Türkiye'de Gişe Performansının Belirleyicileri

Year 2022, Issue: 60, 72 - 92, 21.12.2022

Eyüp Al , Ömer Faruk Tan

https://doi.org/10.47998/ikad.1118114

Abstract

Film endüstrisi hem küresel hem de yerel ekonomiler için büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu süreçte, film stüdyoları ve yapımcılar finansal risk yönetimi nedeniyle gişe başarısını tahmin etmeye çalışmaktadırlar. Bir filmin gişesini etkileyen faktörler ve faktörler arasındaki ilişkiler hakkında bilgi birikiminin arttırılması gerekmektedir. Bu makalenin amacı, Türkiye’de sinema sektöründe gişe hasılatı faktörlerini analiz etmektir. Çalışmanın örneklemini 2015-2019 yılları arasında vizyona giren 1.178 film oluşturmaktadır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre sinema salonlarının ve haftalarının, devam filmlerinin ve tatil sayılarının artması filmlerin toplam gelirlerini pozitif ve önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Ayrıca, filmler Kasım, Aralık, Ocak ve Şubat aylarında yayınlandıklarında, iyi finansal performans göstermektedirler. Sonuçlar ayrıca bilim kurgu, fantastik ve biyografi filmlerinin, filmlerin toplam geliri üzerinde pozitif ve önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Son olarak Warner Bros Pictures (WB) ve United International Pictures (UIP) tarafından piyasada dağıtılan filmler, gelir üzerinde istatistiksel olarak önemli ve pozitif bir etkiye sahiptir.

Keywords

Sinema filmi, Türkiye, gişe, çoklu regresyon, müşteri memnuniyeti

The Determinants of Box Office Performance in Turkey

Abstract

The film industry has great importance for both global and local economies. In the process, movie studios and producers try to predict box office success due to financial risk management. It is necessary to increase knowledge about the factors affecting the box office of a movie and the relationship between factors. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the determinants of box office revenue in the movie industry in Turkey. The study sample consists of 1,178 movies released and the time spans between 2015 and 2019. Based on the findings, an increasing number of theaters and weeks, sequels and school breaks have a positive and significant effect on total revenues. In addition, if movies are released in November, December, January, and February, they show good financial performance. The results also indicate audiences prefer science-fiction, fantasy, and biography movies. Finally, the movies in the market distributed by Warner Bros. Pictures (WB) and United International Pictures (UIP) have a positive and significant effect on total revenues.

