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WHY DOES INFLATION RISE, HOW DOES IT FALL: THE TURKISH CASE

Year 2016, Volume: 12 Issue: 30, 1 - 20, 01.12.2016
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.20163024222

Abstract

In this study, I tried to ascertain by narrative method that why high inflation was the case from the 1970s to the 2000s in Turkey and how policymakers managed to decrease inflation to one-digits in 2000s. I suggest that fiscal deficits, monetization and increases in interest burden may have a significant role in the steep rise of inflation in Turkey. Moreover, interaction between these factors and high inflation seem to have a significant role in lingering inflation. The end of monetization in 1997 and fiscal discipline in the 2000s may have a key role in decreasing inflation to one-digits in Turkey

References

  • Alper, C. E., & Ucer, M. (1998). Some observations on Turkish inflation: A random walk down the past decade. Bogazici Journal, 12(1), 7-38.
  • Dibooğlu, S., & Kibritçioğlu, A. (2001). Inflation, output, and stabilization in a high inflation economy: Turkey, 1980-2000. Office of Research Working Papers(01-0112). University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Commerce and Business Administration.
  • Dibooğlu, S., & Kibritçioğlu, A. (2004). Inflation, output growth, and stabilization in Turkey, 1980–2002. Journal of Economics and Business, 56(1), 43-61.
  • Ergin, A. (2015). Döviz kuru ve enflasyon arasındaki geçiş etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3), 13-29.
  • Gündoğdu, A. (2015). Küresel finans krizi sürerken enflasyon ile mücadelede enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulamasının analizi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (15).
  • Kia, A. (2010). Money, deficits, debts and inflation in emerging countries: evidence from Turkey. The Global Review of Accounting and Finance, 1(1), 136-151.
  • Koyuncu, F. T. (2014). Causality network between budget deficit, money supply and inflation: An application to Turkey. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 5(10).
  • Kresge, S., & Wenar, L. (1994). Hayek on Hayek: An autobiographical dialogue: Routledge.
  • Maddison, A. (2007). The world economy volume 1: A millennial perspective, volume 2: Historical statistics. Academic Foundation.
  • Metin, K. (1995). An integrated analysis of Turkish inflation. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 57(4), 513-531.
  • Metin, K. (1998). The relationship between inflation and the budget deficit in Turkey. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16(4), 412-422.
  • Mises, L. V. (2010). Money and inflation-A synthesis of several lectures. Auburn: Ludwig von Mises Institute.
  • Öṅiş, Z., & Özmucur, S. (1990). Exchange rates, inflation and money supply in Turkey: Testing the vicious circle hypothesis. Journal of development economics, 32(1), 133-154.
  • Özdemir, K. A., & Saygılı, M. (2009). Monetary pressures and inflation dynamics in Turkey: evidence from p-star model. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 45(6), 69-86.
  • Sahin, I., & Karanfil, M. (2015). Türkiye ekonomisinde 1980-2013 dönemi para arzinin enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi. Business and Economics Research Journal, 6(4), 97.
  • Temin, P., & Toniolo, G. (2008). The world economy between the wars. Oxford University Press.
  • Togan, S. (1987). The influence of money and the rate of interest on the rate of inflation in a financially repressed economy: The case of Turkey. Applied Economics, 19(12), 1585-1601.
  • Us, V. (2004). Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: Some prospects for the Turkish economy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(8), 1003-1013.

ENFLASYON NEDEN YÜKSELİR, NASIL DÜŞER: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2016, Volume: 12 Issue: 30, 1 - 20, 01.12.2016
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.20163024222

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 1970’lerden 2000’lere kadar neden yüksek enflasyon yaşandığını, 2000’lerle birlikte de enflasyonun nasıl tek haneli rakamlara indirilebildiği betimsel analizle ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Sonuçta, Türkiye’de enflasyonun ciddi biçimde yükselmesinde; bütçe açıklarının, parasallaşmanın ve faiz yükündeki artışın önemli derecede bir etkisinin olabileceği ortaya konmuştur. Dahası, bu faktörler ile yüksek enflasyon arasındaki karşılıklı etkileşimin enflasyonun uzun bir süre boyunca düşürülememesinde belirli düzeyde bir paya sahip olabileceği düşünülmektedir. Enflasyonun tek haneli rakamlara indirilebilmesinde ise 1997’de merkez bankasının bütçe açıklarını para basarak finanse etmeyi bırakmasının ve 2000’li yıllarla birlikte bütçe açıklarının ortadan kaldırılmasının anahtar bir role sahip olduğu söylenebilir.

References

  • Alper, C. E., & Ucer, M. (1998). Some observations on Turkish inflation: A random walk down the past decade. Bogazici Journal, 12(1), 7-38.
  • Dibooğlu, S., & Kibritçioğlu, A. (2001). Inflation, output, and stabilization in a high inflation economy: Turkey, 1980-2000. Office of Research Working Papers(01-0112). University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Commerce and Business Administration.
  • Dibooğlu, S., & Kibritçioğlu, A. (2004). Inflation, output growth, and stabilization in Turkey, 1980–2002. Journal of Economics and Business, 56(1), 43-61.
  • Ergin, A. (2015). Döviz kuru ve enflasyon arasındaki geçiş etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3), 13-29.
  • Gündoğdu, A. (2015). Küresel finans krizi sürerken enflasyon ile mücadelede enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulamasının analizi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (15).
  • Kia, A. (2010). Money, deficits, debts and inflation in emerging countries: evidence from Turkey. The Global Review of Accounting and Finance, 1(1), 136-151.
  • Koyuncu, F. T. (2014). Causality network between budget deficit, money supply and inflation: An application to Turkey. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 5(10).
  • Kresge, S., & Wenar, L. (1994). Hayek on Hayek: An autobiographical dialogue: Routledge.
  • Maddison, A. (2007). The world economy volume 1: A millennial perspective, volume 2: Historical statistics. Academic Foundation.
  • Metin, K. (1995). An integrated analysis of Turkish inflation. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 57(4), 513-531.
  • Metin, K. (1998). The relationship between inflation and the budget deficit in Turkey. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16(4), 412-422.
  • Mises, L. V. (2010). Money and inflation-A synthesis of several lectures. Auburn: Ludwig von Mises Institute.
  • Öṅiş, Z., & Özmucur, S. (1990). Exchange rates, inflation and money supply in Turkey: Testing the vicious circle hypothesis. Journal of development economics, 32(1), 133-154.
  • Özdemir, K. A., & Saygılı, M. (2009). Monetary pressures and inflation dynamics in Turkey: evidence from p-star model. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 45(6), 69-86.
  • Sahin, I., & Karanfil, M. (2015). Türkiye ekonomisinde 1980-2013 dönemi para arzinin enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi. Business and Economics Research Journal, 6(4), 97.
  • Temin, P., & Toniolo, G. (2008). The world economy between the wars. Oxford University Press.
  • Togan, S. (1987). The influence of money and the rate of interest on the rate of inflation in a financially repressed economy: The case of Turkey. Applied Economics, 19(12), 1585-1601.
  • Us, V. (2004). Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: Some prospects for the Turkish economy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(8), 1003-1013.
There are 18 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Mevlüt Tatlıyer

Publication Date December 1, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 12 Issue: 30

Cite

APA Tatlıyer, M. (2016). ENFLASYON NEDEN YÜKSELİR, NASIL DÜŞER: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(30), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.20163024222