ENDÜSTRİ-İÇİ TİCARETİN BELİRLEYİCİSİ OLARAK ULUSLARARASI GÖÇ AKIMLARI: TÜRKİYE’DE GİYİM SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Year 2020, Volume: 16 Issue: 4, 794 - 816, 31.12.2020

Gökhan Demirtaş Emel Turan

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.804975

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de uluslararası göç akımlarının endüstri-içi ticaret üzerine etkisini incelemektir. Bu amaçla çalışmada panel veri yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Çalışma, 2013-2017 yılları arasında Türkiye’nin göç aldığı 85 ülke ile dış ticareti üzerine odaklanmaktadır. Genişletilmiş çekim modeline dayanan tahminler, Uluslararası Standart Ticaret Sınıflandırması (SITC, Rev.3) 2 haneli ayrıma göre SITC84 kodlu Giyim Eşyası ve Bunların Aksesuarları sektöründe iki taraflı ticaret verisini içermektedir. Modelde bağımsız değişken olarak Grubel-Lloyd Endeksine göre hesaplanan endüstri-içi ticaret yer alırken gelir, ağırlıklı mesafe, döviz kuru ve uluslararası göç akımları modelde bağımsız değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın temel sonucu, hazır giyim sektöründe uluslararası göçün endüstri-içi ticaret üzerine etkisinin pozitif olduğunu göstermektedir. Türkiye'nin hazır giyim sektöründe net ihracatçı olduğu göz önüne alındığında, bu sonuç tercih etkisinin bu sektördeki ağ etkisinden daha büyük olduğunu göstermektedir. Hangi etki olursa olsun, uluslararası göç giyim sektöründeki ithalatı ihracattan daha fazla artırmaktadır. Bu noktadan hareketle Türkiye'nin ürün farklılaştırmasına odaklanarak katma değeri yüksek ürünlerde uzmanlaşması önerilmektedir.

Keywords

Endüstri-içi Ticaret, Uluslararası Göç, Genişletilmiş Çekim Modeli, Panel Veri Analizi

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION FLOWS AS A DETERMINANT OF INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON THE CLOTHING SECTOR IN TURKEY

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of international migration on intra-industry trade in Turkey. For this purpose, panel data method is used in the study. The study focus on the intra-industry trade of Turkey with 85 countries during the period from 2013 to 2017. Estimates based on augmented gravity model are includes the bilateral trade data of SITC84 code Articles of Apparel & Clothing Accessories sub-sectors according to the International Standard Classification of Commerce (SITC Rev.3) 2-digit. Intra-industry trade which is calculated according to the Grubel-Lloyd index as a dependent variable in the model while income, weighted distance, exchange rate and international migration flows are used as independent variables. The main result of the study shows that the effect of international migration on intra-industry trade is positive in the clothing sector. Taking into consideration Turkey is a net exporter in clothing sector, this result indicates that the preference effect is greater than the network effect in this sector. Regardless of the effect, international migration increases imports in the clothing sector more than exports. From this pointof view, it is recommended that Turkey should specializes in high value-added products by focusing product differentiation.

Keywords

Intra-Industry Trade, International Migration, Augmented Gravity Model, Panel Data Analysis

