TÜRKİYE’DE ENFLASYON VE İSTİHDAM ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: BOOTSTRAP ROLLING WINDOW NEDENSELLİK TESTİ

Year 2020, Volume: 5 Issue: 13, 305 - 317, 31.10.2020

Erdal Alancıoğlu

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.794150

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye için enflasyon ile istihdam arasında nedensellik ilişkisini test etmektir. İlk olarak, serilerin durağanlıkları, Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) ikinci nesil çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testiyle incelenmiştir. Daha sonra, seriler arasında uzun dönem ilişkisi, Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testiyle sınanmıştır. Son olarak, eşbütünleşme sonuçlarına bağlı olarak seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisine Hatemi-J (2012) ve Balcılar vd. (2010) tarafından geliştirilen Rolling Window nedensellik testleri ile bakılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki asimetrik ilişkiye göre, istihdamın pozitif şoklarından enflasyondaki negatif şokları; istihdamın negatif şoklarından enflasyondaki negatif şokları ve enflasyonun pozitif şoklarından istihdamın pozitif şokları yönünde nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca dönem bazında da enflasyondan istihdama (2006M6-2006M11; 2009M12-2010M3 ve 2016M6-2017M1), istihdamdan enflasyona ise (2009M2-2009M5; 2009M10-2010M3; 2011M2-2011M4;2012M12-2013M7; 2014M7-2014M4; 2015M6-2015M8; 2017M4-2017M6) dönemlerinde nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Phillips Eğrisi, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Enflasyon, İstihdam

RELATIONSHIP OF INFLATION BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY: BOOTSTRAP ROLLING WINDOW CAUSALITY TEST

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to test the causality between employment and inflation for Turkey. Firstly, the stationarities of the series were examined by the second-generation unit root test (Carrion-i-Silvestre et al., 2009) with multiple structural breaks. Later, the existence of cointegration relationship between series was tested with Maki (2012) multiple structural break cointegration test. Finally, depending on the cointegration results, the causality relationship between the series was studied by Rolling Window causality tests which is developed by Hatemi-J (2012) and Balcilar et al. (2010).According to the asymmetrical relationship between the variables, causality has been determined among the positive shocks of employment, negative shocks in inflation; from negative shocks of employment to negative shocks of inflation and from positive shocks of inflation, towards positive shocks of employment. In addition, on a period basis, from inflation to employment (2006M6-2006M11; 2009M12-2010M3 and 2016M6-2017M1), from employment to inflation (2009M2-2009M5; 2009M10-2010M3; 2011M2-2011M4; 2012M12-2013M7; 2014M7-2014M4; 2015M6-2015M8; 2017M4-2017M6) It was concluded that there was a causality relationship in the periods of.

Keywords

Phillips Curve, Turkish Economy, Inflation, Employment

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