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POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY AS A SOURCE OF ELECTIONS AND COMPANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS: AN INVESTIGATION ON BIST REGISTERED COMPANIES

Year 2016, ICAFR 16 Özel Sayısı, 743 - 755, 01.10.2016

Hasan Ayaydın İbrahim Karaaslan

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to examine the effects of political uncertainty on company investment decisions. For this purpose, the study consists of 147 firms operating in the industrial sector in Istanbul stock exchange BIST for the period of 2008-2013. The relationship between political uncertainty and company investment decisions has been analyzed for the quarter data period by using panel data analysis. analysis indicated that there is no statistically significant relationship between the 29th of march 2009 general election of local administrations variable and the 12th of September 2010 constitutional amendment referendum variable as an indicator for the political uncertainty and company investment decisions, although there is a negative statistically significant relationship between the 12th of June 2011 parliamentary general election variable as an indicator for the political uncertainty and company investment decisions. This result sends a strong message that political uncertainty has a significant impact on real economic outcomes-political uncertainty can deteriorate company investment decisions because of inferior capital allocation. this founding implying that firm manager and investors not perceive the 29th of march 2009 general election of local administrations and the 12th of September 2010 constitutional amendment referendum as an uncertainty sources, but perceive the 12th of June 2011 parliamentary general election as an uncertainty sources. the study examining the impact of political uncertainty on company investment decisions on has not been found. This aspect of the study is expected to fill this gap in the literature

Keywords

Political Uncertainty Elections Firm Investment

References

  • Abel, A. B. & Eberly, J.C. (1996). Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility, Review of Economic Studies, 63, 581-593.
  • Badertscher, B., Shroff, N. & White, H.D. (2013). Externalities of Public Firm Presence: Evidence From Private Firms Investment Decisions”, Journal of Financial Economics, 109, 682-706.
  • Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. & Davis, S.J. (2013). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. Chicago Booth Paper No. 13-02.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98, 85– 106.
  • Bialkowski, J., Gottschalk, K. & Wisniewski, T.P. (2008). Stock Market Volatility around National Elections. Journal of Banking and Finance, 32, 1941–1953.
  • Bloom, N., Bond, S. & Reenen, J.V. (2006). Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics, Review of Economic Studies, 74, 391–415.
  • Boutchkova, M., Doshi, H., Durnev, A. Molchanov, A. (2012). Precarious politics and return volatility, Review of Financial Studies 25, 1111–1154.
  • Ding, S., Guariglia, A. & Knight, J. (2013). Investment And Financing Constraints in China: Does Working Capital Management Make A Difference?, Journal of Banking & Finance, 37, 1400-1507.
  • Durnev, A. (2012, January). The Real Effects of Political Uncertainty. Unpublished working paper. University of Iowa.
  • Gulen, H. & Ion, M. 2013. Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment. Purdue University Mimeo.
  • Hartman, R. (1972). The Effects of Price and Cost Uncertainty on Investment. Journal of Economic Theory, 5, 258–266.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification Tests in Econometrics”, Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • Hausman, J. A. & Taylor, W. E. (1981).‘Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects’, Econometrica, 49(6), 1377–1398.
  • ICRG (2013).Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2013, http://www.prsgroup.com/ ICRG _Methodology.aspx #CompRiskRating
  • Julio, B. & Yook, Y. (2012). Corporate Financial Policy Under Political Uncertainty: International Evidence from National Elections, Journal of Finance, 67, 45–84.
  • Mei, J. & Guo, L. (2004). Political Uncertainty, Financial Crisis, and Market Volatility. European Financial Management, 10, 639–57.
  • Munoz, F. (2013). Liquidity and Firm İnvestment: Evidence for Latin America, Journal of Empirical Finance, 20, 18-29.
  • Wang, Y., Chen, C.R., & Huang, Y.S. (2014). Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment: Evidence from China, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 26, 227-243.
  • Wu, X. & Yeung, C.K. (2012). Firm Growth Type and Capital Structure Persistence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36, 3427–3443.

