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Sınırlı Rasyonellik Modeli Çerçevesinde İran’ın Doğu’ya Bakış Politikası

Year 2022, , 1 - 26, 30.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.33201/iranian.1095964

Abstract

Doğu’ya Bakış politikası; İran’ın, Batı ile yüzleşmek için Doğu ülkeleriyle ilişkilerini güçlendirmesini hedefleyen bir dış politika vizyonudur. İlk kez Cumhurbaşkanı Mahmud Ahmedinejad Dönemi’nde İran’ın maruz kaldığı yaptırım ve izolasyonu kırmak amacıyla uygulanmaya başlanmıştır. Ancak Hasan Ruhani’nin 2013 yılında cumhurbaşkanlığı görevine gelmesiyle birlikte izlediği Batı ile yapıcı angajman politikası kapsamında Doğu’ya Bakış politikasının Batı’yı dengeleme yönü ön plana çıkmıştır. ABD Başkanı Donald Trump’ın Mayıs 2018’de Kapsamlı Ortak Eylem Planı’ndan (KOEP, Nükleer Anlaşma) çekilerek İran’a karşı sert yaptırımlar uygulamasına istinaden İran dış politikasının yönü bir kez daha Doğu’ya dönmüştür. İran’da daha çok muhafazakâr cephe tarafından desteklenen Doğu’ya Bakış politikasının, İbrahim Reisi’nin Cumhurbaşkanı olmasıyla birlikte yeniden İran dış politikasında öne çıktığı görülmüştür. Ancak Reisi hükûmetinin uyguladığı şekliyle Doğu’ya Bakış politikası, çeşitli kısıtlama ve çıkmazlarla karşı karşıyadır. Bu makalenin amacı, söz konusu politikayı dış politika analizi modelleri arasında yeri olan sınırlı rasyonellik modeli perspektifinden değerlendirmek ve bu politikanın esasen mutlak bir rasyonel tercih olmadığını, dış politika karar alıcılarının sınırlı alternatifler arasından en uygun olanını seçmesiyle oluşan zorunlu ve kısıtlı bir tercih olduğunu ortaya koymaktır.

References

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  • Global Times. (2022, Ocak 14). US’s Trade with China surges 28.7% in 2021. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202201/1245953.shtml
  • Guvheri, A. (2018). Cayigah-ı Çin der Siyaset-i Nigah be Şark-ı İran [China’s Role in Look to the East Policy of Iran]. Mutalaat-ı Siyasi. 1-19. https://www.sid.ir/fa/plan/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=89222
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  • Levy, J. S. (1997). Prospect theory, rational choice, and international relations. International Studies Quarterly, 41(1), 87-112. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2600908
  • Molavi, A. (2019, Mayıs 16). China’s global investments are declining everywhere except for one region. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/16/chinas-global-investments-are-declining-everywhere-except-for-one-region/
  • Moravcsik, A. (1997). Taking preferences seriously: a liberal theory of international politics. International Organization, 51(4), 513-554. https://doi.org/10.1162/002081897550447
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  • Pirselami, F. E. (2016). Revabet-i Çin ve İran der Devre-yi Ahmedinejad [Iran-China Relations Under Ahmadinejad]. Faslname-yi Mutalaat-ı Beynelmilel. 32, 9-49. https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=275805
  • Seyadi, H., Senayi A. (2018). Cayigah-ı Gufteman-ı Nigah be Şark der Siayset-i Harici-yi İran [The Place of Look to the East Discourse in Changing Iran’s Foreign Policy Approach]. Mutalaat-ı Avrasya-yı Merkezi. 12, 115-135. https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=500827
  • Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man; social and rational. Wiley.
  • Simon, H. A. (1985). Human nature in politics: the dialogue of psychology with political science. The American Political Science Review, 79(2), 293-304. https://doi.org/10.2307/1956650
  • Stewart, J. (1993). Rational choice theory, public policy and the liberal state. Policy Sciences, 26(4), 317-330. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00999475
  • Tayfur, F. (2005). Dış politika. İçinde A. Eralp (Ed.), Devlet ve ötesi: Uluslararası ilişkilerde temel kavramlar (s. 73-105). İletişim Yayınları.
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Iran’s Look to the East Policy in the Framework of Bounded Rationality Model

Year 2022, , 1 - 26, 30.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.33201/iranian.1095964

Abstract

The Look to the East policy is a foreign policy vision that aims to strengthen Iran's relations with Eastern countries in order to confront the West. The look to the East policy first entered the implementation phase during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Era, when Iran was exposed to extensive sanctions and isolated from the international system. However, when Hassan Rouhani took office in 2013, within the scope of his constructive engagement with the West policy, balancing the West aspect of the policy of look to the East policy came to the fore. Implementation of harsh sanctions against Iran following Donald Trump's announcement that the US withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal in May 2018, as well as the tension in relations with the West towards the end of Rouhani's presidency, the direction of Iran's foreign policy once again turned to the East. Following Raisi’s inauguration, it was seen that the policy of look to the East, which was supported by the conservative front in Iran, came to the fore once again. However, the look to the East policy, as implemented by the Raisi government, is faced with various constraints and impasses. This article aims to analyze the Look to the East policy through the Bounded Rationality Model, which has a place among the foreign policy analysis models. In this context, this article intends to reveal that this policy is not an absolute rational choice, but a compulsory and limited choice formed by the foreign policy decision makers choosing the most appropriate one among the limited alternatives.  