Keywords

Motion picture, Turkey, box office, multiple regression, customer satisfaction

References

• Anast, P. (1967). Differential movie appeals as correlates of attendance. Journalism Quarterly. https://doi.org/10.1177/107769906704400111
• Basuroy, S., Chatterjee, S., & Ravid, S. A. (2003). How critical are critical reviews? The box office effects of film critics, star pwer, and budgets. Journal of Marketing, 67, 103–117.
• Bohnenkamp, B., Knapp, A. K., Hennig-Thurau, T., & Schauerte, R. (2015). When does it make sense to do it again? An empirical investigation of contingency factors of movie remakes. Journal of Cultural Economics, 39(1), 15–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10824-014-9221-6
• Brewer, S. M., Kelley, J. M., & Jozefowicz, J. J. (2009). A blueprint for success in the US film industry. Applied Economics, 41(5), 589–606. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840601007351
• Caves, R. E. (2003). Contracts between art and commerce. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(2), 73–84. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/3216857
• Chang, B. H., & Ki, E. J. (2005). Devising a practical model for predicting theatrical movie success: Focusing on the experience good property. Journal of Media Economics, 18(4), 247–269. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327736me1804_2
• Cialdini, R. B. (2001). Influence: Science and Practice. (5th ed.). Boston. Retrieved from http://marefateadyan.nashriyat.ir/node/150
• Cooper-Martin, E. (1991). Consumers and movies: Some findings on experiential products. Advances in Consumer Research, 18(1), 372–378. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=buh&AN=6522213&loginpage=Login.asp&site=ehost-live
• Cooper-Martin, E. (1992). Consumers and movies: Information sources for experiential products. Advances in Consumer Research. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=buh&AN=9301106609&loginpage=Login.asp&site=ehost-live
• De Vany, A., & Walls, W. D. (1999). Uncertainty in the movie industry: Does star power reduce the terror of the box office? Journal of Cultural Economics, 23(4), 285–318. Retrieved from http://link.springer.com/10.1023/A:1007608125988
• Dhar, T., Sun, G., & Weinberg, C. B. (2012). The long-term box office performance of sequel movies. Marketing Letters, 23(1), 13–29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11002-011-9146-1
• Einav, L. (2002). Seasonality and Competition in Time : An Empirical Analysis of Release Date Decisions in the U.S. Motion Picture Industry.
• Elberse, A., & Eliashberg, J. (2003). Demand and supply dynamics for sequentially released products in international markets: The case of motion pictures. Marketing Science, 22(3), 329–354. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.22.4.544.erratum2
• Gemser, G., Van Oostrum, M., & Leenders, M. A. A. M. (2007). The impact of film reviews on the box office performance of art house versus mainstream motion pictures. Journal of Cultural Economics, 31(1), 43–63. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10824-006-9025-4
• Gmerek, N. (2015). The determinants of Polish movies’ box office performance in Poland. Journal of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour in Emerging Markets, 1(1), 15–35. https://doi.org/10.7172/2449-6634.jmcbem.2015.1.2
• Hennig-Thurau, T., Houston, M. B., & Walsh, G. (2006). The differing roles of success drivers across sequential channels: An application to the motion picture industry. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 34(4), 559–575. https://doi.org/10.1177/0092070306286935
• Jansen, C. (2005). The performance of German motion pictures, profits and subsidies: Some empirical evidence. Journal of Cultural Economics, 29(3), 191–212. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10824-005-1157-4
• Jones, J. M., & Ritz, C. J. (1991). Incorporating distribution into new product diffusion models. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 8(2), 91–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-8116(91)90018-3
• Kim, D. H. (2021). What types of films are successful at the box office? Predicting opening weekend and non-opening gross earnings of films. Journal of Media Business Studies, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/16522354.2021.1887438
• Kim, S. H., Park, N., & Park, S. H. (2013). Exploring the effects of online word of mouth and expert reviews on theatrical movies’ box office success. Journal of Media Economics, 26(2), 98–114. https://doi.org/10.1080/08997764.2013.785551
• Krider, R. E., & Weinberg, C. B. (1998). Competitive dynamics and the introduction of new products: The motion picture timing game. Journal of Marketing Research, 35(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.2307/3151926
• Lampel, J., & Shamsie, J. (2000). Critical push: Strategies for creating momentum in the motion picture industry. Journal of Management, 26(2), 233–257. https://doi.org/10.1177/014920630002600204
