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DETERMINATION OF THE MIDDLE INCOME TRAP: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Year 2018, Volume: 14 Issue: 1, 1 - 20, 01.01.2018
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2018137570

Abstract

The concept of middle income trap has become one of the most debated topics in the economic literature in recent years. Middle income trap is defined as per capita income of the middle income countries remains the same for many years witHout increasing. From this point of view, the aim of this study is to contribute determining which of the middle-income countries are in the trap or not. In order to achieve this aim, following the approach developed by Robertson and Ye 2013 , ADF unit root test and two structural breaks unit root tests developed by Narayan and Popp 2010 were performed. The results of the analysis sHow that while 35 countries of the 71 middle-income countries using per capita income for the period 1950-2014 were in the middle-income trap, 36 countries were not in the trap. Turkey has been in the group of non-middle income trap countries

References

  • Aiyar, S., Duval, R., Puy, D., Wu, Y. & Zhang, L. (2013). Growth slowdowns and the middle- income trap. IMF Working Paper.
  • Bozkurt, E., Bedir, S., Özdemir, D., & Çakmak, E. (2014). Orta gelir tuzağı ve Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 167, 22-39.
  • Bozkurt, H. (2007). Zaman serileri analizi. 1. Baskı, Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
  • Cai, F. (2012). Is there a middle-income trap? Theories, experiences and relevance to China. China & World Economy, 20(1), 49-61.
  • Carnovale, M. (2012). Developing countries and the middle income trap: Predetermined to fall?. New York University Leonard N. Stern ScHool of Business, Bachelor of Science, New York.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). LikeliHood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Domar, E. D. (1946). Capital expansion, rate of growth and employment. Econometrica, 14(2), 137-147.
  • Eichengreen, B., Park, D., & Shin, K. (2012). When fast-growing economies slow down: International evidence and implications for China. Asian Economic Papers, 11(1), 42- 87.
  • Eichengreen, B., Park, D., & Shin, K. (2014). Growth slowdown redux. Japan and World Economy, 32, 65-84.
  • Enders, W. (2010). Applied econometric time series. 3. Edition, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
  • Felipe, J., Abdon, A., & Kumar, U. (2012). Tracking the middle income trap: What is it, who is in it, and why?. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper.
  • Garrett, G. (2004). Globalization’s missing middle. Foreign Affairs, November-December, 84- 96.
  • Gill, I., & Kharas, H. (2007). An East Asian renaissance: Ideas for economic growth. Washington: World Bank Publications.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (2010). Temel ekonometri. (Çev. Ü. Şenesen, G. G. Şenesen), 7. Baskı, İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
  • Hall, A. (1994). Testing for a unit root in time series with pretest data-based model selection. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 12(4), 461-470.
  • Heston, A., Summers, R., & Aten, B. (2012). Penn world table version 7.1, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania.
  • Hout, A. V. D. (2014). Escaping the middle income trap: The importance of inclusiveness for further growth. Erasmus ScHool of Economics, Unpublished Master Thesis, Rotterdam.
  • Im, F. G., & Rosenblatt, D. (2013). Middle-income traps a conceptual and empirical survey. The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper.
  • Kharas, H., & Kohli, H. (2011). What is the middle income trap, why do countries fall into it, and How can it be avoided?. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3), 281-289.
  • Koçak, E., & Bulut, Ü. (2014). Orta gelir tuzağı: Teorik çerçeve, Ampirik Yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama. Maliye Dergisi, 167, 1-21.
  • Narayan, P. K., & Popp, S. (2010). A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.
  • Öz, S. (2012). Orta gelir tuzağı. Ekonomik Araştırma Forumu (EAF) Politika Notu.
  • Robertson, P. E., & Ye, L. (2013). On the existence of a middle income trap. University of Western Australia Economics Discussion Paper, No: 13.12.
  • Schmidt, P., & Phillips, P. (1992). LM tests for a unit root in the presence of deterministic trends. Oxford Bull. Econ. Stat. 54(3), 257–287.
  • Sevüktekin, M., & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2010). Ekonometrik zaman serileri analizi: E-views uygulamalı. Geliştirilmiş 3. Basım), Ankara: Nobel Yayıncılık.
  • The World Bank. (2013). China 2030: Building a modern, harmonious and creative society. The World Bank Report, Washington.
  • THo, T. V. (2013). The middle-income trap: Issues for members of the association of southeast asian nations. VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 29(2), 107-128.
  • Ünlü, F. (2016), Orta gelir tuzağı ve yenilik: Teori ve uygulama. Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Kayseri: Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Woo, W. T. (2012). China meets the middle-income trap: The large potHoles in the road to catching-up. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4), 313-336.
  • Yeldan, E., Taşçı, K., Voyvoda, E., & Özsan, M. E. (2012), Orta gelir tuzağından çıkış: Hangi Türkiye?, Cilt 1: Makro/bölgesel/sektörel analiz. TÜRKONFED, İstanbul.
  • Yeldan, E., Taşçı, K., Voyvoda, E., & Özsan, M. E. (2013). Orta gelir tuzağından çıkış: Hangi Türkiye?, Cilt 2: Bölgesel kalkınma ve ikili tuzaktan çıkış stratejileri. TÜRKONFED, İstanbul.
  • Yılmaz, G. (2014). Turkish middle income trap and less skilled human capital, TCMB Working Paper.
  • Zhuang, J., Vandenberg, P., & Huang, Y. (2012). Growing beyond the low-cost advantage: How the people’s Republic of China can avoid the middle income trap, Asia Development Bank, Philippines.

