BibTex RIS Cite

RELATIONSHIP OF EXPORT-IMPORT, CONVERTIBILITY, EXCHANGE RATE REGIME IN TURKEY

Year 2006, Volume: 2 Issue: 3, 71 - 84, 01.06.2006

Salih Barışık Elmas Demircioğlu

Abstract

Foreign Exchange rates are seen as an important factor in determining level of foreign trade. Despite this the exchange regimes used in different countries do not always give consistent or expected results. This study examines the relationship between the exchange regime used in Turkey and export-import. Analysis shows that there is a weak relationship between exchange rate regimes and export-import. It is found that convertibility is not effective in orientating foreign trading

Keywords

Foreign Exchange Foreign Trade Export Import Convertibility

References

  • Abeysinghe Tilak, Yeok Tan Lin; (1998); “Exchange Rate Appreciation and Export Competitiveness: The Case of Singapure,” Applied Economics, Vol.30, No.1:51- 55.
  • Abuşoğlu, Ömer; (1990); Döviz Kuru ve İhracat Üzerine Etkisi, Ankara: TOBB.
  • Acharyya, Rajat; (1994); “Liberalized Exchange Rate Management System and De- valuation in India: Trade Balance Effect,” Journal of Economic Integration, Vol.3: 210.
  • Akaike, H.; (1969); “Fitting Autoregressions for Predictions,” Annals of the Institute Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 21: 243-247.
  • Arize, C.A.; (1995); “The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on U.S. Exports: An Empirical Investigation,” Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 62, No.1:32-41.
  • Aşıkoğlu Yaman, Merih Uçtum; (1992); “A Critical Evaluation on Pakistan’s Rate Policy in Turkey,” World Development, Vol.20, No.10:1205-1208.
  • Backus, D.; (1998); “The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Per- spects,” Japan and the World Economy, Vol.10:418-431.
  • Dickey, David A., Wayne A. Fuller; (1979); “Distribution of the Estimates for Autore- gressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Journal of the American Statistical Asso- ciation, Vol. 74: 251-276.
  • Dickey, David A., Wayne A. Fuller; (1981); “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Econometrica, Vol.49: 1057-1063.
  • Durusoy T.Ö., İbrahim Tokatlıoğlu; (1997); “Devalüasyon ve J Eğrisi,” Ekonomik Yak- laşım, Y.8, S. 24-25:65-68.
  • Egeli Hüseyin Avni; (1992); “Türkiye’de 1980 Sonrası Dönemde İhracatın Gelişimi ve İzlenen Politikaların Etkinlikleri,” D.E.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, C.7, S.2:115-121.
  • Enders, Walters, (1995); Applied Econometric Time Series, New York, Iowa State Uni- versity.
  • Engle, R. F., C. W. J. Granger; (1987); “Cointegration and Error- Correction: Represen- tation, Estimation and Tasting,” Econometrica, Vol.55: 251-263.
  • Fountas, Stiliano ve Bredin Donal; (1998); “Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Case of Ireland,” Applied Economics Letters, Vol.5:301-323.
  • Granger, C. W. J.; (1986); “Development in the Study of Cointegrated Variables,” Ox- ford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.37, No.3:211-228.
  • Hasan, M. Aynul ve Ashfaque Khan; (1994); “Impact of Devaluation on Pakistan’s External Trade: An Econometric Approach,” The Pakistan Development Review, Vol.33, No.4:1205-1217.
  • Hassan, M. Kabir ve David R. Tufte; (1998); “Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Export Growth in Bangladesh,” Applied Economics,Vol.30, No.2:187-193
  • IMF; International Financial Statistics, http//www.imf.org, 25.05.2004
  • Kwiatkowski, D./Phillips, P.C.B/Schmidt, P./Shin, Y., (1992); “Testing the Null Hy- pothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root.,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol:54, pp.159-178.
  • Johansen S, Juselius, K.; (1990); “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.52:165-178.
  • Pindyck Robert S.,Rubinfeld Daniel L. (1991); Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, McGraw-Hill.
  • Rose K. Andrew; (1991); “The Role of Exchange Rates in a Popular Model of International Trade,” Journal of International Economics,Vol.30,No:3-4:298-320
  • Rose K. Andrew, J. L. Yellen; (1989); “Is There a J-curve?,” Journal of International Economics, Vol.24, No.1
  • TCMB; Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi, www.tcmb.gov.tr.25.05.2004.
  • TCMB; Reel Efektif Reel Döviz Kuruna İlişkin Yönetimsel Açıklama www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/evds/yayin/reel_efktf/YontemselAciklama.pdf, 9.10.2005.
  • Terzi Harun, Ahmet Zengin; (1999); “Kur Politikasının Dış Ticaret Dengesini Sağlama- daki Etkinliği,” Ekonomik Yaklaşım, C.10, S.33:21-35.
  • Usta Can, Uğur Sivri; (2003); “Reel Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişki,” ,http//iktisat.uludag.edu.tr/dergi/11/16-ugur/16-ugur.htm. 22.11.2003.
  • Zengin Ahmet; (1994); “Döviz Kuru Politikası-İhracat İlişkisinin Türkiye Açısından İncelenmesi,” (Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi), Trabzon:KTÜ, SBE.
  • Zengin Ahmet, Harun Terzi; (1995); “Türkiye’de Kur Politikası, İthalat, İhracat ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Analizi,” Gazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergi- si, S.11:245-254.
  • Zengin Ahmet; (2000); “Reel Döviz Kuru Hareketleri ve Dış Ticaret Hadleri,” İstatistik Araştırma Sempozyumu, Ankara:DİE.

