The Impact of the February 6 Earthquakes on Public Finance: The Peacock–Wiseman Displacement Hypothesis in the Context of the Tax Gap and Fiscal Stress

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of the February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquakes on Türkiye’s public finances within the framework of the Peacock–Wiseman Displacement Hypothesis. To this end, structural break and trend analyses are conducted using data from the eleven earthquake-affected provinces as well as national-level data for Türkiye. The findings indicate that the post-earthquake disruption in economic activity weakened tax collection performance and led to a pronounced increase in the tax gap. This deterioration on the revenue side, under heightened fiscal stress, resulted in a rapid and persistent expansion of mandatory public expenditures. The results further reveal that the increase in public spending did not return to its pre-earthquake level but instead became permanent through the ratchet effect. The study empirically demonstrates that natural disasters generate not only temporary budgetary disruptions in public finance but also lasting structural breaks through both revenue and expenditure channels. In this respect, by jointly examining the tax gap and fiscal stress mechanisms within the Peacock–Wiseman Displacement Hypothesis, the study offers an original contribution to the disaster–public finance literature.

Keywords

• Fiscal Stress
• Tax Gap
• Peacock–Wiseman Displacement Hypothesis
• Public Expenditure
• Structural Break and Trend Analysis

6 Şubat Depremlerinin Kamu Maliyesine Etkisi: Vergi Açığı ve Fiskal Baskı Ekseninde Peacock–Wiseman Sıçrama Tezi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş merkezli depremlerin Türkiye’de kamu maliyesi üzerindeki etkilerini Peacock–Wiseman Sıçrama Tezi çerçevesinde analiz etmektedir. Bu amaçla, depremden etkilenen on bir il ile Türkiye geneline ilişkin veriler kullanılarak yapısal kırılma ve trend analizleri uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, deprem sonrası dönemde ekonomik faaliyetteki kesintinin vergi tahsilatını zayıflattığını ve vergi açığını belirgin biçimde artırdığını göstermektedir. Gelir tarafında ortaya çıkan bu bozulma, artan fiskal baskı altında zorunlu kamu harcamalarının hızlı ve kalıcı biçimde genişlemesine yol açmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, kamu harcamalarındaki artışın deprem sonrasında eski seviyesine dönmediğini ve mandal etkisi yoluyla daha yüksek bir düzeyde kalıcılaştığını ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma, doğal afetlerin kamu maliyesinde yalnızca geçici bütçe bozulmalarına değil, gelir ve harcama kanalları üzerinden kalıcı yapısal kırılmalara yol açtığını ampirik olarak göstermektedir. Bu yönüyle çalışma, vergi açığı ve fiskal baskı mekanizmasını Peacock–Wiseman Sıçrama Tezi ile birlikte ele alarak afet–kamu maliyesi literatürüne özgün bir katkı sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Fiskal Baskı
• Vergi Açığı
• Peacock–Wiseman Sıçrama Tezi
• Kamu Harcamaları
• Yapısal Kırılma ve Trend Analizi

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