discussed. Several load forecasting techniques, classification over the last few decades and review of previous work on this subject are also presented in this work. On the basics of these review the stochastic/probabilistic extrapolation method were employed. MATLAB was used for the computation and the results were analyzed and discussed. It was observed that there is a great positive link between the electricity demand and the years that as the year advances the demand for a reliable and affordable electrical energy supply increases. From the total predicted load demand, it is seen that Nigeria need over 17,000 MW in 2021 and over 23,000 MW in 2040 to be able to cater for the growing need of Nigerians. The average mean square error which determines the accuracy or precision of forecast was found to be approximately 0.52%. Load forecasting is needed to coordinate transmission and distribution outages over the network and reduce failure rate in the network. Load forecast are extremely important for energy suppliers, financial institutions and other users in electric energy generation, transmission, distribution and market.

Keywords

Forecasting, Energy Demand, Probabilistic Extrapolation, MATLAB

Supporting Institution

University of Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria

Project Number

936845

Thanks

Many thanks to editors for their time and patience in reviewing this work

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