Analyzing Party Positions and Electoral Dynamics in Turkey

Abstract

This article examines the June and November 2015 general elections in Turkey – the final elections

before Turkey’s transition into a presidential system – focusing on the political environment leading up

to the elections, the coalition deals and potential coalition scenarios between the two elections and the

aftermath of the November elections. The analysis is two-fold: first section looks into the background

of electoral politics in Turkey and how policy dimensions of parties changed or stabilized over the years,

covering the concepts of coalition potential, party adaptability and survival. The second section looks

into electoral geography in Turkey, changes in voting patterns, strategic voting and the discrepancies

in numbers in 2015.

Keywords

• Turkish Politics,Elections,Coalitions,Party Positions,Party Politics,AKP

Türkiye’de Partilerin Konumları ve Seçim Dinamiklerinin Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma Türkiye’de başkanlık sistemine geçilmeden önceki son seçimler olan Haziran ve Kasım

2015 genel seçimlerini, seçimler öncesindeki siyasi sürece, iki seçim arasındaki dönemde yapılmış

olan koalisyon görüşmelerine, olası koalisyon senaryolarına, ve seçimler sonrasındaki gelişmelere

bakarak, incelemektedir. Bu analiz iki bölüme ayrılmaktadır. İlk bölüm Turkiye’de seçimlerin arka

planını incelemekte; koalisyon potansiyeli, partilerin adaptasyonu ve partilerin kalıcılığı gibi kavramlar

üzerinden, politika alanlarına göre parti konumlarının yıllar içerisinde ne kadar değişip değişmediğini

analiz etmektedir. İkinci kısım ise Turkiye’deki seçim coğrafyasını ele alarak 2015’teki oy verme

eğilimlerini, stratejik oyları ve seçim sonuçlarındaki uyuşmazlıkları tartışmaktadır.

Keywords

• Türk siyaseti,Seçimler,Koalisyonlar,Party Konumları,Parti Siyaseti,AKP

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