The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Regime Fragility: Explaining China’s International Efforts at Solving Regime Insecurity

Year 2020, Volume: 2 Issue: 4 (Çin Özel Sayısı), 1 - 29, 21.08.2020

Thomas Ameyaw-brobbey

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to discuss China’s sources of regime insecurity, its impact on world peace and conflict and how the regime addresses these challenges. How does China’s regime insecurity affect international relations, peace and conflict and how is it responding to such challenge in order not to disturb international peace and cooperation? How do China’s public reactions affect international relations, conflict, peace and cooperation? It argues that China’s regime insecurity caused by strong nationalist emotions and domestic discontent is a potential source of impediment on world peace than its external strength. By using foreign policy initiative and primary sources, the paper shows that, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one course of action the Chinese regime addresses its challenges. Specifically, China is strengthening regime security and external peace through foreign policy – providing for the international dimension of the domestic threat – by trying to decrease domestic discontent through securing international commercial activities with its BRI, to stem horizontal inequalities and regime insecurity. I base the theoretical argument on the diversionary war theory. The paper helps fill the gap in the discussion of China and international security which has been dominated by China’s rise in power capabilities.

Keywords

China, Peace and Conflict, the Belt and Road Initiative, Regime Insecurity and Survival, Nationalist Emotions, Diversionary War

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Regime Fragility: Explaining China’s International Efforts at Solving Regime Insecurity

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Çin’in rejim güvensizliği kaynaklarını, dünya barışı ve çatışması üzerindeki etkisini ve rejimin bu zorlukları nasıl ele aldığını tartışmaktır. Çin’in rejimdeki güvensizliği uluslararası ilişkileri, barışı ve çatışmayı nasıl etkiliyor ve uluslararası barış ve işbirliğini rahatsız etmemek için bu tür zorluklara nasıl yanıt veriyor? Çin’in kamuoyu tepkileri uluslararası ilişkileri, çatışmayı, barışı ve işbirliğini nasıl etkiliyor? Çin'in güçlü milliyetçi duyguların ve iç hoşnutsuzluğun neden olduğu rejim güvensizliğinin, dünya barışı üzerinde dış gücünden potansiyel bir engel kaynağı olduğunu savunuyor. Dış politika inisiyatifini ve birincil kaynakları kullanarak, çalışma, Kemer ve Yol Girişimi'nin (BRI) Çin rejiminin zorluklarını ele aldığı bir eylem biçimi olduğunu göstermektedir. Özellikle Çin, BRI ile uluslararası ticari faaliyetleri güvence altına alarak, yatay eşitsizlikleri ve rejimdeki güvensizliği ortadan kaldırmak amacıyla, iç tehdidin uluslararası boyutunu sağlayan dış politika yoluyla rejim güvenliğini ve dış barışı güçlendirmektedir. Teorik argümanı saptırma savaş teorisine dayandırıyorum. Bu makale, Çin'in güç yeteneklerindeki yükselişin egemen olduğu uluslararası güvenlik tartışması ve Çin'in tartışmasındaki boşluğu doldurmaya yardımcı oluyor.

Keywords

Çin, barış ve çatışma, kemer ve yol girişimi, rejim güvensizliği ve hayatta kalma, milliyetçi duygular, saptırma savaşı

