Orta Doğu'da Değişen Güç ve Güvenlik Dinamikleri

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 11 Eylül saldırılarından 7 Ekim 2023’te Hamas’ın İsrail’e gerçekleştirdiği saldırı sonrasındaki gelişmelere kadar uzanan süreçte Orta Doğu’daki değişen güç ve güvenlik dinamiklerini ele almaktadır. Eleştirel bir bakışla Yapısal realizm ve Neoklasik realizm yaklaşımını benimseyerek, tarihsel olarak küresel güçlerin belirgin etkisine karşın bölgesel aktörlerin-hem devlet hem de devlet dışı yapıların-güvenlik sonuçlarını şekillendirmede artan bir yetkinliğe sahip olduğunu savunmaktadır. Arap Baharı, vekâlet savaşlarının derinleşmesi ve kimlik temelli hareketlerin yükselişi, içsel ve dışsal sebepler arasındaki etkileşimi gözler önüne sermektedir. Hem sert hem de yumuşak güce dayanan bir bileşik endeks üzerinden yapılan analiz, Suudi Arabistan, İsrail, Türkiye ve İran’ı temel güç odakları olarak ortaya koyarken; küçük ölçekli devletler ile devlet dışı aktörlerin çatışma ve iş birliği örüntülerine kayda değer etkide bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular, Orta Doğu’nun ne tam olarak uluslararası rekabetten bağımsız bir alt sistem ne de bütünüyle dışa bağımlı bir yapı olduğunu, aksine sistemik ve yerel baskıların kesiştiği dinamik bir alan oluşturduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Orta Doğu
• Güç Dinamikleri
• Güvenlik Mimarisi
• Devlet Dışı Aktörler
• Arap Baharı
• Hamas-İsrail Çatışması.

The Changing Power and Security Dynamics in the Middle East

Abstract

This article examines the shifting power and security dynamics in the Middle East, focusing on the period from the 9/11 attacks to the escalation that followed Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023. Drawing on structural realism and neoclassical realism, the study argues critically that while global powers have historically exerted significant influence, regional actors-both state and non-state- have acquired increased agency in shaping security outcomes. The Arab Spring, the entrenchment of proxy wars, and the rise of identity-based mobilizations illustrate the interplay between domestic and external drivers. Using a composite index of hard and soft power, the analysis identifies Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, and Iran as regional pivotal players, with smaller states and non-state factions affecting patterns of conflict and cooperation. The findings emphasize that the Middle East functions as neither a purely subordinate subsystem nor one fully autonomous from international competition, but rather as a fluid arena where systemic and local pressures converge.

Keywords

• Middle East
• Power Dynamics
• Security Architecture
• Non-State Actors
• Arab Spring
• Hamas–Israel Conflict.

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