ORTA GELİR TUZAĞININ BELİRLENMESİ: EKONOMETRİK ANALİZ

Year 2018, Volume: 14 Issue: 1, 1 - 20, 01.01.2018
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2018137570

Abstract

Orta gelir tuzağı kavramı son yıllarda iktisat literatüründe en çok tartışılan konulardan birisi haline gelmiştir. Orta gelir tuzağı, orta gelirli ülkelerin kişi başına düşen gelirlerinin artmayarak uzun yıllar aynı kalması olarak tanımlanır. Buradan hareketle bu çalışmanın amacı, orta gelirli ülkelerden hangilerinin tuzakta olup olmadıklarının tespit edilmesine katkıda bulunmaktır. Bu amacı gerçekleştirmek için Robertson ve Ye’nin 2013 yaklaşımı takip edilerek ADF birim kök testi ve Narayan ve Popp 2010 tarafından geliştirilen iki yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi yapılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, 1950-2014 dönemi için kişi başına düşen gelir verileri kullanılan 71 orta gelirli ülkeden 35’i orta gelir tuz ağında iken 36 ülke tuzakta olmadığını göstermiştir. Türkiye orta gelir tuzağında olmayan ülkeler grubunda yer almıştır.

References

  • Aiyar, S., Duval, R., Puy, D., Wu, Y. & Zhang, L. (2013). Growth slowdowns and the middle- income trap. IMF Working Paper.
  • Bozkurt, E., Bedir, S., Özdemir, D., & Çakmak, E. (2014). Orta gelir tuzağı ve Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 167, 22-39.
  • Bozkurt, H. (2007). Zaman serileri analizi. 1. Baskı, Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
  • Cai, F. (2012). Is there a middle-income trap? Theories, experiences and relevance to China. China & World Economy, 20(1), 49-61.
  • Carnovale, M. (2012). Developing countries and the middle income trap: Predetermined to fall?. New York University Leonard N. Stern ScHool of Business, Bachelor of Science, New York.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). LikeliHood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Domar, E. D. (1946). Capital expansion, rate of growth and employment. Econometrica, 14(2), 137-147.
  • Eichengreen, B., Park, D., & Shin, K. (2012). When fast-growing economies slow down: International evidence and implications for China. Asian Economic Papers, 11(1), 42- 87.
  • Eichengreen, B., Park, D., & Shin, K. (2014). Growth slowdown redux. Japan and World Economy, 32, 65-84.
  • Enders, W. (2010). Applied econometric time series. 3. Edition, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
  • Felipe, J., Abdon, A., & Kumar, U. (2012). Tracking the middle income trap: What is it, who is in it, and why?. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper.
  • Garrett, G. (2004). Globalization’s missing middle. Foreign Affairs, November-December, 84- 96.
  • Gill, I., & Kharas, H. (2007). An East Asian renaissance: Ideas for economic growth. Washington: World Bank Publications.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (2010). Temel ekonometri. (Çev. Ü. Şenesen, G. G. Şenesen), 7. Baskı, İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
  • Hall, A. (1994). Testing for a unit root in time series with pretest data-based model selection. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 12(4), 461-470.
