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Year 2015, Volume: 17 Issue: 2, 109 - 129, 01.06.2015

Yard. Doç. Dr. İsmet Göçer

Abstract

In this study effects of banking sector total credit volume expansion on unemployment were analysed separately by means of unit root test with multiple structural breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009), cointegration test with multiple structural breaks of Maki (2012) and dynamic ordinary least square method for 1986-2013; 2000:Q1-2013:Q2 and 2005:M01-2013:M05 period. As a result of the analysis it was determined that credit volume increases have got a reducing effect on unemployment in Turkey

Keywords

Credit Volume Unemployment Unit Root and Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks

References

  • Açıkgöz, Ş. Balcılar, M. ve Saraçoğlu, B. (2012). Openness and Financial Development: Time Series Evidence for Turkey. International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance. 12(4), 172 - 201.
  • Aslan, Ö. ve Küçükaksoy, I. (2006). Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama. Ekonometri ve İstatistik. 4, 12- 8.
  • Aizenman, J., Pinto, B. ve Sushko, V. (2013). Financial Sector Ups and Downs and the Real Sector in the Open Economy: Up by the Stairs, Down by the Parachute. BIS WP, No: 411.
  • Bai, J. ve Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 18, 1-22.
  • Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. (2011). The Transmission Channels Between the Financial and Real Sectors: A Critical Survey of the Literature. WP. No: 18.
  • BDDK. (2012). Finansal Piyasalar Raporu, Aralık, Ankara.
  • Benmelech, E., Bergman, N.K. ve Seru, A. (2011). Finance and Unemployment, NBER Working Paper. No: 17144.
  • Berk, J.M. (1998). Monetary Transmission: What Do We Know and How Can We Use It? Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review. 51 (205), 145-170.
  • Bernanke, B.S. ve Blinder, A.S. (1992). The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission. The American Economic Review. 82(4), 901-921.
  • Bernanke, B. (1993). Credit in the Macroeconomy, Federal Reserve Bank of Newyork Quarterly Review. 18(1), 50-70.
  • Bernanke, B.S. ve Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 9(4), 27-48.
  • Bertrand, M., Schoar, A. ve Thesmar, D. (2007). Banking Deregulation and Industry Structure: Evidence from the French Banking Reforms of 1985. Journal of Finance. 62(2), 597-628.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L. ve Sanso, A. (2006). Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 68(5), 623-646.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., Kim, D ve Perron, P. (2009). GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses. Econometric Theory. 25, 1754-1792.
  • Castillo, P.J. (2009). Unemployment Threat of the Financial Crisis. Asia-Pacific Social Science Review. 9(1), 41-46.
  • Cecchetti, S.G. (1999). Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review. 9-28.
  • Cengiz, V. ve Duman, M. (2008). Türkiye’de Banka Kredi Kanalının Önemi Üzerine Etki Tepki Fonksiyonlarına Dayalı Bir Değerlendirme (1990-2006). Hacettepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. 26(2), 81-104.
  • Cengiz, V. (2009). Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması İşleyişi ve Ampirik Bulgular. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 33, 225-247.
  • Ceylan, S. ve Durkaya, M. (2010). Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanımı-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 24(2), 21-33.
  • Clausen, V.V. (2002). Unterschiedliche Makroökonomische Strukturen Wirtschaftliche Integration und Einheitliche Geldpolitik in Europa. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik. 222(1), 1-21.
  • Çiçek, M. (2005). Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması: VAR (Vektör Otoregresyon) Yaklaşımıyla Bir Analiz. İktisat İşletme ve Finans. 233, 82-105.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. 1st ed. New York: Wiley.
  • Enders, W. (1996). Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series. John Willey and Song Inc.
  • Erim, N. ve Türk, A. ( 2005). Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2(10), 21-45.
