Exploring Country-Specific Effects on the Human Capital Index: A Cross-National Hierarchical Regression Using QoG (Quality of Government) Data for Greece and Turkey

Year 2026, Issue: 18, 239 - 270, 31.01.2026

Antonis Papaoikonomou

https://doi.org/10.53791/imgelem.1802501

Abstract

This study investigates the policy mechanisms that accelerate national human capital growth in a knowledge-defined global economy. Utilizing longitudinal data from the Quality of Government (QoG) database, the re-search employs hierarchical regression analysis to evaluate the impact of four key domains on the Human Capital Index (HCI): public spending, gender equality, vocational training quality, and social investment. The results challenge traditional “input-focused” models by demonstrating that while public education spending is positive-ly associated with development, it is insufficient in isolation. Increased funding fails to translate into a more competent workforce if delivery systems remain inefficient or exclusionary. Instead, quality and equity emerge as the most decisive factors for long-term sustainability. Notably, gender equality was identified as the strongest and most consistent predictor of a high HCI. This suggests that inclusive, gender-sensitive policies are not mere-ly social aspirations but essential economic conditions for building a resilient workforce. In contrast, the effects of vocational training and social investment were found to be more volatile, as their success depends heavily on regional industrial frameworks and supportive structural contexts. By highlighting the transformative agency of government policy, this study disputes deterministic views of national development. It concludes that the most effective way to improve a nation’s HCI is to move beyond fiscal inputs and prioritize equitable educational outcomes. Ultimately, a nation’s greatest advancement in human capital results from dismantling the barriers that prevent women from reaching their full intellectual and professional potential.

Keywords

Human Capital Index , Education Policy , Gender Equality , Educational Expenditure , Hierarchical Regression , Cross-National Analysis.

İnsan Sermayesi Endeksi Üzerindeki Ülkeye Özgü Etkilerin İncelenmesi: Yunanistan ve Türkiye İçin QoG (Yönetişim Kalitesi) Verileri Kullanılarak Yapılan Uluslararası Hiyerarşik Regresyon Analizi.

Abstract

Bu çalışma, İnsan Sermayesi Endeksi’nin (HCI) belirleyicilerini araştırmak amacıyla, Yönetişim Kalitesi (QoG) veritabanından elde edilen uluslararası verileri kullanarak hiyerarşik çoklu regresyon analizi uygulamaktadır. Araştırma, dört temel eğitim politikası göstergesinin öngörü gücünü incelemektedir: eğitime yönelik kamu harcamaları, eğitimde cinsiyet eşitliği, mesleki eğitimin kalitesi ve eğitime yönelik sosyal harcamalar. Analiz sonuçları, yalnızca kamu harcamalarının HCI ile istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki göstermediğini ortaya koyarken, kalite ve eşitlik göstergelerinin modele dahil edilmesinin model uyumunu önemli ölçüde artırdığını göstermektedir. Eğitimde cinsiyet eşitliği, marjinal olarak anlamlı bir yordayıcı olarak öne çıkmakta ve kapsayıcı eğitim politikalarının önemini vurgulamaktadır. Beklentilerin aksine, ulusal bağlamı temsil eden ülkeye özgü kukla değişkenlerin modele eklenmesi açıklayıcı gücü artırmamıştır. Bu durum, politika düzeyindeki değişkenlerin insan sermayesi çıktıları üzerindeki etkilerinin coğrafi ve ulusal sınırları aşabileceğini düşündürmektedir. Bu bulgular, eğitim finansmanına dair geleneksel varsayımları sorgulamakta ve özellikle cinsiyet eşitliğine yönelik hedefli yatırımların, yalnızca toplam harcama düzeylerinden daha etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, insan sermayesinin çok boyutlu doğasını vurgulamakta ve bütçe artışından ziyade eğitimde kalite ve kapsayıcılığı hedefleyen politika müdahaleleri için ampirik destek sunmaktadır.

Keywords

İnsan Sermayesi Endeksi , Eğitim Politikası , Cinsiyet Eşitliği , Eğitim Harcamaları , Hiyerarşik Regresyon , Uluslararası Karşılaştırmalı Analiz

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