  • Heston, A., Summers, R., & Aten, B. (2012). Penn world table version 7.1, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania.
  • Hout, A. V. D. (2014). Escaping the middle income trap: The importance of inclusiveness for further growth. Erasmus ScHool of Economics, Unpublished Master Thesis, Rotterdam.
  • Im, F. G., & Rosenblatt, D. (2013). Middle-income traps a conceptual and empirical survey. The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper.
  • Kharas, H., & Kohli, H. (2011). What is the middle income trap, why do countries fall into it, and How can it be avoided?. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3), 281-289.
  • Koçak, E., & Bulut, Ü. (2014). Orta gelir tuzağı: Teorik çerçeve, Ampirik Yaklaşımlar ve Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama. Maliye Dergisi, 167, 1-21.
  • Narayan, P. K., & Popp, S. (2010). A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.
  • Öz, S. (2012). Orta gelir tuzağı. Ekonomik Araştırma Forumu (EAF) Politika Notu.
  • Robertson, P. E., & Ye, L. (2013). On the existence of a middle income trap. University of Western Australia Economics Discussion Paper, No: 13.12.
  • Schmidt, P., & Phillips, P. (1992). LM tests for a unit root in the presence of deterministic trends. Oxford Bull. Econ. Stat. 54(3), 257–287.
  • Sevüktekin, M., & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2010). Ekonometrik zaman serileri analizi: E-views uygulamalı. Geliştirilmiş 3. Basım), Ankara: Nobel Yayıncılık.
  • The World Bank. (2013). China 2030: Building a modern, harmonious and creative society. The World Bank Report, Washington.
  • THo, T. V. (2013). The middle-income trap: Issues for members of the association of southeast asian nations. VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 29(2), 107-128.
  • Ünlü, F. (2016), Orta gelir tuzağı ve yenilik: Teori ve uygulama. Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Kayseri: Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Woo, W. T. (2012). China meets the middle-income trap: The large potHoles in the road to catching-up. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10(4), 313-336.
  • Yeldan, E., Taşçı, K., Voyvoda, E., & Özsan, M. E. (2012), Orta gelir tuzağından çıkış: Hangi Türkiye?, Cilt 1: Makro/bölgesel/sektörel analiz. TÜRKONFED, İstanbul.
  • Yeldan, E., Taşçı, K., Voyvoda, E., & Özsan, M. E. (2013). Orta gelir tuzağından çıkış: Hangi Türkiye?, Cilt 2: Bölgesel kalkınma ve ikili tuzaktan çıkış stratejileri. TÜRKONFED, İstanbul.
  • Yılmaz, G. (2014). Turkish middle income trap and less skilled human capital, TCMB Working Paper.
  • Zhuang, J., Vandenberg, P., & Huang, Y. (2012). Growing beyond the low-cost advantage: How the people’s Republic of China can avoid the middle income trap, Asia Development Bank, Philippines.
There are 33 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Fatma Ünlü This is me

Rıfat Yıldız This is me

Publication Date January 1, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 14 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ünlü, F., & Yıldız, R. (2018). ORTA GELİR TUZAĞININ BELİRLENMESİ: EKONOMETRİK ANALİZ. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 14(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2018137570