Understanding the US and China Rivalry through Modelski’s Model & Offensive Realism Theory (The Past, Present & Future)

Abstract

While the impact of the US-Chinese rivalry on the global political system has led to considerable literature, there are some discussions on the possible strategies that the USA and China can follow in this rivalry. On the one hand, it is wondered what kind of road map the USA and China will follow, on the other hand, Modelski's Long Cycle Model can offer an explanation and prediction opportunity in this regard. This model produces an explanation that includes the past, present, and future within the framework of the enormous increase in the interdependence of states at the global level. In this study, the explanation model developed by Modelski is used to understand the political and economic order that has emerged around China's evolving role in the global political system.

Keywords

• US
• China Rivalry
• Modelski Model
• Offensive Realism

Understanding the US and China Rivalry through Modelski’s Model & Offensive Realism Theory (The Past, Present & Future)

Abstract

ABD-Çin rekabetinin küresel siyasi sistem üzerindeki etkisi hatırı sayılır bir literatüre yol açarken, ABD ve Çin'in bu rekabette izleyebileceği olası stratejiler konusunda bazı tartışmalar bulunmaktadır. Bir yandan ABD ve Çin'in nasıl bir yol haritası izleyeceği merak edilirken, diğer yandan Modelski'nin Uzun Döngü Modeli bu konuda bir açıklama ve öngörü fırsatı sunabilir. Bu model, küresel düzeyde devletlerin karşılıklı bağımlılığındaki muazzam artış çerçevesinde geçmişi, bugünü ve geleceği içeren bir açıklama üretir. Bu çalışmada, Modelski tarafından geliştirilen açıklama modeli, Çin'in küresel siyasi sistemdeki gelişen rolü etrafında ortaya çıkan siyasi ve ekonomik düzeni anlamak için kullanılmıştır.

Keywords

• ABD
• Çin Rekabeti
• Modelski’nin Modeli
• Ofansif Realism

References

1. Areddy, James., China’s Top Diplomat Warns Biden Against Meddling in Hong Kong, Xinjiang. The Wall Street Journal. (2021 February 2) https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-top-diplomat-warns-biden-against-meddling-in-hong-kong-xinjiang-11612243592 Accessed 11 October 2021
2. Bendiek, Annegret., Godehardt, Nadine., & Schulze, David., “The Age of Digital Geopolitics,” International Politics and Society, (2019), https://www.ips-journal.eu/in-focus/chinas-new-power/article/show/the-age-of digital-geopolitics-3593/ (10.10.2021).
3. Burden, Lizzy., “China's Economy Set to Overtake U.S. Earlier Due to Covid Fallout”. (2020, December, 26). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-26/covid-fallout-means-china-to-overtake-u-s-economy-earlier Accessed 19. 12.2021
4. Business Standard, China's Xi launches veiled attack on US, warns against unilateralism. (2021 April, 21) https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-s-xi-launches-veiled-attack-on-us-warns-against-unilateralism-121042000775_1.html Accessed 11 October 2021
5. Castells, Manuel, The Rise of The Network Society: The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010
6. Castells, Manuel., “Grassrooting the Space of Flows,” Urban Geography (1999), 20, no. 4, 295. Powell, Walter “Neither Market nor Hierarchy: Network Forms of Organization,” 304
7. Colin Flint. Introduction to geopolitics. (New York: Routledge, 2016.)
8. Corporate Finance Institute. What is the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)? 2020 https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/asian-infrastructure-investmentbankaiib/#:~:text=The%20creation%20of%20the%20AIIB,with%20%24100%20billion%20in%20capital Accessed November 2021