References

• Abd-el-Rahman, K. (1991). Firms’ Competitive and National Comparative Advantages As Joint Determinants of Trade Composition. Review of World Economics, 127(1), 83-97. doi: 10.1007 / BF02707312
• Altay, H. ve Şen, A. (2009) Türkiye’nin Avrupa Birliği (15) Pazarındaki Endüstri-içi Ticaret Performansının Rakip Ülke Performanslarıyla Karşılaştırmalı Analizi:1995-2007, Dumlupınar Üni. Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 25, 127-140.
• Anderson, J. E. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review, 69, 106-116.
• Anderson, J. E. ve Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity With Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 170-192. doi: 10.1257 / 000282803321455214
• Aquino, A. (1978). Intra-Industry Trade and Inter-Industry Specialization as Concurrent Sources of International Trade in Manufactures. Review of World Economics, 114(2), 275-296. doi: 10.1007 / BF02696475
• Arellano, M. (2003). Panel data Econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Asteriou, D. ve Hall, S. G. (2007). Applied Econometrics: a modern approach (revised edition). New York: Palgrave Macmillan
• Bacarreza, G. J. ve Ehrlich, L. (2006). The Impact of Migration on Foreign Trade in Bolivia. Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico, 6, 125-146.
• Balassa, B. (1966). Tariff Reductions and Trade in Manufacturers Among The Industrial Countries. The American Economic Review, 56(3), 466-473.
• Balassa, B. ve Bauwens, L. (1987). Intra-Industry Specialisation in a Multi-Country and Multi-Industry Framework. The Economic Journal, 97(388), 923-939. doi: 10.2307/2233080
• Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Third Edition, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons.
• Bayraktutan, Y. (2003). Bilgi ve Uluslararası Ticaret Teorileri. CÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 4(2), 175-186.
• Bellino, A. ve Celi, G. (2016). The Role of Migration in the Variety and Quality of Trade: Evidence from Germany. German Economic Review, 17(1), 1-25. doi: 10.1111/geer.12083
• Bergstrand, J. H. (1985). The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, 474– 481. doi: 10.2307/1925976
• Bertoli, S. ve Moraga, J. F. H. (2017). Gravity models in the migration and development nexus. Revue déconomie du development, 25(3), 69-91. doi: 10.3917/edd.313.0069
• Blanes. J. V. (2005). Does Immigration Help to Explain Intra-Industry Trade? Evidence for Spain. Review of World Economics,141(2), 244-270. doi: 10.1007/s10290-005-0027-7
• Blanes, J. V. and Martin-Montaner, J. A. (2006). Migration Flows and Intra-Industry Trade Adjustments. Review of World Economics, 142(3), 567–584. doi: 10.1007/s10290-006-0081-9Lung, S. M. (2008).
• Brander, J.A. ve Krugman, P. (1983). A Reciprocal Dumping Model of International Trade. Journal of International Economics, 15(3), 313-321.
• Breusch, T. ve Pagan, A. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. doi: 10.2307/2297111
• Brülhart, M. (1994). Marginal Intra-Industry Trade: Measurement and Relevance for the Pattern of Industrial Adjustment. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 130, 600-613. doi: 10.1007 / BF02707615
• Brülhart, M., ve Thorpe, M. (2001). Export Growth of NAFTA Members, Intra-Industry Trade and Adjustment. Global Business and Economics Review, 3(1), 94-110. doi: 10.1504/GBER.2001.006168
• Burtan Doğan, B. ve Özörnek Tunç, Ş. (2015). Türkiye’nin Afrika Ülkeleri İle Olan Dış Ticaretinin Belirleyicileri: Panel Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 7(12), 1-17. doi: 10.20990/aacd.47582
• Çetin, M. ve Ecevit, E. (2008). İhracatın Sürükleyici Gücü Olarak Tekstil Sektörü: Kahramanmaraş İli Örneği. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 15 (2), 115-132.
• Çeştepe, H. (2012). Türkiye’nin Seçilmiş Ortadoğu Ülkeleriyle Ticaretinin Analizi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8(2), 23-43.
• Çoban, O. ve Kök, R. (2005). Türkiye Tekstil Endüstrisi ve Rekabet Gücü: AB Ülkeleriyle Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz Örneği, 1989-2001. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 20(228), 68-81. doi: 10.3848/iif.2005.228.2152
• Deardorff, A. V. (1995). Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassic World. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 5377.