References

  • Adler, E. (2007). Constructivism and international relations. İçinde W. Carlsnaes, T. Risse & B. A. Simmons (Ed.), Handbook of International Relations (s. 95-119). Sage Publications. https://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781446247587
  • Alimov, R. (2018). The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Its role and place in the development of Eurasia. Journal of Euasian Studies, 9(2), 114-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euras.2018.08.001
  • Allison, G., & Zelikow, P. (1999). The essence of decision: explaining the Cuban issile crisis. Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers.
  • Alperen, Ü. (2018). Çin’in İran Nükleer Politikası: Ulusal Çıkar ve “Sorumlu Büyük Güç” Arasında Denge. İran Çalışmaları Dergisi, 2(2), 11-35. https://doi.org/10.33201/iranian.510584
  • Arab News. (2022, Ocak 20). Saudi Arabia is top oil supplier to China in 2021. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2008206/business-economy
  • Batmanghelidj, E. (2020, Nisan 28). Iran can no longer rely trade with China. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-27/iran-can-no-longer-rely-on-trade-with-china
  • Behrooz, M. (1990). Trends in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 1979–88. İçinde N. R. Keddie & M. J. Gasiorowski (Ed.), Neither East Nor West: Iran, the Soviet Union, and the United States (s.13-35). Yale University Press.
  • Bolton, R., & Bolton, D. G. (1996). People styles at work. Amacom.
  • Bozorger, K., & Adami, A. (2019). Tahlil-i Rahbordi der Siyaset-i Harici-yi İran [Strategic Analysis in Iranian Foreign Policy]. Mutalaat-ı Siyasi. 9, 2-28. https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=116975
  • Carlsnaes, W. (2007). Foreign Policy. İçinde W. Carlsnaes, T. Risse and B. A. Simmons (Ed.), Handbook of International Relations (s.331-350). Sage Publications. https://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781446247587.n12
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  • Doyle, M. W. (2008). Liberalism and foreign policy. İçinde Steve Smith (Ed.), Foreign policy- theories, actors, cases (s. 54-78). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/hepl/9780198708902.003.0003
  • DW. (2022). Defa ez Siyaset-i Nigah be Şark. https://www.dw.com/fa-ir/دفاع-از-سیاست-نگاه-به-شرق-در-آستانه-سفر-رئیسی-به-روسیه/a-60465307
  • Ecoiran. (2021). Sahm-ı İran ez Bazar-ı Rusya; Takriben Hiç. https://ecoiran.com/بخش-تجارت-121/11147-سهم-ایران-از-بازار-روسیه-تقریبا-هیچ
  • Emiri, R. & Henar, M. (2019). Peyamed hay-ı Siyasi-İktisadi-yi Tovsea-ı Revabet-i İran ve Çin der Çarçob-ı Nigah be Şark [Political-Economic Consequences of theDevelopment of Iran-China Relations in the Framework of the Look to the East Policy]. Mutalaat-ı Siyasi. 40, 63-102. https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=481104
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  • Fars News. (2022b). Destavurd-ı Sefer hay-ı Harici-yi Reisi. https://www.farsnews.ir/news/14001208000502
  • Fars News. (2022c). Vakeniş-i İslahtaleban be Derhast-ı Tazmin-i Çin ve Rusya. https://www.farsnews.ir/news/14001215000671
  • Financial Tribune. (2022, Ocak 23). 2021 trade with China hit $ 14.7b. https://financialtribune.com/articles/domestic-economy/112207/2021-trade-with-china-hit-147b
  • FMPRC. (2020). China-Arab states cooperation forum holds ninth ministerial conference. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zzjg_663340/xybfs_663590/xwlb_663592/202007/t20200707_530972.html
  • Furlong, G. T. (2005). The conflict resolution toolbox: models and maps for analyzing, diagnosing, and resolving conflict. Wiley Press.
  • Global Times. (2022, Ocak 14). US’s Trade with China surges 28.7% in 2021. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202201/1245953.shtml
  • Guvheri, A. (2018). Cayigah-ı Çin der Siyaset-i Nigah be Şark-ı İran [China’s Role in Look to the East Policy of Iran]. Mutalaat-ı Siyasi. 1-19. https://www.sid.ir/fa/plan/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=89222
  • Gülmez, S.B., & Gülmez, B. D. (2020). Dış politika analizi: teorik yaklaşımlar. İçinde B. B. Coşkun & İ. Ruma (Ed.). Dış politika analizi: konu, kuram, yöntem (s. 13-36). Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Hill, C. (2003). The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Huang, E. (2018, Temmuz 19). Chines investment in Israili tech is growing and it’s quite welcome for some. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/chinese-investment-in-israel-technology-is-growing-expert-says.html
