Brent Petrol ve Altın Finansal Getirilerinin İran'ın Makroekonomik Göstergeleri Üzerindeki Etkilerini Ölçmek için Bir Midas Regresyon Yaklaşımı

Abstract

İran İslam Cumhuriyeti'ne yönelik ekonomik ve mali yaptırım ve yasakların sert, katı, sağlam ve kapsamlı etkileri, bu ülkeyi ABD'nin hakim olduğu uluslararası piyasalar dışında farklı kaynaklara yönlendirmektedir. Altın ve petrol piyasaları en önemli iki piyasadır. Bu araştırma, Altın ve Petrol Getirileri ile İran İslam Cumhuriyeti'nin temel makroekonomik değişkenleri arasındaki ilişkileri analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analizi gerçekleştirmek için Karma Veri Örneklemesi (MIDAS) regresyon metodolojisi kullanılmıştır. Bu analiz, Altın ve Brent petrol getirilerinin İran ekonomisi üzerinde işsizlik oranı, enflasyon oranı ve GSYİH büyümesi açısından metodolojik olarak etkileri olduğunu bulmaktadır. Bu sonuçlara ulaşmak için, zaman serisi analizinde değişkenler arasındaki gecikme ve frekans farklılıklarının giderilmesine odaklanan bir Karma Veri Örnekleme regresyon metodolojisi (MIDAS) kullanılmaktadır. Bu bulgular, İran İslam Cumhuriyeti ekonomisinin altın ve petrol fiyatlarına ilişkin kırılganlıkları olduğunu göstermektedir. İran İslam Cumhuriyeti, bu iki emtia açısından küresel ekonomik konjonktürdeki değişikliklerden etkilenebilir.

Keywords

• İran İslam Cumhuriyeti
• Brent Petrol
• Altın
• Midas Regresyonu
• Finansal Getiriler.

A Midas Regression Approach to Measure the Impacts of the Brent Oil and Gold Financial Returns on Iran’s Macroeconomic Indicators

Abstract

Hard, strict, sound and comprehensive impacts of economic and financial sanctions and bans on Iran Islamic Republic direct this country to different resources out of international markets dominated by the United States. Gold and oil markets are the most important two markets. This research aims to analyse the relationships between Gold and Oil Returns and the main macroeconomic variables of Iran's Islamic Republic. A Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression methodology is utilised to realise analysis. This analysis finds that Gold and Brent oil returns have impacts on Iran's economy regarding the unemployment rate, inflation rate and GDP growth methodologically. To reach these results, it utilizes a Mixed-Data Sampling regression methodology (MIDAS) mainly focused on the elimination of lag and frequency differences between variables in time series analysis. These findings show that the economy of the Iran Islamic Republic has vulnerabilities regarding gold and oil prices. Iran Islamic Republic can be impacted by the changes in global economic conjuncture in terms of these two commodities.

Keywords

• Iran Islamic Republic
• Brent Oil
• Gold
• Midas Regression

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