References

• Allison, Graham. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017.
• Ameyaw-Brobbey, Thomas. “Hegemonic Theory is not Dead: Regime Survival and Premature Hegemonic War – Impact of China’s Economic Rise on the International System.” Journal of Global Peace and Conflict 8, no. 1 (13-25). doi: 10.15640/jgpc.v8n1a2.
• Ameyaw-Brobbey, Thomas. “The Belt and Road Initiative: Debt Trap and its Implication on International Security.” Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies 1, no. 2 (2018), 73–81.
• Balcita, Marilyn. “BRI Sri Lanka Rail Project Arrives Early Amid Mass Coronavirus Delays.” HKTDC Research, April 27, 2020. https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/NDExNDA1MTM4.
• Bremmer, Ian. The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War between States and Corporations? New York: Portfolio, 2010.
• Burchill, Scott, Andrew Linklater, Richard Devetak, Jack Donnelly, Matthew Paterson, Christian Reus-Smit, and Jacqui True. Theories of International Relations (3rd ed.). New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005.
• Chiozza, Giacomo, and H.E.Goemans. “Peace through Insecurity: Tenure and International Conflict.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 47, no.4 (2003): 443–467.
• Christensen, Thomas J. “Posing Problems without Catching up: China’s Rise and Challenge for U.S. Security Policy.” International Security 25, no. 4 (2001): 5–40.
• Christensen, Thomas J. The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power. New York, NY: W.W. Norton and Company, Inc, 2015. Chung, Chien-Peng, and Thomas Voon. “China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative.” Asian Survey 57, no. 3 (2017): 416–449.
• Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563-595.
• Copeland, Dale. “Economic Interdependence and the Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations.” In International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pacific, edited by John G. Ikenberry, and M. Mastunduno, 323–352. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2013.
• Copeland, Dale. Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations,International Security 20, no. 2 (1996): 5–41.
• Dassel, Kurt, and Eric Reinhardt. “Domestic Strife and the Initiation of Violence at Home and Abroad.” American Journal of Political Science 43, no. 1 (1999): 56–85.
• Dassel, Kurt. “Civilians, Soldiers, and Strife: Domestic Sources of International Aggression.” International Security 23, no.1 (1998): 107–140.
• De Mesquita, Bruce, B., Randolph M. Siverson, and Gary Woller. “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis.” The American Political Science Review 86, no.3 (1992): 638–646. doi:10.2307/1964127.
• Easterlin, Richard, Robson Morgan, Malgorzata Switek, and Fei Wang. “China's Life Satisfaction, 1990-2010.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, no. 25(2012): 9776-80.
• Envall, H.D.P. “JAPAN’S INDIA ENGAGEMENT: From Different Worlds to Strategic Partners.” In The Engagement of India: Strategies and Responses, edited by Ian Hall, 39–60. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2014.
• Fan, Shenggen, Ravi Kanbur, and Xiaobo Zhang. “China's Regional Disparities: Experience and Policy.” Review of Development Finance 1, no. 1 (2011): 47–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rdf.2010.10.001.
• Fravel, Taylor M. “International Relations Theory and China's Rise: Assessing China's Potential for Territorial Expansion.” International Studies Review 12, no. 4 (2010): 505–532.
• Fravel, Taylor M. “Regime Insecurity and International Cooperation: Explaining China’s Compromises in Territorial Disputes.” International Security 30, no.2 (2005): 46–83.
• Friedberg, Aaron L. A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia. New York: W.W. Norton and Company, Inc., 2011.
• Ghosh, Madhuchanda. “India and Japan's Growing Synergy: From a Political to a Strategic Focus.” Asian Survey 48, no. 2 (2008): 282–302. doi:10.1525/as.2008.48.2.282.
• Goldstein, Avery. “Power Transitions, Institutions, and China's Rise in East Asia: Theoretical Expectations and Evidence.” Journal of Strategic Studies 30, no. 4-5 (2007): 639–682. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390701431709
• Helliwell, John F., et al. “Social Environment for World Happiness.” In World Happiness Report 2020, edited by John F. Helliwell, Richard Layard, Jeffrey Sachs, and Jan- Emmanuel De Neve, 13–45. New York, NY: Sustainable Development Solutions Network, 2020. https://happiness-report.s3.amazonaws.com/2020/WHR20.pdf.
• Hess, Steve. “The Flight of the Affluent in Contemporary China.” Asian Survey 56, no. 4 (2016): 629–650.
• Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC). “The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).” HKTDC Research. Accessed August 17, 2018. http://china-trade- research.hktdc.com/business-news/article/The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative/The-Belt-and- Road-Initiative/obor/en/1/1X3CGF6L/1X0A36B7.htm.
• Hurley, John, Scott Morris, and Gailyn Portelance. Examining the debt implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a policy perspective. CGD Policy Paper. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development, 2018. https://www.cgdev.org/publication/examining-debt-implications-belt-and-roadinitiative-policy-perspective.
• Ikenberry, John G. “The Rise of China and the Future of the West: Can the Liberal System Survive.” Foreign Affairs 87, no.1 (2008): 23-37.
• Ikenberry, John G. “The Rise of China: Power, Institutions, and the Western Order.” In China's Ascent: Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics, edited by Robert S. Ross, and Zhu Feng, 89–114. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2011.
• Jisi, Wang. “China in the Middle.” The American Interest, February 2, 2015. https://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/02/02/china-in-the-middle/.
• Kanbur, Ravi, and Xiaobo Zhang. “Fifty Years of Regional Inequality in China: A Journey through Central Planning, Reform and Openness.” Review of Development Economics 9, no. 1 (2005): 87-106.