9. David Sanger, & David McCabe. “Biden Expands Trump-Era Ban on Investment in Chinese Firms Linked to Military”. (2021 June, 3). https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/03/us/politics/biden-ban-chinese-firms-trump.html Accessed November 2021
10. Dephne Ringuet. “5G: Huawei unveils new infrastructure products aimed at Europe”. (2020 February 20). https://www.zdnet.com/article/5g-huawei-unveils-new-infrastructure-products-aimed-at-europe/ Accessed November 2021
11. Dixon, Robyn., “Putin chides U.S. on its actions in Afghanistan — and warns of the risk of terrorism”. (2021 August 20) https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/afghan-putin-merkel-us1990-failure/2021/08/20/c22cbd54-01d8-11ec-ba7e-2cf966e88e93_story.html
12. Elanah, Uretsky. What China did right in handling Covid-19 pandemic – and the United States did not. (2020 November, 28). https://scroll.in/article/979357/what-china-did-right-in-handling-covid-19-pandemic-and-the-united-states-did-not
13. Elman, Colin., “Extending Offensive Realism: The Louisiana Purchase and America’s Rise to Regional Hegemony”. American Political Science Review 98(4): 563-576.
14. Farell Henry & Newman Abraham. “Weaponized Globalization: Huawei and the Emerging Battle over 5G Networks”, Global Asia, https://www.globalasia.org/v14no3/cover/weaponized-globalization-huaweiand-the-emerging-battle-over-5g-networks_henry-farrellabraham-newman Accessed 19.11.2021
15. Fidler, David., “The Clean Network Program: Digital Age Echoes of the “Long Telegram”? (2020 October, 5). https://www.cfr.org/blog/clean-network-program-digital-age-echoes-long-telegram
16. History, Marshall Plan. Accessed October 2021 https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/marshall-plan-1
17. Huawei Investment & Holding Co., Ltd. 2019 Annual Report, (Huawei, 2020), 1.
18. Kenneth, Waltz. “The Origins of War in Neorealist Theory.” in The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars, edited by Robert Rotberg and Theodore Rabb, 39-52. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989.
19. Kirshner, J. (2012). “The Tragedy of Offensive Realism: Classical Realism and the Rise of China.” European Journal of International Relations 18(1): 53-75
20. Laszlo Ervin, Introduction to systems philosophy; toward a new paradigm of contemporary thought. New York: Gordon and Breach, 1972.
21. Lei Guang, Margaret Roberts, Yiqing Xu and Jiannan Zhao, ‘Pandemic Sees Increase In Chinese Support For Regime, Decrease In Views Towards The US’, UC San Diego China Data Lab, July, 2020, accessed October, 2021, http://chinadatalab.ucsd.edu/viz-blog /pandemic-sees-increase-in-chinese-support-for-regime-decrease-in-views-towards-us/
22. Lukacs, John. George Kennan: A Study of Character. New Haven; Yale University Press, 2007
23. Mariani, Lorenzo, & Bertolini, Micol. The US–China 5G Contest: Options for Europe. Istituto Affari Internazionali, 14. (2019 September 16). https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/us-china-5g-contest-options-europe
24. Mark Leonard, “Introduction: Connectivity Wars,” in Connectivity Wars Why Migration, Finance and Trade Are The Geo-Economic Battlegrounds of The Future, ed. Mark Leonard (London: The European Council on Foreign Relations, 2016), 15.
25. Mearsheimer, John. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, New York: Norton, 2001
26. Modelski, George. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987
27. Nedopil, Christoph. “Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative”; Beijing, IIGF Green BRI Center (2021): https://green-bri.org/countries-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-bri/ Accessed November 2021
28. Pew Research Center. “Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries (2020 October 6). https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-views-of-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries/ Accessed November 2021
29. Polybius (1979) The Rise of the Roman Empire (introduction by F. W. Walbank)
30. Pop, A. & Brînză, A. (2017). Power Transition and Balance of Power: Comprehending the Power Dynamics of the 21st Century. Public Administration & Regional Studies 1(19), 58-70.
