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NATO Üyesi Ülkelerde Savunma Harcamaları ve İstihdam İlişkisi: Bootstrap Panel Nedensellik Testi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 71 Sayı: 1, 231 - 249, 16.07.2021

Öz

Son yıllarda küresel ölçekte yaşanan gerginlikler, jeopolitik riskler, siyasal krizler, bölgesel çatışmalar ve savaşlar ülkelerin savunma harcamalarını artırmasında önemli rol oynamıştır. Savunma harcamalarındaki artış, savunma harcamalarının yol açtığı ekonomik etkileri sıklıkla tartışılan konulardan biri haline getirmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, NATO üyesi 18 ülkede savunma harcamaları ile istihdam oranları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemektir. Bu amaçla, Soğuk Savaş sonrası dönemde savunma harcamaları ve istihdam oranları arasındaki ilişki Kónya (2006) Bootstrap Panel Nedensellik Testi ile analiz edilmiştir. 1991-2018 döneminden elde edilen bulgulara göre panelde yer alan 18 ülkenin 5’inde savunma harcamalarından istihdama doğru, 3’ünde ise istihdam oranlarından savunma harcamalarına doğru nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda, NATO üyesi ülkelerde savunma harcamaları ile istihdam oranı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisine dair genel bir çıkarımda bulunmak mümkün görünmemektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Aydemir, A.F., Ozdemir, D., Kabadayı, B., & Emsen, Ö.S. (2016). The relationship between military expenditures and unemployment in G-20 states. 7th International Conference of Eurasian Economies (pp. 437-444). Kaposvar, Hungary. google scholar
  • Azam, M., Faisal K., & Zaman, K. (2015). Military expenditure and unemployment nexus for selected south asian countries. SocialIndicators Research, 127, 1103-1117. google scholar
  • Bagbaslioglu, A. (2016). A new solution seeking for a timeless issue burden sharing: Smart defence and NATO. Journal of Gazi Academic View, 10(19), 209-215. google scholar
  • Baran, P.A., & Sweezy, P.M. (1966). Monopoly capital: An essay on the American economic and social order. New York: Monthly Reviews Press. google scholar
  • Barker, T., Dunne, P., & Smith, R. (1991). Measuring the peace dividend in the United Kingdom. Journal of Peace Research, 28(4), 345-358. google scholar
  • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and defense in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280. google scholar
  • Breusch, T., & Pagan, A. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its application to model specifications in econometrics. Reviews of Economics Studies, 47, 239-253. google scholar
  • Canning, D., & Pedroni, P. (2008). Infrastructure, long-run economic growth and causality tests for cointegrated panels. The Manchester School, 76(5), 504-527. google scholar
  • Chester, E. (1978). Military spending and capitalist stability CambridgeJournal of Economics, 3, 293-298. google scholar
  • Dimitrescu, E., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29, 1450-1460. google scholar
  • Dunne, J.P., & Watson, D. (2005). Manufacturing growth, technological progress and military expenditures. Working Paper No:0511. Retrieved from http://carecon.org.uk/DPs/0511.pdf google scholar
  • Dunne, P., & Smith, R. (1990). Military expenditure and unemployment in the OECD. Defence and Peace Economics, 1(1), 57-73. google scholar
  • Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28, 870-876. google scholar
  • Huang, J.T., & Kao, A.P. (2005). Does defence spending matter to employment in Taiwan? Defence and Peace Economics, 16(2), 101-115. google scholar
  • Hooker, M., & Knetter, M. (1994). Unemployment effect of military spending: Evidence from a panel of states. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No:4889. google scholar
  • Konya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23, 978-992. google scholar
  • Korkmaz, S. (2015). The effect of military spending on economic growth and unemployment in mediterranean countries. InternationalJournal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1), 273-280. google scholar
  • Malizard, J. (2014). Military spending and unemployment in France. Defence and Peace Economics, 25(6), 635-642. google scholar
  • Navarro, M. S., & Cabello, M. V. (2015). The causal relationship between military spending and unemployment in the EU 15. Social Science Research Network, Retrieved from SRN: https://ssrn. com/abstract=2550136 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2550136 google scholar
  • Paul, S. (1996). Defence spending and unemployment rates: An empirical analysis for the OECD. Journal of Economic Studies, 23(2), 44-54. google scholar
  • Payne, J.E., & Ross, K.L. (1992). Defense spending and the macroeconomy. Defence Economics, 3(2), 161-168. google scholar
  • Pesaran, M.H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. google scholar
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127. google scholar
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-section dependence in panels. CESifo Working Paper No:1229; IZA Discussion Paper 1240. google scholar
  • Qiong, L., & Hu J. (2015). Military expenditure and unemployment in China. Procedia Economics and Finance, 30, 498-504. google scholar
  • Smith, R.P. (1977). Military expenditure and capitalism. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1(1), 61-76. google scholar
  • Simsek, M. (1989). Defense Industry in the Third World countries and Turkey, Ankara, SAGEB. google scholar
  • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (2018). SIPRI yearbook 2018-Armaments, disarmament and international security. Retrieved from https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/ files/2018-11/yb_18_summary_en.pdf google scholar
  • Swamy, P.A.V.B. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica, 38(2), 311-323. http://dx.doi:10.2307/1913012. google scholar
  • Tang, J. H., Lai, C. C., & Lin, E. S. (2009). Military expenditure and unemployment rates: Granger causality tests using global panel data. Defence and Peace Economics, 20(4), 253-267. google scholar
  • Topal, M.H. (2018). An analysis of relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in Turkey (1960-2016). Journal of Finance, 174, 175-202. google scholar
  • Ucler, G. (2017). The effect of defence spending on unemployment in Turkey: An econometric analysis for the period of 1980-2014. Journal of Yasar University, 12(46), 161-170. google scholar
  • Wing, M.M. (1991). Defence spending and employment in Indonesia. Defence Economics, 3, 83-92. google scholar
  • Yildirim, J., & Sezgin, S. (2003). Military expenditure and employment in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 14, 129-139. google scholar
  • Zellner, A. (1962). An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for agregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57, 348-368. google scholar
  • Zhong, M., Chang, T., Tang, D.P., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2015). The causal nexus between military spending and unemployment in the G7: A bootstrap panel causality test. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(6), 609-622. google scholar

