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ESTIMATION OF HAZELNUT EXPORT OF TURKEY AND FORECAST ACCURACIES

Year 2009, Volume: 5 Issue: 10, 77 - 96, 01.12.2009

Abstract

In this study, the hazelnut export of Turkey is explained and then forecasted by the simple econometric cause-effect and the autoregressive moving average cause-effect ARMAX techniques. The hazelnut export quantity can be explained by the foreign exchange rate, and thus the hazelnut export revenue can be explained by hazelnut export quantity as the price theory states. The hazelnut export demand elasticity with respect to the foreign exchange rate is found inelastic while the elasticity of the hazelnut export revenues with respect to quantity is found elastic. The forecasts indicate that both the hazelnut export quantity and revenue of Turkey are expected to rise in the future. The ARMAX type technique is found outperforming the simple econometric cause-effect technique for the 1998-2001 in-sample prediction. However, based on MAPE criterion there existed inconsistency between simple econometric and ARMAX type techniques in outperforming each other in one to four steps ahead out-of-sample forecasting

References

  • Akaike, H. (1981), “Likelihood of A Model and Information Criteria”, Journal of Econometrics, 16, pp. 3-4.
  • Akal, M. (2002), Accuracy Comparison of Forecasting Techniques With Variables on Exchange Rate Series: Turkish Liras Versus United States Dollar, Sakarya University Press. Adapazarı.
  • __ (2003), “Öngörü Tekniklerinin Doğruluk Kıyaslaması: Basit Ekonometrik, Arma ve Armax Teknikleri”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 22, 1, pp. 233-269.
  • __(2004), “Forecasting Turkey’s Tourism Revenues by Armax Technique”, Tourism Management, 25, 5, pp. 565-580.
  • Box, G.E and Jenkins, G.M. (1970), Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control,Holden Day, San Francisco.
  • Der, G. and Everitt, B. (2002), A Handbook of Statistical Analyses Using SAS, Chapman & Hall/CRC, New York.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, pp. 427-431.
  • Fiskobirlik (2006, 2009), Hazelnut Export Statistics, http://fiskobirlik.org.tr/istatis.htm. International Monetary Fund (2001, 2004), International Financial Statistics Yearbook, IMF, Washington DC.
  • Kmenta, J. (1986), Elements of Econometrics, Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.
  • Kulaç, A. (1997), “Türk Findik Piyasasi ve Türk Findiğinin Diş Talebinin Tahmini”, Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Trabzon.
  • Li, G., Song, H. and Witt, F. (2005), “ Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting”, Journal of Travel Research, 44, pp. 82-99.
  • Ljung, G. M. and Box, E. P. (1978), “On Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models”, Biometrica, 65, 2, pp. 297-303.
  • Narayan, P.K., Narayan, S., and Prasad, B.C. (2004), “Forecasting Fiji’s Exports and Imports, 2003-2020”, University of The South Pasific Working Paper Series, Paper No: 2004/13.
  • SAS Institute (1988), SAS/ETS User’s Guide, Version 6, First Edition, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC.
  • ___ (2005), SAS Software 9.1.3, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC. Schwartz, G. (1978), ”Estimating the Dimension of a Model”, Annals of Statistics, 6, pp. 461-464.
  • The Office of Agriulture of Turkish Treasury (2004), Fındık Politikası Raporu, http://www.arip.org.tr/documents/raporlar_makaleler/findik_raporu_mart_2004. doc.
  • Yavuz, F., Bürüncü, A., Peker, K, Atsan, T. (2005), “Econometric Modeling of Turkey’s Hazelnut Sector: Implications on Recent Policies”, Turk J Agric For, 29, pp. 1-7.

