NATO Üyesi Ülkelerde Savunma Harcamaları ve İstihdam İlişkisi: Bootstrap Panel Nedensellik Testi

Year 2021, Volume: 71 Issue: 1, 231 - 249, 16.07.2021

Şerife Özşahin Gülbahar Üçler

Abstract

Son yıllarda küresel ölçekte yaşanan gerginlikler, jeopolitik riskler, siyasal krizler, bölgesel çatışmalar ve savaşlar ülkelerin savunma harcamalarını artırmasında önemli rol oynamıştır. Savunma harcamalarındaki artış, savunma harcamalarının yol açtığı ekonomik etkileri sıklıkla tartışılan konulardan biri haline getirmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, NATO üyesi 18 ülkede savunma harcamaları ile istihdam oranları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemektir. Bu amaçla, Soğuk Savaş sonrası dönemde savunma harcamaları ve istihdam oranları arasındaki ilişki Kónya (2006) Bootstrap Panel Nedensellik Testi ile analiz edilmiştir. 1991-2018 döneminden elde edilen bulgulara göre panelde yer alan 18 ülkenin 5’inde savunma harcamalarından istihdama doğru, 3’ünde ise istihdam oranlarından savunma harcamalarına doğru nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda, NATO üyesi ülkelerde savunma harcamaları ile istihdam oranı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisine dair genel bir çıkarımda bulunmak mümkün görünmemektedir.

Keywords

Savunma harcamaları, İstihdam, NATO üyesi ülkeler

The Relationship between Defense Expenditures and Employment in NATO Member States: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test

Abstract

In recent years, global tensions, geopolitical risks, political crises, regional conflicts, and wars have played an important role in the increase of defense expenditures of countries. The economic effects of increased defense spending have become one of the frequently discussed topics. The aim of this study is to examine the causal relationship between defense expenditures and employment rates in 18 NATO member countries. To this end, the relationship between defense expenditures and employment rates were analyzed using the Kónya (2006) Bootstrap Panel Causality Test in the post-Cold War period. According to the findings from the 1991-2018 period, a causality relationship was found in 5 of the 18 countries in the panel from defense expenditures to employment, and in 3 of the 18 countries from employment rates to defense expenditures. Thus, it seems impossible to make a general inference about the causality relationship between defense expenditures and employment in NATO member countries.

Keywords

Defense expenditures, Employment, NATO member countries

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