Analyzing Party Positions and Electoral Dynamics in Turkey

Öz

This article examines the June and November 2015 general elections in Turkey – the final elections

before Turkey’s transition into a presidential system – focusing on the political environment leading up

to the elections, the coalition deals and potential coalition scenarios between the two elections and the

aftermath of the November elections. The analysis is two-fold: first section looks into the background

of electoral politics in Turkey and how policy dimensions of parties changed or stabilized over the years,

covering the concepts of coalition potential, party adaptability and survival. The second section looks

into electoral geography in Turkey, changes in voting patterns, strategic voting and the discrepancies

in numbers in 2015.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turkish Politics,Elections,Coalitions,Party Positions,Party Politics,AKP

Türkiye’de Partilerin Konumları ve Seçim Dinamiklerinin Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma Türkiye’de başkanlık sistemine geçilmeden önceki son seçimler olan Haziran ve Kasım

2015 genel seçimlerini, seçimler öncesindeki siyasi sürece, iki seçim arasındaki dönemde yapılmış

olan koalisyon görüşmelerine, olası koalisyon senaryolarına, ve seçimler sonrasındaki gelişmelere

bakarak, incelemektedir. Bu analiz iki bölüme ayrılmaktadır. İlk bölüm Turkiye’de seçimlerin arka

planını incelemekte; koalisyon potansiyeli, partilerin adaptasyonu ve partilerin kalıcılığı gibi kavramlar

üzerinden, politika alanlarına göre parti konumlarının yıllar içerisinde ne kadar değişip değişmediğini

analiz etmektedir. İkinci kısım ise Turkiye’deki seçim coğrafyasını ele alarak 2015’teki oy verme

eğilimlerini, stratejik oyları ve seçim sonuçlarındaki uyuşmazlıkları tartışmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türk siyaseti,Seçimler,Koalisyonlar,Party Konumları,Parti Siyaseti,AKP

Kaynakça

1. Books Çarkoğlu, Ali, and Ersin Kalaycıoğlu. (2007). Turkish democracy today. New York, NY: I. B. Tauris. Esmer, Yılmaz. (2002). At the ballot box: Determinants of voting behavior in Turkey and Introduction. In Sabri Sayarı and Yılmaz Esmer, (eds.) Politics, parties and elections in Turkey. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner. Goguel, François. (1951). Geographie des elections Francaises de 1870 d 1951. Paris: Colin. Hirschman, Albert Otto. (1970). Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Katz, Richard S. and Peter Mair (eds.). (1994). How Parties Organize: Change and Adaptation in Party Organization in Western Democracies. London, UK: Sage. Kumbaracıbaşı, Arda C. (2009). Turkish politics and the rise of the AKP: Dilemmas of institutionalization and leadership strategy. London, UK: Routledge. Laver, Michael, and Kenneth Benoit. (2006). Party Policy in Modern Democracies. London: Routledge. Panebianco, Angelo. (1988). Political parties: Organization and power. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Sartori, Giovanni. (1976). Parties and party systems: A framework for analysis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Sayarı, Sabri, and Yılmaz Esmer (eds.). (2002). Politics, parties and elections in Turkey. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner. Siegfried, André. (1949). Géographie électorale de l’ardèche sous la IIIe république. Paris: Colin. Periodicals Agnew, John. (1996). Mapping politics: How context counts in Electoral Geography. Political Geography 15: 129-146. Bardakçı, Mehmet. (2016). Parliamentary Elections in Turkey: Demise and Revival of AKP’s Single-Party Rule. Turkish Studies 17, no. 1: 4-18. Canon, David T., and David J. Sousa. (1992). Party system change and political career structures in the U.S. Congress. Legislative Studies Quarterly 17, no. 3: 347–363. Çarkoğlu, Ali, and Ersin Kalaycıoğlu. (2009). The Rising Tide of Conservatism in Turkey. New York, NY: Palgrave. Çarkoğlu, Ali, and Kerem Yıldırım. (2015). Election Storm in Turkey: What do the Results of June and November 2015 Elections Tell Us? Insight Turkey 17, no. 4: 57-79. Ecevit, Y. Alper, and Gülnur Kocapınar. (2018). Do Party Lists Matter? Political Party Strategies in Legislative Candidate Nominations. Parliamentary Affairs 71, no. 3: 697–716. Heller, William B., and Carol Mershon. (2005). Party switching in the Italian Chamber of Deputies, 1996– 2001. The Journal of Politics 67, no. 2: 536–559. Kalaycıoğlu, Ersin. (2007). Politics of Conservatism in Turkey. Turkish Studies 8, no. 2: 233-52. Kalaycıoğlu, Ersin. (2008). Attitudinal Orientation to Party Organizations in Turkey in the 2000s. Turkish Studies 9, no. 2: 297-316. Kalaycıoğlu, Ersin. (2010). Justice and Development Party at the Helm: Resurgence of Islam or Restitution of the Right-of-Center Predominant Party? Turkish Studies 11, no. 1: 29-44. Kalaycıoğlu, Ersin. (2016). The Conundrum of Coalition Politics in Turkey. Turkish Studies 17, no. 1: 31-8. Kalaycıoğlu, Ersin. (2017). Two Elections and a Political Regime in Crisis: Turkish Politics at the Crossroads. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14683.857.2017.1379148. 10.1080/14683.857.2017.1379148. Kemahlıoğlu, Özge. (2015). Winds of Change? The June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey. South European Society and Politics 20, no. 4: 445-64. Kemahlıoğlu, Özge and Sabri Sayarı. (2017). Defecting alone or splitting together? Individual and collective party switching by legislators. Public Choice 171, no. 1-2: 187-206. Kumbaracıbaşı, Arda C. (2016). An aggregate analysis of the AKP vote and electoral continuities in the Turkish party system. Turkish Studies 17, no. 2: 223-250. Prescott, John Robert Victor. (1959). The function and methods of electoral geography. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 49, no. 3 (Part 1): 296-304. Sayarı, Sabri. (2007). Towards a New Turkish Party System? Turkish Studies 8, no. 2: 197-210. Sayarı, Sabri. (2016). Back to a Predominant Party System: The November 2015 Snap Election in Turkey. South European Society and Politics 21, no. 2: 263-80. Online Sources Democracy Barometer: www.democracybarometer.org (accessed 31 May 2017). Emanuele, V. (2015). Dataset of Electoral Volatility and its internal components in Western Europe since 1945. Rome: Italian Center for Electoral Studies, http://dx.doi.org/10.7802/1112 (accessed 31 May 2017). Freedom House: www.freedomhouse.org (accessed 31 May 2017). Meyersson, Erik. (2015). Digit Tests and the Peculiar Election Dynamics of Turkey’s November Elections. https://erikmeyersson.com/2015/11/04/digit-tests-and-the-peculiar-election-dynamics-ofturkeys- november-elections (accessed 30 June 2017). Meyersson, Erik. (2017). The Curious Case of the Vanishing Never-AKPers in Southeastern Turkey. https:// erikmeyersson.com/2017/04/17/the-curious-case-of-the-vanishing-never-akpers-in-southeasternturkey (accessed 30 June 2017). The World Justice Project: www.worldjusticeproject.org (accessed 31 May 2017). Transparency International: www.transparency.org.uk (accessed 31 May 2017). World Press Freedom Index: www.rsf.org (accessed 31 May 2017). Worldwide Governance Indicators: www.govindicators.org (accessed 31 May 2017).