Türkiye’de 2030 Yılına Kadar Bina Sektöründeki Enerji Tüketim Tahmini

Year 2023, , 175 - 181, 31.12.2023

Nazile Yılankırkan , Esra Nur İçme

https://doi.org/10.46460/ijiea.1352958

Abstract

Dünya genelinde olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de nüfus artışı ve teknolojik gelişmelerin sonucu olarak enerji tüketimi artmaktadır. Enerji ihtiyacının yarısından fazlasını ithal kaynaklardan karşılayan Türkiye için enerji verimliliği çalışmaları her geçen gün daha önemli hale gelmektedir. Enerjinin yoğun olarak tüketildiği sektörler incelendiğinde bina sektörü enerji tüketiminin, toplam enerji tüketimi içerisinde payının yaklaşık olarak 20% gibi bir orana sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Bu yüksek oran bina sektörde enerji verimliliği çalışmaları sayesinde enerji ithalat miktarını ve cari açığı azaltacağını aynı zamanda arz güvenliğini sağlamaya yardımcı olacağını göstermektedir.
Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin geçmiş 20 yıldaki nüfus, Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hâsıla (GSYH), bina sayısı ve binalarda tüketilen toplam enerji miktarı verilerinden yararlanılarak geleceğe yönelik bina sektöründe ne kadar enerji tüketileceği tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında, Türkiye’nin 2030 yılına kadar bina sektöründe ne kadar enerji tüketeceği Matlab programında Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) metoduyla tahmin edilmiştir. Yapılan tahminde Türkiye’nin 2030 yılında bina sektöründe 37.868 Bin Ton Eşdeğeri Petrol (TEP) enerji tüketeceği hesaplanmıştır. Ayrıca, bina sektöründe enerji verimliliği çalışmalarının önemi vurgulanmıştır.

Keywords

Enerji, enerji verimliliği, binalarda enerji tüketimi, yapay sinir ağları.

Energy Consumption Forecast for the Building Sector in Turkey Until 2030

Abstract

As in the rest of the world, energy consumption is increasing in Turkey as a result of population growth and technological developments. Energy efficiency studies are becoming more and more important for Turkey, which meets more than half of its energy needs from imported sources. When the sectors where energy is consumed intensively are analyzed, it is seen that the share of building sector energy consumption in total energy consumption is approximately 20%. This high rate shows that energy efficiency studies in the building sector will reduce the amount of energy imports and the current account deficit, as well as help to ensure security of supply.
In this study, Turkey's population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), number of buildings and the total amount of energy consumed in buildings in the past 20 years are used to estimate how much energy will be consumed in the building sector for the future. Within the scope of the study, how much energy will be consumed in the building sector in Turkey until 2030 is estimated by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) method in Matlab program. It is calculated that Turkey will consume 37.868 thousand Tons of Oil Equivalent (TOE) of energy in the building sector in 2030. In addition, the importance of energy efficiency studies in the building sector is emphasized.

Keywords

Energy, Energy Efficiency, Energy Consumption in Buildings, Artificial Neural Networks

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