  • Esteve, V. ve Requena, F. (2006). A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presenceof Structural Change. International Journal of the Economics of Business. 13(1), 111-128.
  • Federici, D. ve Caprioli, F. (2009). Financial Development and Growth: An Empirical Analysis. Economic Modelling. 26, 285–294.
  • Gregory, A.W. ve Hansen, B.E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics. 70(1), 99-126.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (1999). Basic Econometrics. Mc Graw Hill. 3rd Edition. İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
  • Gündüz, L. (2001). Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması ve Banka Kredi Kanalı. İMKB Dergisi. 5(18), 13-30.
  • Han, C.K. (2009). Unemployment, Financial Hardship, and Savings in Individual Development Accounts. Journal of Poverty. 13(1), 74-95.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests For Cointegration With Two Unknown Regime Shifts With an Application to Financial Market Integration. Empirical Economics. 35, 497-505.
  • Lee, J. ve Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lumsdaine, R.L. ve Papell, D.H. (1997). Multiple Trend Breaks and The Unit Root Hypothesis. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 79, 212-218.
  • Maki, D. (2012). Tests For Cointegration Allowing For an Unknown Number of Breaks. Economic Modelling. 29(5), 2011-2015.
  • McCaig, B. ve Stengos, T. (2005). Financial Intermediation and Growth: Some Robustness Results. Economics Letters. 88(3), 306–312.
  • Mishkin, F.S. (1995). Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 9(4), 3-10.
  • Mishkin, F.S. (2004). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, 7th Edition, The Addison-Wesley Series in Economics, USA.
  • Ng, S. ve Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometric. 69, 1519-1554.
  • Nilsen, J.H. (2002). Trade Credit and the Bank Lending Channel. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 31(9), 226-253.
  • Oliner, S.D. ve Rudebusch, G.D. (1996). Is There a Broad Credit Channel for Monetary Policy? Federal Reserve Bank Kansas of San Francisco Economic Review. 1, 3-13.
  • Öztürkler, H. ve Çermikli, A.H. (2007). Türkiye'de Bir Parasal Aktarım Kanalı Olarak Banka Kredileri. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar. 44(514), 57-68.
  • Pagano, M. ve Pica, G. (2012). Finance and Employment. Economic Policy. 27(69), 5-55.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica. 57(2), 1361-1401.
  • Perron, P. (1997). Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Veriables. Journal of Econometrics. 80, 355-385.
  • Rajan, R.G. ve Zingales, L. (2003). Saving Capitalism from Capitalist. New York, Crown Business.
  • Romer, C.D. ve Romer, D.H. (1993). Credit Channel or Credit Actions? An Interpretation of the Postwar Transmission Mechanism. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review. 71-149.
  • Saint-Paul, G. (2007). Alternative Strategies for Fighting Unemployment: Lessons from the European Experience. IDEI Working Papers. No: 446.
  • Shabbir, G., Anwar, Sofia, H.Z. ve Imran, M. (2012). Contribution of Financial Sector Development in Reducing Unemployment in Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Finance. 4(1), 260-268.
  • Stiglitz, E.J. ve Weiss, A. (1981). Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information. American Economic Review. 77(3), 393-410.
  • Stock, J. ve Watson, M.W. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica. 61(4), 783-820.
  • Şenkesen, E. (2001). Banka Kredi Kanalı ve Banka Kredi Kanalının VAR Modeli ile Testi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. İstanbul: Marmara Üniversitesi, Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü.
  • Telatar, E. (2002). Fiyat İstikrarı: Ne? Nasıl? Kimin İçin? Ankara: İmaj Yayıncılık.
  • Thesmar, D. ve Thoenig, M. (2004). Financial Market Development and the Rise in Firm Level Uncertainity. CEPR Discussion Paper. No: 4761.
  • Tuğcu, C.T. ve Aslan, A. (2012). Financial Development and Employment: A VAR Analysis for the Case of Turkey. Clute Institute International Conference. Rome, Italy, 561- 565

Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi

Year 2015, Volume: 17 Issue: 2, 109 - 129, 01.06.2015

Yard. Doç. Dr. İsmet Göçer

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de bankacılık sektörü toplam kredi hacminin işsizlik üzerindeki etkileri, Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi, Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eştümleşme testi ve dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi yardımıyla, 1986-2013; 2000:Q1-2013:Q2 ve 2005:M01-2013:M05 dönemleri için ayrı ayrı analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda, Türkiye’de kredi hacmindeki artışların, işsizlik oranını azaltıcı etkiye sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Kredi Hacmi İşsizlik Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök ve Eştümleşme

References

  • Açıkgöz, Ş. Balcılar, M. ve Saraçoğlu, B. (2012). Openness and Financial Development: Time Series Evidence for Turkey. International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance. 12(4), 172 - 201.
  • Aslan, Ö. ve Küçükaksoy, I. (2006). Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama. Ekonometri ve İstatistik. 4, 12- 8.
  • Aizenman, J., Pinto, B. ve Sushko, V. (2013). Financial Sector Ups and Downs and the Real Sector in the Open Economy: Up by the Stairs, Down by the Parachute. BIS WP, No: 411.
  • Bai, J. ve Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 18, 1-22.
  • Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. (2011). The Transmission Channels Between the Financial and Real Sectors: A Critical Survey of the Literature. WP. No: 18.
  • BDDK. (2012). Finansal Piyasalar Raporu, Aralık, Ankara.
  • Benmelech, E., Bergman, N.K. ve Seru, A. (2011). Finance and Unemployment, NBER Working Paper. No: 17144.
  • Berk, J.M. (1998). Monetary Transmission: What Do We Know and How Can We Use It? Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review. 51 (205), 145-170.
  • Bernanke, B.S. ve Blinder, A.S. (1992). The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission. The American Economic Review. 82(4), 901-921.
  • Bernanke, B. (1993). Credit in the Macroeconomy, Federal Reserve Bank of Newyork Quarterly Review. 18(1), 50-70.
  • Bernanke, B.S. ve Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 9(4), 27-48.
  • Bertrand, M., Schoar, A. ve Thesmar, D. (2007). Banking Deregulation and Industry Structure: Evidence from the French Banking Reforms of 1985. Journal of Finance. 62(2), 597-628.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L. ve Sanso, A. (2006). Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 68(5), 623-646.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., Kim, D ve Perron, P. (2009). GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses. Econometric Theory. 25, 1754-1792.
  • Castillo, P.J. (2009). Unemployment Threat of the Financial Crisis. Asia-Pacific Social Science Review. 9(1), 41-46.
  • Cecchetti, S.G. (1999). Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review. 9-28.
  • Cengiz, V. ve Duman, M. (2008). Türkiye’de Banka Kredi Kanalının Önemi Üzerine Etki Tepki Fonksiyonlarına Dayalı Bir Değerlendirme (1990-2006). Hacettepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. 26(2), 81-104.
  • Cengiz, V. (2009). Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması İşleyişi ve Ampirik Bulgular. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 33, 225-247.
  • Ceylan, S. ve Durkaya, M. (2010). Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanımı-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 24(2), 21-33.
  • Clausen, V.V. (2002). Unterschiedliche Makroökonomische Strukturen Wirtschaftliche Integration und Einheitliche Geldpolitik in Europa. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik. 222(1), 1-21.
  • Çiçek, M. (2005). Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması: VAR (Vektör Otoregresyon) Yaklaşımıyla Bir Analiz. İktisat İşletme ve Finans. 233, 82-105.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. 1st ed. New York: Wiley.
  • Enders, W. (1996). Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series. John Willey and Song Inc.
  • Erim, N. ve Türk, A. ( 2005). Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2(10), 21-45.
  • Esteve, V. ve Requena, F. (2006). A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presenceof Structural Change. International Journal of the Economics of Business. 13(1), 111-128.
  • Federici, D. ve Caprioli, F. (2009). Financial Development and Growth: An Empirical Analysis. Economic Modelling. 26, 285–294.
  • Gregory, A.W. ve Hansen, B.E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics. 70(1), 99-126.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (1999). Basic Econometrics. Mc Graw Hill. 3rd Edition. İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
  • Gündüz, L. (2001). Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması ve Banka Kredi Kanalı. İMKB Dergisi. 5(18), 13-30.