POLİTİK BELİRSİZLİK KAYNAĞI OLARAK SEÇİMLER VE FİRMA YATIRIM KARARLARI: BIST’E KAYITLI FİRMALAR ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Year 2016, ICAFR 16 Özel Sayısı, 743 - 755, 01.10.2016

Hasan Ayaydın İbrahim Karaaslan

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı politik belirsizliğin firmaların yatırım kararlarına etkisini incelemektir. Bu amaçla çalışma, 2008-2013 dönemine ilişkin olarak; Borsa İstanbul’da BIST sanayi sektöründe faaliyet gösteren 147 firmayı kapsamaktadır. Politik belirsizlik ile firma yatırım kararları arasında ilişki panel veri analizi kullanılarak ilgili dönemdeki çeyrek verilerle analiz edilmektedir. Analiz sonucunda politik belirsizlik göstergesi olarak 29 Mart 2009 Genel mahalli idareler seçimini temsilen kullanılan değişken ve 12 Eylül 2010 Anayasa değişikliği referandumunu temsilen kullanılan değişken ile firma yatırımları arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmezken, 12 Haziran 2011 Milletvekili genel seçimini temsilen kullanılan değişken ile firma yatırımları arasında istatistiksel olarak negatif anlamlı bir ilişkinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuç, seçimlerin belirsizlik nedeniyle verimsiz sermaye tahsisi kanalıyla firma yatırımlarını düşürebilir önermesini doğrulamakta ve bu sonucun politik belirsizliğin reel ekonomik sonuçları üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğu yönünde güçlü bir mesaj verdiği söylenebilir. Bu sonuçlar firma yöneticilerinin ve yatırımcıların 29 Mart 2009 Genel mahalli idareler seçimini ve 12 Eylül 2010 Anayasa değişikliği referandumunu bir belirsizlik olarak algılamadıkları ancak, 12 Haziran 2011 Milletvekili genel seçimini bir belirsizlik ölçüsü olarak algıladıkları şeklinde yorumlanabilir. Türkiye için politik belirsizliklerin firmaların yatırım kararlarına etkisi üzerine firma bazında inceleyen bir çalışmaya rastlanmamıştır. Bu yönüyle çalışmanın literatürdeki bu boşluğu doldurması beklenmektedir.

Keywords

Politik Belirsizlik Seçimler Firma Yatırımları

References

  • Abel, A. B. & Eberly, J.C. (1996). Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility, Review of Economic Studies, 63, 581-593.
  • Badertscher, B., Shroff, N. & White, H.D. (2013). Externalities of Public Firm Presence: Evidence From Private Firms Investment Decisions”, Journal of Financial Economics, 109, 682-706.
  • Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. & Davis, S.J. (2013). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. Chicago Booth Paper No. 13-02.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98, 85– 106.
  • Bialkowski, J., Gottschalk, K. & Wisniewski, T.P. (2008). Stock Market Volatility around National Elections. Journal of Banking and Finance, 32, 1941–1953.
  • Bloom, N., Bond, S. & Reenen, J.V. (2006). Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics, Review of Economic Studies, 74, 391–415.
  • Boutchkova, M., Doshi, H., Durnev, A. Molchanov, A. (2012). Precarious politics and return volatility, Review of Financial Studies 25, 1111–1154.
  • Ding, S., Guariglia, A. & Knight, J. (2013). Investment And Financing Constraints in China: Does Working Capital Management Make A Difference?, Journal of Banking & Finance, 37, 1400-1507.
  • Durnev, A. (2012, January). The Real Effects of Political Uncertainty. Unpublished working paper. University of Iowa.
  • Gulen, H. & Ion, M. 2013. Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment. Purdue University Mimeo.
  • Hartman, R. (1972). The Effects of Price and Cost Uncertainty on Investment. Journal of Economic Theory, 5, 258–266.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification Tests in Econometrics”, Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • Hausman, J. A. & Taylor, W. E. (1981).‘Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects’, Econometrica, 49(6), 1377–1398.
  • ICRG (2013).Erişim Tarihi: 12.06.2013, http://www.prsgroup.com/ ICRG _Methodology.aspx #CompRiskRating
  • Julio, B. & Yook, Y. (2012). Corporate Financial Policy Under Political Uncertainty: International Evidence from National Elections, Journal of Finance, 67, 45–84.
  • Mei, J. & Guo, L. (2004). Political Uncertainty, Financial Crisis, and Market Volatility. European Financial Management, 10, 639–57.
  • Munoz, F. (2013). Liquidity and Firm İnvestment: Evidence for Latin America, Journal of Empirical Finance, 20, 18-29.
  • Wang, Y., Chen, C.R., & Huang, Y.S. (2014). Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment: Evidence from China, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 26, 227-243.
  • Wu, X. & Yeung, C.K. (2012). Firm Growth Type and Capital Structure Persistence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36, 3427–3443.
There are 19 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Hasan Ayaydın This is me

İbrahim Karaaslan This is me

Publication Date October 1, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 ICAFR 16 Özel Sayısı

Cite

APA Ayaydın, H., & Karaaslan, İ. (2016). POLİTİK BELİRSİZLİK KAYNAĞI OLARAK SEÇİMLER VE FİRMA YATIRIM KARARLARI: BIST’E KAYITLI FİRMALAR ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(12), 743-755.