31. Pop, A. & Grigoras, R. (2018). Long Cycles: A Bridge between Past and Futures. 6th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) – Future in the Making Brussels.
32. SIPRI Military Expenditure Database. 2020 https://sipri.org/sites/default/files/Data%20for%20all%20countries%20from%201988%E2%80%932020%20in%20constant%20%282019%29%20USD%20%28pdf%29.pdf Accessed November 2021
33. Snodgrass, Erin. “Mikhail Gorbachev, who withdrew Russian troops from Afghanistan in 1989, said the American campaign was a 'failed enterprise from the start'. (2021 August 17) https://www.businessinsider.com/mikhail-gorbachev-calls-us-presence-in-afghanistan-failed-enterprise-2021-8 Accessed November 2021
34. Srivastava, Smriti. Top 10 Countries Leading The Artificial Intelligence Race. (2019, July 27). https://www.analyticsinsight.net/top-10-countries-leading-the-artificial-intelligence-race/ Accessed November 2021
35. Statista Distribution of the 500 most powerful supercomputers in the world 2019 to 2021, by country” (2021 September 22) https://www.statista.com/statistics/264445/number-of-supercomputers-worldwide-by-country/
36. Statista Leading countries by renewable energy consumption worldwide in 2020. (2021). https://www.statista.com/statistics/237090/renewable-energy-consumption-of-the-top-15-countries/
37. Statista. China Leads the 6G Charge. (2021, September 17). https://www.statista.com/chart/25794/6g-patents-by-country-region/
38. Stephanie Nebehay & Emma Farage, WHO lauds Chinese response to virus, says world 'at important juncture'. (2020, January 29) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who-idUSKBN1ZS2EE Accessed 19.11.2021
39. Steven Lee Myers. & Kenneth Chang. China Brings Moon Rocks to Earth, and a New Era of Competition to Space. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/science/china-moon-mission-rocks.html (12.08.2021)
40. Strassler, Robert, The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to The Peloponnesian War (New York: Free Press, 1996),
41. Suisheng Zhao (2022) The US–China Rivalry in the Emerging Bipolar World: Hostility, Alignment, and Power Balance, Journal of Contemporary China, 31:134, 169-185, DOI:10.1080/10670564.2021.1945733.
42. Tekir, Gokhan. “Huawei, 5G Networks, and Digital Geopolitics”. International Journal of Politics and Security (IJPS), (2020). Vol. 2, No. 4, pp.113-135.
43. Thucydides (1972) History of the Peloponnesian War, trans. Warner,
44. Top500 List. https://www.top500.org/news/fugaku-holds-top-spot-exascale-remains-elusive/ Accessed November 2021
45. US Department of State. The Clean Network. https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-clean-network/index.html
46. Walter, Powell. Neither market nor hierarchy: Network forms of organization. Schlüsselwerke Der Netzwerkforschung, (1990): 461–463. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-21742-6_108
47. Xi Jinping’s Sept. 2020 Speech on Science and Technology Development (Translation).” n.d. Accessed March 27, 2022. https://www.newamerica.org/cybersecurity-initiative/digichina/blog/translation-xi-jinpings-sept-2020-speech-science-and-technology/.
48. Xuetong, Yan., The Rise of China in Chinese Eyes, Journal of Contemporary China, (2001), 10:26, 33-39, DOI: 10.1080/10670560123407
49. Zhao, Suisheng. “A New Model of Big Power Relations? China–US Strategic Rivalry and Balance of Power in the Asia–Pacific.” Journal of Contemporary China 24 (93): 377–97. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2014.953808.
50. Zhao, Suisheng. The US–China Rivalry in the Emerging Bipolar World: Hostility, Alignment, and Power Balance, Journal of Contemporary China, (2022) 31:134, 169-185, DOI:10.1080/10670564.2021.1945733
51. 我国是全世界唯一拥有全部工业门类的国家’ [‘China is the only country in the world with all industrial categories’], Xinhua, September 20, 2019, accessed November, 2021, http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2019-09/20/c_1125020250.htm.
52. 我国是全世界唯一拥有全部工业门类的国家-新华网.” n.d. Accessed March 27, 2022. http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2019-09/20/c_1125020250.htm.