• Dinçer, G. (2014). Dış Tı̇caret Kuramında Çekı̇m Modelı̇. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 24(88), 1-34. doi: 10.5455/ey.35200
• Dunlevy, J. A. ve Hutchinson, W. K. (1999). The Impact of Immigration on American Import Trade in the Late Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Centuries. The Journal of Economic History, 59(4), 1043-1062.
• Ekanayake, E. M. (2001). Determinants of trade: The case of Mexico. The International Trade Journal, 15(1), 89-112. doi: 10.1080/088539001300005468
• Emirhan, P. N. (2014). Uluslararası Emek Göçü ve Dış Ticaret Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye için Bir Uygulama. Ege Akademik Bakış, 14(4), 611-620.
• Erlat, G. ve Erlat, H. (2003). Measuring Intra-Industry and Marginal Intra-Industry Trade: The Case for Turkey. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 39(6), 5-38. doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2003.11052555
• Erlat, H. (2018). Panel Data: A Selective Survey, Ankara: Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University.
• Faustino, H. C. ve Leitao, N. C. (2008a). Using The Gravity Equation To Explain The Portuguese Immigration-Trade Link. Technical University of London, Working Paper. doi: 10400.5/2337
• Faustino, H. C. ve Leitao, N. C. (2008b). Immigration and Trade in Portugal: A Static and Dynamic Panel Data Analysis, Technical University of Lisbon, Working Paper, WP 31/2008/DE/Socius.12/2008/DE/Socius. doi: 10400.5/2354
• Faustino, H. C. ve Peixoto, J. (2009). Immigration-trade Links: The Impact of Recent Immigration on Portuguese Trade. ISEG-Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa. doi: 10400.5/1826
• Faustino, H. C ve Proença, I. (2015). Immigration And Intra-Industry Trade: The Relevance Of Language, Qualification And Economic Integration. Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, 0(1), 3-18. doi: 10400.5/11338
• Finger, J. M. (1975). Trade overlap and intra industry trade. Economic Inquiry, 13(4), 581-589. doi: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1975.tb00272.x
• Gencer, A. H. (2012). Gravity Modeling of Turkey’s International Trade under Globalization. International Trade, 2(2012), 31-34.
• Girma, S. ve Yu, Z. (2002). The Link between Immigration and Trade: Evidence from the United Kingdom. Weltwirtschaftliches, 138(1), 115-130. doi: 10.1007/BF02707326
• Golovko, A. (2009). Çekim Modeli: Avrasya Ülkelerinin Dış Ticareti. Econ Anadolu 2019 Anadolu Uluslararası İktisat Kongresi, 17-19 Haziran 2009, Eskişehir, Türkiye.
• Golovko, A. (2014). Avrasya Ülkelerinin Dış Ticaretlerinin Çekim Modeli Çerçevesinde Analizi (Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Ankara Üniversitesi, Ankara.
• Gray, P. (1980). The Theory of International Trade among Industrial Nations. Review of World Economics, 116(3), 447-517. doi: 10.1007/BF02708817
• Greenaway, D. ve Milner, C. (1983). On the Measurement of Intra-Industry Trade. Economic Journal, 93(372), 900-908. doi: 10.2307/2232755
• Greenaway, D. ve Milner, C. (1987). Intra-Industry Trade: Current Perspectives and Unresolved Issues. Review of World Economics, 123(1), 39-57. doi: 10.1007/BF02707781
• Greenaway, D., Hine, R. C., Milner, C., ve Elliott, R. (1994). Adjustment and the Measurement of Marginal Intra-Industry Trade. Review of World Economics, 130(2), 418-427. doi: 10.1007/BF02707717
• Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric analysis (7th Edition). New Jersey: Prentice-Hall International Inc. Grubel, H. G. ve Lloyd, P. J. (1975) Intra-Industry Trade: The Theory and Measurement of International Trade in Differentiated Products. London: Macmillan Press. doi: 10.2307/2230917
• Hausman, J. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271. doi: 10.2307 / 1913827
• Head, K. (2003). Gravity for beginners. University of British Columbia, 2053.
• Head, K. ve Ries, J. (1998). Immigration and Trade Creation: Econometric Evidence from Canada. The Canadian Jaurnal of Economics, 31(1), 47-62. doi: 10.2307/136376
• Head, K., ve Mayer, T. (2010). Illusory border effects. In P. Van Bergeijk ve S. Brakman (Eds.), The Gravity Model in International Trade: Advances and Applications (pp. 165-192). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511762109
• Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of Panel Data, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511754203
