Irak ve İran: Irak-İran Savaşının Poliheuristik Teori Çerçevesinde Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2025, Volume: 15 Issue: 1, 78 - 93, 07.03.2025

Fatih Oğuzhan İpek

Abstract

Irak-İran krizi dünyanın en karmaşık çatışmalarından biridir. Bu makale, Irak-İran krizi sırasında Irak’ın karar alma sürecini analiz etmek için poliheuristik (PH) teoriyi kullanıyor. Araştırma, Mintz’in (1993, 2004) PH modelini kullanarak, Irak liderlerinin erişebildiği başlıca politika boyutlarını ve seçeneklerini inceleyerek bu dönemdeki karar alma süreçlerini ve sonuçlarını ortaya çıkarmayı amaçlamaktadır. Ayrıca, Ortadoğu siyasetinde yükselen bir güç olan Irak’ın, Pehlevi İranı ile başlatılan diplomasi çabalarını sürdürmek yerine neden devrim sonrası İran›a savaş açtığı sorusuna bir cevap aramaktadır. Bulgular, mevcut PH literatürüyle uyumludur ve Iraklı karar vericilerin kriz sırasında iki aşamalı bir karar alma yaklaşımı izlediğini ortaya koymaktadır. İlk aşamada, Irak liderleri telafi edici olmayan prensibine bağlı kalarak kayıplara yol açabilecek seçenekleri bir kenara bıraktılar. İkinci aşamada, beklenen fayda maksimizasyonu Irak Devlet Başkanı Saddam Hüseyin’in kararlarını yönlendirdi.

Keywords

Irak, İran, Irak-İran Savaşı, Poliheuristik Teori

Iraq and Iran: A Poliheuristic Assessment of the Iraq-Iran War

Abstract

The Iraq-Iran crisis stands as one of the most intricate conflicts in the Middle East. This study employs the poliheuristic (PH) theory to scrutinize Iraq’s decision-making throughout the crisis. Utilizing Mintz’s (1993, 2004) PH model, the research aims to uncover the decision-making processes and outcomes during this period by scrutinizing the major policy dimensions and options accessible to Iraq’s leadership. In addition, it seeks an answer to the question of why Iraq, as a rising power in Middle Eastern politics, waged war against revolutionary Iran rather than sustaining diplomacy efforts initiated with Pehlevi Iran. The findings align with existing PH literature, revealing that Iraqi decision-makers followed a two-stage decision-making approach during the crisis. In the first stage, Iraqi leaders discarded options that could lead to losses, adhering to a non-compensatory rule. In the second stage, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s decisions were guided by expected utility maximization.

Keywords

Iraq, Iran, Iraq-Iran War, Poliheurestic Theory

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