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TÜRKİYE’DE DÖVİZ KURU VE DIŞ BORÇ İLİŞKİSİ

Year 2020, Volume: 16 Issue: 1, 47 - 61, 10.03.2020
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.700844

Abstract

Ülkeler için dış borç, ülkenin döviz kurunu etkileme eğilimi olan döviz talebini
içermektedir. Bu noktada Uluslararası sermaye hareketlerine yönelik parasalcı yaklaşım, para
talebindeki değişmenin döviz kurunu etkileme kanalına açıklık getirmektedir. Ayrıca, döviz
kuru da dolaylı olarak dış borcu etkilemektedir. Literatüre önemli katkı sağlayacak, 1970-2018
dönemine yönelik bu çalışmada spesifik ve farklı yöntemlerden VAR ve Granger nedensellik
analizleri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda, dış borç ve döviz kuru arasında istikrarlı
bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

References

  • Akduğan, U. (2017). Türkiye’de dış borç stokunun belirleyicileri. Business and Economics Research Journal, 8(2), 183-202.
  • Akıncı, M., Kolçak, M., & Yılmaz, Ö. (2013). Yurtiçi orijinal günahın belirleyicileri: Türkiye ekonomisi için robust regresyon analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 165, 140-165.
  • Alam, N., & Taib, F. M. (2013). An investigation of the relationship of external public debt with budget deficit, current account deficit, and exchange rate depreciation in debt trap and non-debt trap countries. European Scientific Journal, 9(22), 144-158.
  • Auboin, M., & Ruta, M. (2011). The relationship between exchange rates and ınternational trade: A review of economic literatüre. Retrieved October 2, 2011, from https://www.econstor.eu/ bitstream/10419/57610/1/672646870.pdf
  • Awan, A., Asghar, N., & Rehman, H. U. (2011). The impact of exchange rate, fiscal deficit and terms of trade on external debt of Pakistan. Australian Journal of Business and Management Research, 1(3), 10.
  • Bal, H., & Özdemir, P. (2012). Orijinal günah göstergelerinde kurumsal yapı ve yurt içi borçlanma piyasasının etkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir değerlendirme. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 49(573), 5-14. Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometrics. Fourth Edition, Heidelberg: Springer.
  • Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.
  • Dornbusch, R. (1984). External debt, budget deficits and disequilibrium exchange rates. Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w1336.pdf
  • Eichengreen, B., & Hausmann R. (1999). Exchange rates and financial fragility. NBER Working Paper, 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  • Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series. Second Edition, New York: John Wiley and Sons. Gök, A. (2006). Alternatif döviz kuru sistemleri. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 21(1), 131-145.
  • Granger, C. W. J., (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, 424-438.
  • Greene, W. H. (2000). Econometric analysis. Fourth Edition, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
  • Greenidge, K., Drakes, L., & Craigwell, R. (2010). The external public debt in the Caribbean Community. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(3), 418-431.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic econometrics. Fourth Edition, New York: The McGraw – Hill/Irwin Companies.
  • Ijeoma, N. B. (2013). An empirical analysis of the impact of debt on the Nigerian economy. AFRREV IJAH: An International Journal of Arts and Humanities, 2(3), 165-191.