• King, Amy. “Japan in Australia’s 2016 Defence White Paper.” Security Challenges 12, no. 1 (2016):177–80.
• Kissinger, Henry. On China. New York: The Penguin Press, 2011.
• Knight, John, and L. Song. “China's Emerging Wage Structure, 1995-2002.” In Inequality and Public Policy in China, edited by Bjorn Gustafsson, Li Shi, and Terry Sicular, 221–42. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
• Knight, John, and Linda Yueh. “The Role of Social Capital in the Labour Market in China.” Economics of Transition 16, no. 3 (2008): 389–414.
• Knight, John. “Inequality in China: An Overview.” The World Bank Research 29, no. 1 (2014): 1-19.
• Lebow, Richard Ned. Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crises. Baltimore,Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981.
• Leverett, Flynt, and Wu Bingbing. “The New Silk Road and China’s Evolving Grand Strategy.” The China Journal 77 (2016): 112-124.doi:1324-9347/2017/7701-0006.
• Levy, Jack, and Lily Vakili. “Diversionary Action by Authoritarian Regimes: Argentina in the Falklands/Malvinas Case.” In The Internationalization of Communal Strife, edited by Manus I. Midlarsky, 188-146. New York, NY: Routledge, 1992.
• Levy, Jack. “Domestic Politics and War.” The Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18, no. 4 (1988): 666–668.
• Mearsheimer, John J. “China's Unpeaceful Rise.” Current History 105, no. 690 (2006): 160–162.
• Mearsheimer, John J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.” New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company, Inc, 2014.
• Ministry of Education, People’s Republic of China. “Growing Number of Foreign Students Choosing to Study in China for a Degree across Multiple Disciplines,” Ministry of Education, China, April 3, 2018, http://en.moe.gov.cn/News/Top_News/201804/t20180403_332258.html . Accessed August 16, 2019.
• Morgan, Clifton T. and Kenneth N. Bickers. “Domestic discontent and the external use of force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36, no.1 (1992): 25-52.
• Murphy, Jefferson E. History of African Civilization. New York: Dell Publishing Co., Inc., 1972.
• Myungsik, Ham, and Elaine Tolentino. “Socialisation of China’s Soft Power: Building Friendship through Potential Leaders.” China: An International Journal 16, no. 4 (2018): 45–68.
• Nathan, Andrew J. “China’s Rise and International Regimes: Does China Seek to Overthrow Global Norms?” In China in the Era of Xi Jinping: Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges, edited by Robert S. Ross and Bekkevold Jo Inge, 165–95. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2016.
• Pei, Minxin. “China’s Coming Upheaval: Competition, the Coronavirus, and the Weakness of Xi Jinping.” Foreign Affairs, April 3, 2020. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-03/chinas-coming-upheaval
• Randol, Shaun. “How to Approach the Elephant: Chinese Perceptions of India in the Twenty-First Century.” Asian Affairs 34, no. 4 (2008): 211-226. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30172674.
• Roy, Denny. “Hegemon on the Horizon? China's Threat to East Asian Security.” International Security 19, no.1 (1994): 149-168. doi:10.2307/2539151.
• Russett, Bruce. Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World. New Jersey, NY: Princeton University Press, 1993.
• Sen, Sudhi Ranjan, and Archana Chaudhary. “In Clear Message to China, India to Invite Australian Navy for Malabar Drill.” The Economic Times, July 10, 2020. https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/in-clear-message-to-china-india-to-invite-australian-navy-for-malabar-drill/articleshow/76885282.cms.
• Shambaugh, David. China Goes Global: The Partial Power. New York: Oxford University Press, 2013.
• Shirk, Susan L. China: Fragile Superpower. New York: Oxford University Press, 2008.
• Stewart, Frances. Horizontal Inequality and Conflict. New York: Palgrave, 2008.
• Sun, Yun. “March West: China’s Response to the U.S. Rebalancing.” Up Front (Brookings Institution), January 31, 2013. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up- front/2013/01/31/march-west-chinas-response-to-the-u-s-rebalancing/.
• The African Development Bank Group. Review of the Implementation Status of the Trans African Highways and the Missing Links (Volume 1: Main Report, Final Report). Stockholm: SWECO International AB and Sweden Nordic Consulting Group AB, Sweden, 2003. https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Project-and- Operations/00473235-EN-TAH-FINAL-VOL1.PDF.
• The World Bank. “The World Bank Ease of Doing Business Rankings, 2020.” Accessed June 12, 2020. https://www.doingbusiness.org/en/rankings. Accessed June 12, 2020. Whyte, Martin King. “Soaring Income Gaps: China in Comparative Perspective.” Daedalu 143, no. 2 (2014): 39-52.
• Womack, Brantly. “Asymmetry and Systemic Misperception: The Cases of China, Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970s.” Journal of Strategic Studies 26, no. 2 (June 2003): 91-118.
• Womack, Brantly. “Asymmetry Theory and China’s Concept of Multipolarity.” Journal of Contemporary China 13, no. 39 (2004): 351-366. doi: 10.1080/1067056042000211942.
• Womack, Brantly. China among Unequals: Asymmetric Foreign Relationships in Asia. Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte, Ltd, 2010.
• Xi, Jinping. The Governance of China II. Beijing: Foreign Languages Press Co. Ltd., 2017.
• Xi, Jinping. The Governance of China. Beijing: Foreign Languages Press Co. Ltd., 2014.
• Zackey, Justin. “Peasant Perspectives on Deforestation in Southwest China: Social Discontent and Environmental Mismanagement.” Mountain Research and Development 27, no.2 (2007): 153–161.
• Zhou, Laura. “Arsenal star Mesut Ozil faces backlash in China after attacking human rights abuses in Xinjiang.” South China Morning Post, December 14, 2019. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3042111/arsenal-star-mesut- ozil-faces-backlash-china-after-attacking.