The Relationship between Defense Expenditures and Employment in NATO Member States: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 71 Sayı: 1, 231 - 249, 16.07.2021

Öz

In recent years, global tensions, geopolitical risks, political crises, regional conflicts, and wars have played an important role in the increase of defense expenditures of countries. The economic effects of increased defense spending have become one of the frequently discussed topics. The aim of this study is to examine the causal relationship between defense expenditures and employment rates in 18 NATO member countries. To this end, the relationship between defense expenditures and employment rates were analyzed using the Kónya (2006) Bootstrap Panel Causality Test in the post-Cold War period. According to the findings from the 1991-2018 period, a causality relationship was found in 5 of the 18 countries in the panel from defense expenditures to employment, and in 3 of the 18 countries from employment rates to defense expenditures. Thus, it seems impossible to make a general inference about the causality relationship between defense expenditures and employment in NATO member countries.

Kaynakça

  • Aydemir, A.F., Ozdemir, D., Kabadayı, B., & Emsen, Ö.S. (2016). The relationship between military expenditures and unemployment in G-20 states. 7th International Conference of Eurasian Economies (pp. 437-444). Kaposvar, Hungary. google scholar
  • Azam, M., Faisal K., & Zaman, K. (2015). Military expenditure and unemployment nexus for selected south asian countries. SocialIndicators Research, 127, 1103-1117. google scholar
  • Bagbaslioglu, A. (2016). A new solution seeking for a timeless issue burden sharing: Smart defence and NATO. Journal of Gazi Academic View, 10(19), 209-215. google scholar
  • Baran, P.A., & Sweezy, P.M. (1966). Monopoly capital: An essay on the American economic and social order. New York: Monthly Reviews Press. google scholar
  • Barker, T., Dunne, P., & Smith, R. (1991). Measuring the peace dividend in the United Kingdom. Journal of Peace Research, 28(4), 345-358. google scholar
  • Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and defense in developing countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280. google scholar
  • Breusch, T., & Pagan, A. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and its application to model specifications in econometrics. Reviews of Economics Studies, 47, 239-253. google scholar
  • Canning, D., & Pedroni, P. (2008). Infrastructure, long-run economic growth and causality tests for cointegrated panels. The Manchester School, 76(5), 504-527. google scholar
  • Chester, E. (1978). Military spending and capitalist stability CambridgeJournal of Economics, 3, 293-298. google scholar
  • Dimitrescu, E., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29, 1450-1460. google scholar
  • Dunne, J.P., & Watson, D. (2005). Manufacturing growth, technological progress and military expenditures. Working Paper No:0511. Retrieved from http://carecon.org.uk/DPs/0511.pdf google scholar
  • Dunne, P., & Smith, R. (1990). Military expenditure and unemployment in the OECD. Defence and Peace Economics, 1(1), 57-73. google scholar
  • Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28, 870-876. google scholar
  • Huang, J.T., & Kao, A.P. (2005). Does defence spending matter to employment in Taiwan? Defence and Peace Economics, 16(2), 101-115. google scholar
  • Hooker, M., & Knetter, M. (1994). Unemployment effect of military spending: Evidence from a panel of states. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No:4889. google scholar
  • Konya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23, 978-992. google scholar
  • Korkmaz, S. (2015). The effect of military spending on economic growth and unemployment in mediterranean countries. InternationalJournal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1), 273-280. google scholar
  • Malizard, J. (2014). Military spending and unemployment in France. Defence and Peace Economics, 25(6), 635-642. google scholar
  • Navarro, M. S., & Cabello, M. V. (2015). The causal relationship between military spending and unemployment in the EU 15. Social Science Research Network, Retrieved from SRN: https://ssrn. com/abstract=2550136 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2550136 google scholar
  • Paul, S. (1996). Defence spending and unemployment rates: An empirical analysis for the OECD. Journal of Economic Studies, 23(2), 44-54. google scholar
  • Payne, J.E., & Ross, K.L. (1992). Defense spending and the macroeconomy. Defence Economics, 3(2), 161-168. google scholar
