Dış Ticarette Yeni Korumacılık ve Ticaret Savaşları: Trumpizm

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 28, 664 - 678

Erdem Bağcı

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.1666496

Abstract

Dış ticarette korumacılık, ithalatı kısıtlamak ve yerel endüstrileri desteklemek için tasarlanmış hükümet politikalarını içermektedir. Bu politikalar, yerel ekonomileri küresel rekabetten korumayı amaçlayan tarifeler, kotalar, sübvansiyonlar ve ticaret kısıtlamaları gibi araçların uygulanmasından oluşmaktadır. Dış ticarette korumacı önlemler, yerel endüstrileri destekleyerek yurtiçi istihdamın artmasını ve işsizliğin azalmasını sağlarken, aynı zamanda ekonomik verimsizlikler, ticaret savaşları ve tüketiciler için daha yüksek maliyetler gibi bir dizi sorunlara da neden olabilecek riskleri taşır. Bu çalışmanın iki temel amacından, birincisi dış ticarette korumacılığın Trump yönetimine özgü bir durum olmadığının tarihsel bir analiz ile ortaya konulmasıdır. İkincisi ise Trump’ın 2025-2029 döneminde uygulayacağı dış ticarete korumacı politikaların olası sonuçlarını irdelemektir. Çalışma sonucunda, korumacılığın Trump yönetimine özgü bir durum olmadığı tarihsel bir analiz ile ortaya konulmuştur. Trump’ın 2025-2029 döneminde uygulayacağı dış ticarete korumacı politikaların olası ekonomik sonuçlarının; küresel ölçekte ekonomik büyümede zayıflama, enflasyonda ve işsizlikte yükselişe neden olacağı beklenirken; jeopolitik ve sosyal sonuçları ise küresel ölçekte gerginliklerin yükselişi, bölgesel kutuplaşmanın artışı, milliyetçilik ve küreselleşme karşıtı duygunun yükselişi, silahlanma yarışı ve savaş ortamına zemin hazırlaması beklenmektedir.

Keywords

Dış ticaret , Tarifeler , Yeni Korumacılık , Ticaret Savaşları

New Protectionism and Trade Wars in Foreign Trade: Trumpism

Abstract

Protectionism in foreign trade includes government policies designed to restrict imports and support local industries. These policies consist of the implementation of tools such as tariffs, quotas, subsidies, and trade restrictions that aim to protect local economies from global competition. While protectionist measures in foreign trade support local industries and lead to increased domestic employment and reduced unemployment, they also carry the risks of causing several problems such as economic inefficiencies, trade wars, and higher costs for consumers. The two main objectives of this study are to demonstrate through historical analysis that protectionism in foreign trade is not a situation specific to the Trump administration. The second is to examine the possible outcomes of Trump’s protectionist policies in foreign trade that he will implement during the 2025-2029 period. As a result of the study, it is demonstrated through a historical analysis that protectionism is not a situation specific to the Trump administration. The possible economic outcomes of Trump’s protectionist policies in foreign trade that he will implement during the 2025-2029 period are; While it is expected to cause a weakening of economic growth, an increase in inflation and unemployment on a global scale, its geopolitical and social consequences are expected to be the rise of tensions on a global scale, an increase in regional polarization, the rise of nationalism and anti-globalization sentiment, an arms race and paving the way for war..

Keywords

Foreign trade , Tariffs , New Protectionism , Trade Wars

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