• Kemp, M. C. (1969). A contribution to the general equilibrium theory of preferential trading (No. 04; HF1007, K4.).
• Kennedy, P. (2005). Ekonometri kılavuzu (Beşinci Baskı), (M. Sarımeşelive Ş. Açıkgöz, Çev.), Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
• Krugman, P. R. (1979). Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade. Journal of international Economics, 9(4), 469-479. doi: 10.1016/0022-1996(79)90017-5
• Leamer, E. ve Levinsohn, J. (1995). International Trade Theory: The Evidence. Handbook Of International Economics, 3, 134-150.
• Leitao, N. C. (2011). Intra-Industry Trade and United States´ Immigration. World Applied Sciences Journal, 12(2), 212-215. doi: 10400.15/378
• Leitao, N. C. (2013). The impact of immigration on Portuguese Intra-Industry Trade. European Economic Letters, 2(1), 7-11. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2233949
• Leontief, W. (1953). Domestic production and foreign trade; the American capital position re-examined. Proceedings of the American philosophical Society, 97(4), 332-349.
• Linder, S. B. (1961). An essay on trade and transformation. Stockholm: Almqvist ve Wiksell.
• Linnemann, H. (1966). An econometric study of ınternational trade flows. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company. doi: 10.2307/2229319
• Lu, S. (2018). Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: an opportunity or a threat to the EU textile and apparel industry?. The Journal of The Textile Institute, 109(7), 933-941. doi: 10.1080/00405000.2017.1388345
• Lung, S. M. (2008). The Impact of International Migration on International Trade: An Empirical Study of Australian Migrant Intake from Asian Countries. (Doktora Tezi). Victoria University, Australia.
• Massey, D. S. (1990). The Social and Economic Origins of Immigration. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 510(1), 60-72. doi: 10.1177/0002716290510001005
• Nordas, H. K. (2004). The global textile and clothing industry post the agreement on textiles and clothing (No. 5). WTO discussion paper. doi: 10419/107040
• Özel, E. (2012). Türk Tekstil Sanayi Endüstri-İçi Ticaretin Yapısı ve İncelenmesi. (Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Akdeniz Üniversitesi, Antalya.
• Özkaya, M. H. (2010). Tekstil Sektöründe Endüstri-içi Ticareti Etkileyen Faktörler Üzerine Ampirik Çalışma. Uşak Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(2), 136-157. doi: 10.12780/UUSBD78
• Paas, T. (2003). Regional Integration and International Trade in the Context of EU Eastward Enlargement, HWWA Discussion Paper, No: 218. doi: 10419/19314
• Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade Between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90(1), 93-100.
• Stone, J. A. ve Lee, H. H. (1995). Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade: A Longitudinal, Cross-Country Analysis. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 131(1), 67-85. doi: 10.1007/BF02709072
• Szczepaniak, I. (2013). Development of Intra-Industry Trade as a Measure of Competitiveness of the Polish Food Sector. Oeconomia Copernicana, 4(2), 147-164. doi: 10.12775/OeC.2013.018
• Şahin, D. (2015). Türk Tekstil ve Hazır Giyim Sektörünün Endüstri-İçi Ticaretinin Statik Analizi: AB-15 Ülkeleri ile Karşılaştırma. Uşak Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(2), 48-66. doi: 10.12780/uusbd.48061
• Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping The World Economy: Suggestion for an International Economic Policy. New York: A Twentieth Century Fund Study. doi: 1765/16826
• Vona, S. (1991). On the Measurement of Intra-Industry Trade: Some Further Thoughts. Weltwirtschaftliches archiv, 127(4), 678-700. doi: 10.1007/BF02707415
• White, R. (2008). Exploring a US Immigrant–Intra-Industry Trade Link. Eastern Economic Journal, 34(2), 252-262. doi: 10.1057 / palgrave.eej.9050034
• Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge: MIT Press.
• Yenı̇lmez, F. ve Kutlu, E. (2005). Türkiye ile Avrupa Birliği Ülkeleri Arasındaki Endüstri-İçi Ticaretin Önemi. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 20(229), 45-64. doi: 10.3848/iif.2005.229.7392
• Yurttançıkmaz, Ç. (2014). Türkiye’nin AB Pazarında Endüstri-içi Ticaret Açısından Avantajlı Olduğu Ürünlerin Belirlenmesi. Cumhuriyet Üni. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, 14(1), 1-22.