  • Pesaran, M.H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. google scholar
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127. google scholar
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-section dependence in panels. CESifo Working Paper No:1229; IZA Discussion Paper 1240. google scholar
  • Qiong, L., & Hu J. (2015). Military expenditure and unemployment in China. Procedia Economics and Finance, 30, 498-504. google scholar
  • Smith, R.P. (1977). Military expenditure and capitalism. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1(1), 61-76. google scholar
  • Simsek, M. (1989). Defense Industry in the Third World countries and Turkey, Ankara, SAGEB. google scholar
  • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (2018). SIPRI yearbook 2018-Armaments, disarmament and international security. Retrieved from https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/ files/2018-11/yb_18_summary_en.pdf google scholar
  • Swamy, P.A.V.B. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica, 38(2), 311-323. http://dx.doi:10.2307/1913012. google scholar
  • Tang, J. H., Lai, C. C., & Lin, E. S. (2009). Military expenditure and unemployment rates: Granger causality tests using global panel data. Defence and Peace Economics, 20(4), 253-267. google scholar
  • Topal, M.H. (2018). An analysis of relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in Turkey (1960-2016). Journal of Finance, 174, 175-202. google scholar
  • Ucler, G. (2017). The effect of defence spending on unemployment in Turkey: An econometric analysis for the period of 1980-2014. Journal of Yasar University, 12(46), 161-170. google scholar
  • Wing, M.M. (1991). Defence spending and employment in Indonesia. Defence Economics, 3, 83-92. google scholar
  • Yildirim, J., & Sezgin, S. (2003). Military expenditure and employment in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 14, 129-139. google scholar
  • Zellner, A. (1962). An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for agregation bias. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57, 348-368. google scholar
  • Zhong, M., Chang, T., Tang, D.P., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2015). The causal nexus between military spending and unemployment in the G7: A bootstrap panel causality test. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(6), 609-622. google scholar
Toplam 36 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Şerife Özşahin Bu kişi benim 0000-0001-8310-1816

Gülbahar Üçler Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-5872-8577

Yayımlanma Tarihi 16 Temmuz 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 5 Kasım 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 71 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Özşahin, Ş., & Üçler, G. (2021). The Relationship between Defense Expenditures and Employment in NATO Member States: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 71(1), 231-249.
AMA Özşahin Ş, Üçler G. The Relationship between Defense Expenditures and Employment in NATO Member States: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. Temmuz 2021;71(1):231-249.
Chicago Özşahin, Şerife, ve Gülbahar Üçler. “The Relationship Between Defense Expenditures and Employment in NATO Member States: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 71, sy. 1 (Temmuz 2021): 231-49.
EndNote Özşahin Ş, Üçler G (01 Temmuz 2021) The Relationship between Defense Expenditures and Employment in NATO Member States: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 71 1 231–249.
IEEE Ş. Özşahin ve G. Üçler, “The Relationship between Defense Expenditures and Employment in NATO Member States: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 71, sy. 1, ss. 231–249, 2021.
ISNAD Özşahin, Şerife - Üçler, Gülbahar. “The Relationship Between Defense Expenditures and Employment in NATO Member States: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 71/1 (Temmuz 2021), 231-249.
JAMA Özşahin Ş, Üçler G. The Relationship between Defense Expenditures and Employment in NATO Member States: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2021;71:231–249.
MLA Özşahin, Şerife ve Gülbahar Üçler. “The Relationship Between Defense Expenditures and Employment in NATO Member States: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 71, sy. 1, 2021, ss. 231-49.
Vancouver Özşahin Ş, Üçler G. The Relationship between Defense Expenditures and Employment in NATO Member States: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2021;71(1):231-49.