  • Hudson, V. M. (2005). Foreign policy analysis: actor-specific theory and the ground of international relations. Foreign Policy Analysis, (1), 1-30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1743-8594.2005.00001.x
  • Institute for Compilation and Publication of Imām Khomeinī's Works. (2017, February). Asl-ı Ne Şarki ve Ne Garbi.International Affairs Department. http://www.imam-khomeini.ir/fa/n21267/اصول_نه_شرقی_و_نه_غربی
  • Iran International. (2022, Ocak 16). Many Iranians are critical of long-term China, Russia deals. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202201163943
  • Iranian Diplomacy. (2022). Çera Moskov Hazır be Froş-ı Selah be Tehran Nist? http://irdiplomacy.ir/fa/news/2009049/چرا-مسکو-حاضر-به-فروش-سلاح-به-تهران-نیست-
  • IRNA. (2021). Hacm-i Ticaret-i İran ve Rusya Rekord-ı Tarihi Sebt Kerd. https://www.irna.ir/news/84630218/حجم-تجارت-ایران-و-روسیه-رکورد-تاریخی-ثبت-کرد
  • Jamaran. (2022). Vakeniş-i Şeriyetmedari be Derhast- Rusiye. https://www.jamaran.news/بخش-بازنشر-59/1543883-واکنش-حسین-شریعتمداری-به-درخواست-روسیه-از-آمریکا-برای-تضمین-برجامی
  • Jones, B. D. (2002). Bounded rationality and public policy: Herbert A. Simon and the decisional foundation of collective choice. Policy Sciences, 35(3), 269-284. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1021341309418
  • Jonge, J. D. (2012). Rethinking rational choice theory. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Khabaronline. (2022). Siyaset-i Nigah be Şark Bişter Şiari Est. https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/1599506/سیاست-نگاه-به-شرق-بیشتر-شعاری-است-تا-گره-مذاکرات-وین-باز-نشود
  • Kubalkova, V. (2001). Foreign policy,international politics, and constructivism. İçinde V. Kubalkova (Ed.). Foreign Policy in a Constructed World (s. 15-35). M.E. Sharp Press.
  • Levy, J. S. (1997). Prospect theory, rational choice, and international relations. International Studies Quarterly, 41(1), 87-112. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2600908
  • Molavi, A. (2019, Mayıs 16). China’s global investments are declining everywhere except for one region. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/16/chinas-global-investments-are-declining-everywhere-except-for-one-region/
  • Moravcsik, A. (1997). Taking preferences seriously: a liberal theory of international politics. International Organization, 51(4), 513-554. https://doi.org/10.1162/002081897550447
  • Motamedi, M. (2021, Eylül 17). Iran denounce unilateralism as it becomes full SCO member. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/17/iran-denounces-unilateralism-as-it-becomes-full-sco-member
  • Nunan, T. (2020). "Neither East Nor West," Neither liberal nor illiberal? Iranian Islamist internationalism in the 1980s. Journal of World History, 31(1), 43-77. https://doi.org/10.1353/jwh.2020.0002
  • Office of the Commissioner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China. (2018). China, UAE agree to lift ties to comprehensive strategic partnership. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/como/eng/news/t1579379.htm
  • Official Web Site of Khamenei. (2018). Preference of East over West is a priority for Iran. https://english.khamenei.ir/news/5481/Preference-of-East-over-West-is-a-priority-for-Iran-Ayatollah
  • Pirselami, F. E. (2016). Revabet-i Çin ve İran der Devre-yi Ahmedinejad [Iran-China Relations Under Ahmadinejad]. Faslname-yi Mutalaat-ı Beynelmilel. 32, 9-49. https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?id=275805
  • Seyadi, H., Senayi A. (2018). Cayigah-ı Gufteman-ı Nigah be Şark der Siayset-i Harici-yi İran [The Place of Look to the East Discourse in Changing Iran’s Foreign Policy Approach]. Mutalaat-ı Avrasya-yı Merkezi. 12, 115-135. https://www.sid.ir/fa/journal/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=500827
  • Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of man; social and rational. Wiley.
  • Simon, H. A. (1985). Human nature in politics: the dialogue of psychology with political science. The American Political Science Review, 79(2), 293-304. https://doi.org/10.2307/1956650
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects International Relations
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Bilgehan Alagöz 0000-0002-6232-2991

Rahimullah Farzam 0000-0002-9981-6047

Publication Date June 30, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022

Cite

APA Alagöz, B., & Farzam, R. (2022). Sınırlı Rasyonellik Modeli Çerçevesinde İran’ın Doğu’ya Bakış Politikası. İran Çalışmaları Dergisi, 6(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.33201/iranian.1095964

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İran Çalışmaları Dergisi bilginin yayılması ve zenginleşmesi için Açık Erişim Politikasına uymaktadır.