TÜRKİYE’DE DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ, KONVERTİBİLETE, İHRACAT-İTHALAT İLİŞKİSİ 1980-2001

Year 2006, Volume: 2 Issue: 3, 71 - 84, 01.06.2006

Salih Barışık Elmas Demircioğlu

Abstract

Döviz kurları dış ticaretin yönlendirilmesinde önemli bir etken olarak görülmektedir. Buna rağmen, uygulanan döviz kuru sistemi her ülkenin dış ticaretinde aynı sonuçları vermediği gibi beklenen sonuçlar da vermeyebilir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de uygulanan döviz kuru sistemi ihracat-ithalat ilişkisi incelenmektedir. Analiz sonucunda döviz kuru rejimi ve ihracat-ithalat arasında kuvvetli olmayan bir ilişkinin varlığı ortaya çıkmaktadır. Konverbilitenin dış ticareti yönlendirmede etkin olmadığı sonuçlarına varılmaktadır.

Keywords

Döviz Kuru Dış Ticaret İhracat İthalat Konvertibilite

References

  • Abeysinghe Tilak, Yeok Tan Lin; (1998); “Exchange Rate Appreciation and Export Competitiveness: The Case of Singapure,” Applied Economics, Vol.30, No.1:51- 55.
  • Abuşoğlu, Ömer; (1990); Döviz Kuru ve İhracat Üzerine Etkisi, Ankara: TOBB.
  • Acharyya, Rajat; (1994); “Liberalized Exchange Rate Management System and De- valuation in India: Trade Balance Effect,” Journal of Economic Integration, Vol.3: 210.
  • Akaike, H.; (1969); “Fitting Autoregressions for Predictions,” Annals of the Institute Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 21: 243-247.
  • Arize, C.A.; (1995); “The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on U.S. Exports: An Empirical Investigation,” Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 62, No.1:32-41.
  • Aşıkoğlu Yaman, Merih Uçtum; (1992); “A Critical Evaluation on Pakistan’s Rate Policy in Turkey,” World Development, Vol.20, No.10:1205-1208.
  • Backus, D.; (1998); “The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Per- spects,” Japan and the World Economy, Vol.10:418-431.
  • Dickey, David A., Wayne A. Fuller; (1979); “Distribution of the Estimates for Autore- gressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Journal of the American Statistical Asso- ciation, Vol. 74: 251-276.
  • Dickey, David A., Wayne A. Fuller; (1981); “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Econometrica, Vol.49: 1057-1063.
  • Durusoy T.Ö., İbrahim Tokatlıoğlu; (1997); “Devalüasyon ve J Eğrisi,” Ekonomik Yak- laşım, Y.8, S. 24-25:65-68.
  • Egeli Hüseyin Avni; (1992); “Türkiye’de 1980 Sonrası Dönemde İhracatın Gelişimi ve İzlenen Politikaların Etkinlikleri,” D.E.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, C.7, S.2:115-121.
  • Enders, Walters, (1995); Applied Econometric Time Series, New York, Iowa State Uni- versity.
  • Engle, R. F., C. W. J. Granger; (1987); “Cointegration and Error- Correction: Represen- tation, Estimation and Tasting,” Econometrica, Vol.55: 251-263.
  • Fountas, Stiliano ve Bredin Donal; (1998); “Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Case of Ireland,” Applied Economics Letters, Vol.5:301-323.
