ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY

Abstract

Using quarterly data and two different indicators of the volume of international tourism, namely the international tourist expenditures and the total number of international tourist arrivals, this paper aims to investigate whether tourism has been a vehicle of economic growth in Turkey. We use the ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction model and find evidence of long-run uni-directional causality running from the volume of international tourism both the tourist expenditures and tourist arrivals and real exchange rates to economic growth, but not vice versa. The results indicate that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis

Keywords

• Turkey,International Tourism,Economic Growth,Causality

TÜRKİYE’DE ULUSLARARASI TURİZMİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİNİN ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu makalenin amacı, uluslararası turizmin hacmini ölçmede kullanılan iki farklı gösterge olan uluslararası turist harcamaları ve uluslararası gelen turist sayısı değişkenlerine ait çeyrek yıllık verileri kullanarak turizmin ekonomik büyümenin bir aracı olup olmadığını incelemektir. Çalışmada, ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılarak uluslararası turizmin hacminden turist harcamaları ve gelen turist sayısı değişkenlerinin her ikisinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik bulunmuştur. Bu sonuca göre Türkiye örneği turizmin önderliğinde büyüme hipotezini desteklemektedir.

Keywords

• Türkiye,Uluslararası Turizm,Ekonomik Büyüme,Nedensellik

References

1. Balaguer, J. and M. Cantavella-Jorda (2002), “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: the Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34, 877–884.
2. Bhagwati, J. and T. Srinivason (1979), “Trade Policy and Development”, in R. Dornbusch and J. Frenkel (Eds.), International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence, pp. 1-35, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
3. Brida, J. G., E. J. S. Carrera and W. A. Risso (2008), “Tourism’s Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth”, Economics Bulletin, 3(21), 1-8.
4. Brohman, J. (1996), “New directions in tourism for Third World Development”, Annals of Tourism Research, 23, 48-70.
5. Carruth, A., A. Dickerson, and A. Henley (2000), “Econometric Modelling of UK Aggregate Investment: The Role of Profits and Uncertainty”, The Manchester School, 3, 276-300.
6. Dickey, D. and W. A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive time Series with a Unit Root” Econometrica, 49, 1057–1072.
7. Dritsakis, N. (2004), “Tourism As a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis”, Tourism Economics, 10(3), 305-316.
8. Elliott, G., T. J. Rothenberg and J. H. Stock (1996), “Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root”, Econometrica, 64, 813–836.

9. Engle, R. and C. Granger (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
10. Gonzalo, J. (1994), “Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-Run Equilibrium Relationships”, Journal of Econometrics, 60, 203–233.
11. Gunduz, L. and A. Hatemi-J (2005), “Is The Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey?”, Applied Economics Letters, 12, 499-504.
12. Hakkio, C. S. and M. Rush (1991), “Cointegration: How Short is the Long-Run?”, Journal of International Money and Finance, December, 571–581.
13. Helpman, E. and P. Krugman (1985), Market Structure and Foreign Trade, Cambridge: MIT Press.
14. Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
15. Johansen, S. (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometrica, 59, 1551–1580.
16. Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Applications to the Demand For Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
17. Kaplan, M. and T. Çelik (2008), “The Impact of Tourism in Economic Performance: The Case of Turkey”, The International Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 2 (1), 13-18.
18. S. T. Katircioglu (2009), “Revisiting the Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis for Turkey Using the Bounds Test and Johansen Approach for Cointegration”, Tourism Management, 30, 17-20.
19. Kim, H. J., M. Chen and S. Jan (2006), “Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: The Case of Taiwan”, Tourism Management, 27, 925-933.
20. Krueger, A. (1980), “Trade Policy as an Input to Development”, American Economic Review, 70, 188-292.
21. OECD (2008), Online Data Delivery System. http://webnet.oecd.org/wbos/index.aspx (Access Date: 05June2009).
22. Oh, C. (2005), “The Contribution of Tourism Development to Economic Growth in The Korean Economy” Tourism Management, 26(1), 39–44.
23. Ongan, S. and D. M. Demiroz (2005), “The Contribution of Tourism to the Long-Run Turkish Economic Growth”, Ekonomický časopis[Journal of Economics], 53(9), 880–894.
24. MacKinnon, J. G. (1991), “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests”, In R. F. Engle and C. W. J. Granger (Eds), Long-run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration: Chapter 13, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
25. Mah, J. S., (2000), “An Empirical Examination of The Disaggregated Import Demand of Korea: The Case Of Information Technology Products”, Journal of Asian Economics, 11, 237–244.
26. McKinnon, R. (1964), “Foreign Exchange Constrain in Economic Development and Efficient Aid Allocation”, Economic Journal, 74, 388-409.
27. Pesaran, M. H. and B. Pesaran, (1997) Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
28. Pesaran, M. H. and Y. Shin (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration”, In. S. Strom (Ed.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
29. Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289– 326.
30. Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Perron (1988), “Testing For a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”. Biometrica, 75, 335–346.
31. Savaş, B. (2002), An Empirical Investigation of Monetary Dynamics in a High Inflation Country: The Case of Turkey. Unpublished PhD dissertation. University of Wales, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom.
32. Stock, J. and M. Watson (1988), “Testing for Common Trends”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83 (December), 1097-1107.
33. Tang, C. T. (2001), “Bank Lending and Inflation in Malaysia: Assessment from Unrestricted Error-Correction Models”, Asian Economic Journal, 15(3), 275– 289.
34. Tang, C. T. (2002), “Demand for M3 and Expenditure Components in Malaysia: An Assessment from Bounds Testing Approach”, Applied Economic Letters, 9, 721– 725.
35. TCRT (The Central Bank of Republic of Turkey) (2008), Online Data Delivery System. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr, (Access Date: 05June2009).
36. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism of Turkey (2008), Tourism Statistics 2000-2008. http://www.tourism.gov.tr, (Access Date: 05June2009).
37. TURKSTAT (Turkish Statistical Institute) (2008), Economic Indicators 2008. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr, (Access Date: 05June2009).
38. TURKSTAT (Turkish Statistical Institute) (2007), Turkey's Statistical Yearbook 2007. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr, (Access Date: 05June2009).
39. TURKSTAT (Turkish Statistical Institute) (2006), Turkey's Statistical Yearbook 2006. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr, (Access Date: 05June2009).
40. TURKSTAT (Turkish Statistical Institute) (2006), Statistical Indicators 1923-2006. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr, (Access Date: 05June2009).