  • Imimole, B., Imoughele, L. E., & Okhuese, M. A. (2014). Determinants and sustainability of external debt in a deregulated economy: A cointegration analysis from Nigeria (1986-2010). American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 4(6), 201-214.
  • Kaplan, F., & Yapraklı S. (2014). Ekonomik kırılganlık endeksi göstergelerinin döviz kuru üzerindeki etkileri: Kırılgan 12 ülke üzerine panel veri analizi. Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(3), 111-121.
  • Kouladoum, J. C. (2018). External debts and real exchange rates in developing countries: Evidence from Chad. Retrieved October 2, 2018, from https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/88440/1/MPRA_ paper_88440.pdf
  • Kutlar, A. (2009). Uygulamalı ekonometri. 3.Baskı, Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
  • Mussa, M. L. (1984). The theory of exchange rate determination. In J. F. O. Bilson, R. C. Marston (Eds.), NBER book exchange rate theory and practice (pp. 13-78).
  • Mussa, M. L. (1976). The exchange rate, the balance of payments and monetary and fiscal policy under a regime of controlled floating. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 78(2), 229-248.
  • Neaime, S. (2009). Sustainability of exchange rate policies and external public debt in the Mena region. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 1(2), 59-71.
  • Ng’eno, N. K. (2000). The external debt problem of Kenya. In S. Ajayi, M. Khan (Eds.), External debt and capitalflight in sub-Saharan Africa (pp. 128-159). Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
  • Nwanne, T. F. I., & Eze, O. R. (2015). Assessing the effect of external debt servicing and receipt on exchange rate in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(9), 278-286.
  • Odera, Q. A. (2015). An analysis on the effect of external public debt on exchange rate volatility in Kenya. Retrieved September 2, 2015, from http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/bitstream/handle/11295/95259/ Odera_An%20Analysis%20On%20The%20Effect%20Of%20External%20Public%20Debt%20 On%20Exchange%20Rate%20Volatility%20In%20Kenya.pdf?sequence=1
  • Ordu, C. F. (2013). Döviz kuru dış ticaret ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Saheed, Z. S., Sani, I. E., & Idakwoji, B. O. (2015). Impact of public external debt on exchange rate in Nigeria. International Finance and Banking, 2(1), 15-26.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2003). Uluslararası iktisat teori politika ve uygulamaları. 15. Baskı, İstanbul: Güzem Can Yayınları.
  • Sevüktekin, M., & Çınar, M. (2014). Ekonometrik zaman serileri analizi Eviews uygulamalı. 4.Baskı, Bursa: Dora Yayınları.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48.
  • Verbeek, M. (2012). A guide to modern econometrics. Fourth Edition, Chichester West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • World Bank. (2019). Retrieved September 2, 2019, from http://data.worldbank.org
  • Yavuz, H. H. (2009). Kamu borç yönetiminde yabancı para cinsinden borçlanmanın etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 157, 277-292.
  • Yien, L. C., Abdullah, H., & Azam, M. (2017). Granger causality analysis between inflation, debt and exchange rate: Evidence from Malaysia. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 7(1), 189-196.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44.
Year 2020, Volume: 16 Issue: 1, 47 - 61, 10.03.2020
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.700844