  • Granger, C. W. J.; (1986); “Development in the Study of Cointegrated Variables,” Ox- ford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.37, No.3:211-228.
  • Hasan, M. Aynul ve Ashfaque Khan; (1994); “Impact of Devaluation on Pakistan’s External Trade: An Econometric Approach,” The Pakistan Development Review, Vol.33, No.4:1205-1217.
  • Hassan, M. Kabir ve David R. Tufte; (1998); “Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Export Growth in Bangladesh,” Applied Economics,Vol.30, No.2:187-193
  • IMF; International Financial Statistics, http//www.imf.org, 25.05.2004
  • Kwiatkowski, D./Phillips, P.C.B/Schmidt, P./Shin, Y., (1992); “Testing the Null Hy- pothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root.,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol:54, pp.159-178.
  • Johansen S, Juselius, K.; (1990); “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.52:165-178.
  • Pindyck Robert S.,Rubinfeld Daniel L. (1991); Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, McGraw-Hill.
  • Rose K. Andrew; (1991); “The Role of Exchange Rates in a Popular Model of International Trade,” Journal of International Economics,Vol.30,No:3-4:298-320
  • Rose K. Andrew, J. L. Yellen; (1989); “Is There a J-curve?,” Journal of International Economics, Vol.24, No.1
  • TCMB; Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi, www.tcmb.gov.tr.25.05.2004.
  • TCMB; Reel Efektif Reel Döviz Kuruna İlişkin Yönetimsel Açıklama www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/evds/yayin/reel_efktf/YontemselAciklama.pdf, 9.10.2005.
  • Terzi Harun, Ahmet Zengin; (1999); “Kur Politikasının Dış Ticaret Dengesini Sağlama- daki Etkinliği,” Ekonomik Yaklaşım, C.10, S.33:21-35.
  • Usta Can, Uğur Sivri; (2003); “Reel Döviz Kuru, İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişki,” ,http//iktisat.uludag.edu.tr/dergi/11/16-ugur/16-ugur.htm. 22.11.2003.
  • Zengin Ahmet; (1994); “Döviz Kuru Politikası-İhracat İlişkisinin Türkiye Açısından İncelenmesi,” (Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi), Trabzon:KTÜ, SBE.
  • Zengin Ahmet, Harun Terzi; (1995); “Türkiye’de Kur Politikası, İthalat, İhracat ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Analizi,” Gazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergi- si, S.11:245-254.
  • Zengin Ahmet; (2000); “Reel Döviz Kuru Hareketleri ve Dış Ticaret Hadleri,” İstatistik Araştırma Sempozyumu, Ankara:DİE.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Salih Barışık This is me

Elmas Demircioğlu This is me

Publication Date June 1, 2006
Published in Issue Year 2006 Volume: 2 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Barışık, S., & Demircioğlu, E. (2006). TÜRKİYE’DE DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİ, KONVERTİBİLETE, İHRACAT-İTHALAT İLİŞKİSİ 1980-2001. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 2(3), 71-84.