Çatışmadan Uzlaşıya Suudi Arabistan-İran İlişkilerinin Evrimini Anlamak

Year 2024, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 189 - 213

Ahmet Üçağaç

https://doi.org/10.33201/iranian.1536750

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Körfez bölgesinin iki rakip gücü olan İran ve Suudi Arabistan arasında son yıllarda yaşanan yumuşama ve normalleşme sürecini açıklamayı ve bu sürecin oluşmasını mümkün faktörleri ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin (ABD) 2003 yılında Irak’ı işgal etmesinden sonra, Körfez bölgesi üç kutuplu bir yapıdan iki kutuplu bir yapıya dönüştü. Irak’ın işgal edilmesiyle bölgedeki üçlü denge bozularak yerini, güvenlik ikilemi ile şekillenen İran ve Suudi Arabistan arasında şiddetli bir rekabete bıraktı. Bu rekabet, 2003’ten 2021’e kadar artan bir yoğunlukla devam etti. Ancak, 2021’den sonra, bu aktörler arasındaki şiddetli rekabet yerini yumuşamaya bırakmaya başladı. Bölgenin iki kilit ülkesinin ilişkilerinde yaşanan bu dönüşüm yerel, bölgesel ve küresel siyasette önemli kırılmalara işaret ederken, çözümlenmesi gereken önemli bir sorunsalı da gün yüzüne çıkardı. Bu bağlamda, mevcut araştırma, “2003’ten sonra artan Körfez bölgesel güvenlik sistemindeki şiddetli rekabet son zamanlarda yerini neden ve nasıl yumuşama ve normalleşmeye bıraktı?” sorusuna yanıt aramaktadır. Bölgesel Güvenlik Kompleksi Teorisi çalışmaya teorik bir çerçeve olarak rehberlik ederken, 2003-2023 arası dönemde Körfez güvenlik kompleksindeki dönüşümlerde rol oynayan düşünsel ve materyal faktörlerin etkisini anlamak için süreç izleme yöntemi kullanılacaktır.

Keywords

İran, Suudi Arabistan, Körfez, Bölgesel Güvenlik Kompleksi, Yumuşama ve Normalleşme

From Conflict to Reconciliation: Understanding the Evolution of Saudi Arabia-Iran Relations

Abstract

This study aims to explain the détente and normalization process between the two rival powers of the Gulf region, Iran and Saudi Arabia, in recent years and to reveal the factors that made it possible. After the United States of America (US) invaded Iraq in 2003, the Gulf region transformed from a tri-polar to a bipolar structure. With the invasion of Iraq, the tripartite balance in the region was disrupted and replaced by a fierce rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, shaped by the security dilemma. This competition continued with increasing intensity from 2003 until 2021. However, after 2021, the fierce competition between these actors began to give way to a softening. This transformation in the relations between the two key countries of the region marked important ruptures in local, regional, and global politics and brought to light an important problem that needs to be resolved. In this context, the research seeks to answer the question, “Why and how has the fierce competition in the Gulf regional security system, which increased after 2003, given way to a recent détente and normalization?” While the Regional Security Complex Theory will guide the study as a theoretical framework, the process tracing method will be utilized to understand the impact of the ideational and material factors that played a role in the transformations of the Gulf security complex in the period 2003-2023.

Keywords

Iran, Saudi Arabia, The Gulf, Regional Security Complex, Detente and Normalization

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