• Lehmann, D. R., & Weinberg, C. B. (2000). Sales through sequential distribution channels: An application to movies and videos. Journal of Marketing, 64(3), 18–33. https://doi.org/10.1509/jmkg.64.3.18.18026
• Litman, B. R. (1983). Predicting success of theatrical movies: An empirical study. The Journal of Popular Culture. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0022-3840.1983.1604_159.x
• Litman, B. R., & Kohl, L. S. (1989). Predicting financial success of motion pictures: The ’80s experience. Journal of Media Economics, 2(2), 35–50. https://doi.org/10.1080/08997768909358184
• Moon, S., Bergey, P. K., & Lacobucci, D. (2010). Dynamic effects among movie ratings, movie revenues and viewer satisfaction. Journal of Marketing, 74(1), 108–121. https://doi.org/10.1509/jmkg.74.1.108
• Neelamegham, R., & Chintagunta, P. (1999). A Bayesian model to forecast new product performance in domestic and international markets. Marketing Science, 18(2), 115–136.
• Nelson, R., Donihue, M., Waldman, D., & Wheaton, C. (2001). What’s an oscar worth? Economic Inquiry, 39(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2001.tb00046.x
• Ornstein, S. L. 1998. Motion Pictures: Competition, Distribution and Efficiencies. Larry L. Duetsch ed. Industry Studies 2. M. E. Sharpe, New York. 292–316.
• Özdurak, C. (2020). Birleşme ve devralmalar sonrasında Türkiye sinema sektöründeki oligopolistik yapı. Nişantaşı University Journal of Social Sciences, 8(1), 1–17. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/nisantasisbd
• Pangarker, N. A., & Smit, E. V. D. M. (2013). The determinants of box office performance in the film industry revisited. South African Journal of Business Management, 44(3), 47–58. https://doi.org/10.4102/sajbm.v44i3.162
• Prag, J., & Casavant, J. (1994). An empirical study of the determinants of revenues and marketing expenditures in the motion picture Industry. Journal of Cultural Economics, 18, 217–235.
• Prosser, E. K. (2002). How early can video revenues be accurately predicted? Journal of Advertising Research, 42, 47–55.
• Radas, S., & Shugan, S. M. (1998). Seasonal marketing and timing new product introductions. Journal of Marketing Research, 35(3), 296–315.
• Ravid, S. A. (1999). Information, blockbusters, and stars: A study of the film industry. Journal of Business, 72(4), 463–492. https://doi.org/10.1086/209624
• Sawhney, M. S., & Eliashberg, J. (1996). A parsimonious model for forecasting gross box-office revenues of motion pictures. Marketing Science, 15(2), 113–131. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.15.2.113
• Smith, S. P., & Smith, V. K. (1986). Successful movies: A preliminary empirical analysis. Applied Economics, 18(5), 501–507. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036848608537445
• Sochay, S. (1994). Predicting the performance of motion pictures. Journal of Media Economics. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327736me0704_1
• Somburanasin, M. (2010). Risky business: Does recognition reduce uncertainty of the movie industry global box office revenue? Jönköping University.
• Sood, S., & Drèze, X. (2006). Brand extensions of experiential goods: Movie sequel evaluations. Journal of Consumer Research, 33(3), 352–360. https://doi.org/10.1086/508520
• Squire, J. E. (1992). The Movie Business Book. New York: Simon and Schuster.
• Terry, N., Browning, L., & Mitchell, L. (2015). The determinants of box office revenue for documentary movies. Southwestern Economic Review, 42, 15–27.
• Terry, N., Butler, M., & De’Armond, D. (2005). The determinants of domestic box office performance in the motion picture industry. Southwestern Economic Review, 137–148. Retrieved from http://www.ser.tcu.edu/2005/SER2005 Terry Butler DeArmond 137-148.pdf
• Terry, N., Cooley, J., & Zachary, M. (2008). The determinants of foreign box office revenue for English language movies. Journal of International Business And, 1–12. Retrieved from http://aabri.com/manuscripts/09274.pdf
• Terry, N., King, R., & Walker, J. J. (2010). The determinants of box office revenue for horror movies. Journal of Global Business Management, 6(2), 1–10. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/867819002?accountid=174204
• Tüzün, S. (2013). Multipleks sinema salonları ve Türkiye örneğinde sinema sektöründe değişen güç dengeleri. Sinecine: Sinema Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(1), 85–115.
• Vogel, H. L. (2001). Entertainment Industry Economics: A Guide for Financial Analysis (5th ed.). Cambridge University Press.
• Zufryden, F. (1996). Linking advertising to box office performance of new film releases - A marketing planning model. Journal of Advertising Research, 36(4), 29–41.
• Zufryden, F. (2000). New film website promotion and box-office performance. Journal of Advertising Research, 40(1–2), 55–64. https://doi.org/10.2501/JAR-40-1-2-55-64