TÜRKİYE’NİN İÇ FINDIK İHRACATI TAHMİNİ VE ÖNGÖRÜ DOĞRULUĞU

Year 2009, Volume: 5 Issue: 10, 77 - 96, 01.12.2009

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin iç fındık ihracatı basit ekonometrik ve otoregresif hareketli ortalamalar sebep-sonuç teknikleri kullanılarak ARMAX açıklanmış ve bu tekniklere dayanılarak öngörü yapılmıştır. İç fındık ihracatı miktarları yabancı döviz kuruyla, fiyat teorisi çerçevesinde de iç fındık ihracat gelirleri ihracat miktarlarıyla açıklanabilmektedir. Tabii logaritma tabanına göre kurulmuş modellerden iç fındık ihracatının dolar döviz kuru esnekliği inelastik, ihracat gelirlerinin iç fındık ihracatı miktar esnekliği elastik bulunmuştur. Bu modellere bağlı olarak yapılan öngörülerde iç fındık ihracatı ve gelirlerinin artış göstereceği öngörülmüştür. Dönem içi öngörü doğruluğu kıyaslamasında ARMAX tekniğinin basit ekonometrik-sebep sonuç tekniğine üstünlük sağladığı, yani daha doğru öngörüde bulunduğuna ulaşılmıştır. Fakat bir ila dört dönem ileriye dönük öngörü doğruluk kıyaslamasında, MAPE Ortalama Mutlak Yüzde Hata ölçütüne göre tekniklerin doğruluk sıralamasında basit ekonometrik ile ARMAX tipi teknikleri arasında tutarsızlık görülmüştür

References

  • Akaike, H. (1981), “Likelihood of A Model and Information Criteria”, Journal of Econometrics, 16, pp. 3-4.
  • Akal, M. (2002), Accuracy Comparison of Forecasting Techniques With Variables on Exchange Rate Series: Turkish Liras Versus United States Dollar, Sakarya University Press. Adapazarı.
  • __ (2003), “Öngörü Tekniklerinin Doğruluk Kıyaslaması: Basit Ekonometrik, Arma ve Armax Teknikleri”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 22, 1, pp. 233-269.
  • __(2004), “Forecasting Turkey’s Tourism Revenues by Armax Technique”, Tourism Management, 25, 5, pp. 565-580.
  • Box, G.E and Jenkins, G.M. (1970), Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control,Holden Day, San Francisco.
  • Der, G. and Everitt, B. (2002), A Handbook of Statistical Analyses Using SAS, Chapman & Hall/CRC, New York.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, pp. 427-431.
  • Fiskobirlik (2006, 2009), Hazelnut Export Statistics, http://fiskobirlik.org.tr/istatis.htm. International Monetary Fund (2001, 2004), International Financial Statistics Yearbook, IMF, Washington DC.
  • Kmenta, J. (1986), Elements of Econometrics, Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.
  • Kulaç, A. (1997), “Türk Findik Piyasasi ve Türk Findiğinin Diş Talebinin Tahmini”, Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Trabzon.
  • Li, G., Song, H. and Witt, F. (2005), “ Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting”, Journal of Travel Research, 44, pp. 82-99.
  • Ljung, G. M. and Box, E. P. (1978), “On Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models”, Biometrica, 65, 2, pp. 297-303.
  • Narayan, P.K., Narayan, S., and Prasad, B.C. (2004), “Forecasting Fiji’s Exports and Imports, 2003-2020”, University of The South Pasific Working Paper Series, Paper No: 2004/13.
  • SAS Institute (1988), SAS/ETS User’s Guide, Version 6, First Edition, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC.
  • ___ (2005), SAS Software 9.1.3, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC. Schwartz, G. (1978), ”Estimating the Dimension of a Model”, Annals of Statistics, 6, pp. 461-464.
  • The Office of Agriulture of Turkish Treasury (2004), Fındık Politikası Raporu, http://www.arip.org.tr/documents/raporlar_makaleler/findik_raporu_mart_2004. doc.
  • Yavuz, F., Bürüncü, A., Peker, K, Atsan, T. (2005), “Econometric Modeling of Turkey’s Hazelnut Sector: Implications on Recent Policies”, Turk J Agric For, 29, pp. 1-7.
There are 17 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Mustafa Akal This is me

Publication Date December 1, 2009
Published in Issue Year 2009 Volume: 5 Issue: 10

Cite

APA Akal, M. (2009). ESTIMATION OF HAZELNUT EXPORT OF TURKEY AND FORECAST ACCURACIES. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 5(10), 77-96.