Abstract

References

  • Akduğan, U. (2017). Türkiye’de dış borç stokunun belirleyicileri. Business and Economics Research Journal, 8(2), 183-202.
  • Akıncı, M., Kolçak, M., & Yılmaz, Ö. (2013). Yurtiçi orijinal günahın belirleyicileri: Türkiye ekonomisi için robust regresyon analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 165, 140-165.
  • Alam, N., & Taib, F. M. (2013). An investigation of the relationship of external public debt with budget deficit, current account deficit, and exchange rate depreciation in debt trap and non-debt trap countries. European Scientific Journal, 9(22), 144-158.
  • Auboin, M., & Ruta, M. (2011). The relationship between exchange rates and ınternational trade: A review of economic literatüre. Retrieved October 2, 2011, from https://www.econstor.eu/ bitstream/10419/57610/1/672646870.pdf
  • Awan, A., Asghar, N., & Rehman, H. U. (2011). The impact of exchange rate, fiscal deficit and terms of trade on external debt of Pakistan. Australian Journal of Business and Management Research, 1(3), 10.
  • Bal, H., & Özdemir, P. (2012). Orijinal günah göstergelerinde kurumsal yapı ve yurt içi borçlanma piyasasının etkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir değerlendirme. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 49(573), 5-14. Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometrics. Fourth Edition, Heidelberg: Springer.
  • Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.
  • Dornbusch, R. (1984). External debt, budget deficits and disequilibrium exchange rates. Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w1336.pdf
  • Eichengreen, B., & Hausmann R. (1999). Exchange rates and financial fragility. NBER Working Paper, 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  • Enders, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series. Second Edition, New York: John Wiley and Sons. Gök, A. (2006). Alternatif döviz kuru sistemleri. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 21(1), 131-145.
  • Granger, C. W. J., (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, 424-438.
  • Greene, W. H. (2000). Econometric analysis. Fourth Edition, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
  • Greenidge, K., Drakes, L., & Craigwell, R. (2010). The external public debt in the Caribbean Community. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(3), 418-431.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic econometrics. Fourth Edition, New York: The McGraw – Hill/Irwin Companies.
  • Ijeoma, N. B. (2013). An empirical analysis of the impact of debt on the Nigerian economy. AFRREV IJAH: An International Journal of Arts and Humanities, 2(3), 165-191.
  • Imimole, B., Imoughele, L. E., & Okhuese, M. A. (2014). Determinants and sustainability of external debt in a deregulated economy: A cointegration analysis from Nigeria (1986-2010). American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 4(6), 201-214.
  • Kaplan, F., & Yapraklı S. (2014). Ekonomik kırılganlık endeksi göstergelerinin döviz kuru üzerindeki etkileri: Kırılgan 12 ülke üzerine panel veri analizi. Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(3), 111-121.
  • Kouladoum, J. C. (2018). External debts and real exchange rates in developing countries: Evidence from Chad. Retrieved October 2, 2018, from https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/88440/1/MPRA_ paper_88440.pdf
  • Kutlar, A. (2009). Uygulamalı ekonometri. 3.Baskı, Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
  • Mussa, M. L. (1984). The theory of exchange rate determination. In J. F. O. Bilson, R. C. Marston (Eds.), NBER book exchange rate theory and practice (pp. 13-78).
  • Mussa, M. L. (1976). The exchange rate, the balance of payments and monetary and fiscal policy under a regime of controlled floating. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 78(2), 229-248.
  • Neaime, S. (2009). Sustainability of exchange rate policies and external public debt in the Mena region. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 1(2), 59-71.
  • Ng’eno, N. K. (2000). The external debt problem of Kenya. In S. Ajayi, M. Khan (Eds.), External debt and capitalflight in sub-Saharan Africa (pp. 128-159). Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
  • Nwanne, T. F. I., & Eze, O. R. (2015). Assessing the effect of external debt servicing and receipt on exchange rate in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(9), 278-286.
  • Odera, Q. A. (2015). An analysis on the effect of external public debt on exchange rate volatility in Kenya. Retrieved September 2, 2015, from http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/bitstream/handle/11295/95259/ Odera_An%20Analysis%20On%20The%20Effect%20Of%20External%20Public%20Debt%20 On%20Exchange%20Rate%20Volatility%20In%20Kenya.pdf?sequence=1
  • Ordu, C. F. (2013). Döviz kuru dış ticaret ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Saheed, Z. S., Sani, I. E., & Idakwoji, B. O. (2015). Impact of public external debt on exchange rate in Nigeria. International Finance and Banking, 2(1), 15-26.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2003). Uluslararası iktisat teori politika ve uygulamaları. 15. Baskı, İstanbul: Güzem Can Yayınları.
  • Sevüktekin, M., & Çınar, M. (2014). Ekonometrik zaman serileri analizi Eviews uygulamalı. 4.Baskı, Bursa: Dora Yayınları.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48.
  • Verbeek, M. (2012). A guide to modern econometrics. Fourth Edition, Chichester West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • World Bank. (2019). Retrieved September 2, 2019, from http://data.worldbank.org
  • Yavuz, H. H. (2009). Kamu borç yönetiminde yabancı para cinsinden borçlanmanın etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 157, 277-292.
  • Yien, L. C., Abdullah, H., & Azam, M. (2017). Granger causality analysis between inflation, debt and exchange rate: Evidence from Malaysia. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 7(1), 189-196.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44.
There are 35 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Havanur Ergün Tatar This is me 0000-0002-4284-9083

Serdar Erdoğan This is me 0000-0001-8594-3929

Publication Date March 10, 2020
Submission Date January 6, 2020
Acceptance Date February 27, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 16 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ergün Tatar, H., & Erdoğan, S. (2020). TÜRKİYE’DE DÖVİZ KURU VE DIŞ BORÇ İLİŞKİSİ. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 16(1), 47-61. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.700844