ON THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF THE YIELD SPREAD FOR FUTURE GROWTH AND RECESSION: THE TURKISH CASE

Year 2013, Volume: 1 Issue: 2, 74 - 91, 07.07.2015

Hüseyin Kaya

https://doi.org/10.18825/iremjournal.109062

Cited By: 2

Abstract

This paper investigates the predictive power of the yield spread on future industrial production growth and recession in Turkey.  Employing the linear regression model we find that the yield spread has predictive power when forecasting industrial production growth. The results also suggest that in the inflation targeting monetary policy period, predictive power of the yield spread has increased. Furthermore, we investigate whether the yield spread predicts  recession by employing a probit model. Since no official recessions are available in Turkey, we determine the recessions using the BBQ methodology. The findings suggest that the yield spread predicts the recessions almost one year ahead.

Keywords

yield curve; recession; growth; forecast

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