  • Han, C.K. (2009). Unemployment, Financial Hardship, and Savings in Individual Development Accounts. Journal of Poverty. 13(1), 74-95.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests For Cointegration With Two Unknown Regime Shifts With an Application to Financial Market Integration. Empirical Economics. 35, 497-505.
  • Lee, J. ve Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lumsdaine, R.L. ve Papell, D.H. (1997). Multiple Trend Breaks and The Unit Root Hypothesis. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 79, 212-218.
  • Maki, D. (2012). Tests For Cointegration Allowing For an Unknown Number of Breaks. Economic Modelling. 29(5), 2011-2015.
  • McCaig, B. ve Stengos, T. (2005). Financial Intermediation and Growth: Some Robustness Results. Economics Letters. 88(3), 306–312.
  • Mishkin, F.S. (1995). Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 9(4), 3-10.
  • Mishkin, F.S. (2004). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, 7th Edition, The Addison-Wesley Series in Economics, USA.
  • Ng, S. ve Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometric. 69, 1519-1554.
  • Nilsen, J.H. (2002). Trade Credit and the Bank Lending Channel. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 31(9), 226-253.
  • Oliner, S.D. ve Rudebusch, G.D. (1996). Is There a Broad Credit Channel for Monetary Policy? Federal Reserve Bank Kansas of San Francisco Economic Review. 1, 3-13.
  • Öztürkler, H. ve Çermikli, A.H. (2007). Türkiye'de Bir Parasal Aktarım Kanalı Olarak Banka Kredileri. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar. 44(514), 57-68.
  • Pagano, M. ve Pica, G. (2012). Finance and Employment. Economic Policy. 27(69), 5-55.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica. 57(2), 1361-1401.
  • Perron, P. (1997). Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Veriables. Journal of Econometrics. 80, 355-385.
  • Rajan, R.G. ve Zingales, L. (2003). Saving Capitalism from Capitalist. New York, Crown Business.
  • Romer, C.D. ve Romer, D.H. (1993). Credit Channel or Credit Actions? An Interpretation of the Postwar Transmission Mechanism. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review. 71-149.
  • Saint-Paul, G. (2007). Alternative Strategies for Fighting Unemployment: Lessons from the European Experience. IDEI Working Papers. No: 446.
  • Shabbir, G., Anwar, Sofia, H.Z. ve Imran, M. (2012). Contribution of Financial Sector Development in Reducing Unemployment in Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Finance. 4(1), 260-268.
  • Stiglitz, E.J. ve Weiss, A. (1981). Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information. American Economic Review. 77(3), 393-410.
  • Stock, J. ve Watson, M.W. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica. 61(4), 783-820.
  • Şenkesen, E. (2001). Banka Kredi Kanalı ve Banka Kredi Kanalının VAR Modeli ile Testi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. İstanbul: Marmara Üniversitesi, Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü.
  • Telatar, E. (2002). Fiyat İstikrarı: Ne? Nasıl? Kimin İçin? Ankara: İmaj Yayıncılık.
  • Thesmar, D. ve Thoenig, M. (2004). Financial Market Development and the Rise in Firm Level Uncertainity. CEPR Discussion Paper. No: 4761.
  • Tuğcu, C.T. ve Aslan, A. (2012). Financial Development and Employment: A VAR Analysis for the Case of Turkey. Clute Institute International Conference. Rome, Italy, 561- 565
There are 54 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA22UT88ED
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Yard. Doç. Dr. İsmet Göçer This is me

Publication Date June 1, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2015 Volume: 17 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Göçer, Y. D. D. İ. (2015). Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi. ISGUC The Journal of Industrial Relations and Human Resources, 17(2), 109-129.
AMA Göçer YDDİ. Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi. isguc. June 2015;17(2):109-129.
Chicago Göçer, Yard. Doç. Dr. İsmet. “Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi”. ISGUC The Journal of Industrial Relations and Human Resources 17, no. 2 (June 2015): 109-29.
EndNote Göçer YDDİ (June 1, 2015) Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi. ISGUC The Journal of Industrial Relations and Human Resources 17 2 109–129.
IEEE Y. D. D. İ. Göçer, “Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi”, isguc, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 109–129, 2015.
ISNAD Göçer, Yard. Doç. Dr. İsmet. “Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi”. ISGUC The Journal of Industrial Relations and Human Resources 17/2 (June 2015), 109-129.
JAMA Göçer YDDİ. Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi. isguc. 2015;17:109–129.
MLA Göçer, Yard. Doç. Dr. İsmet. “Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi”. ISGUC The Journal of Industrial Relations and Human Resources, vol. 17, no. 2, 2015, pp. 109-2.
Vancouver Göçer YDDİ. Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi. isguc. 2015;17(2):109-2.