Formation of Inflation Expectations: An Analysis in terms of Behavioral Economics

Year 2023, , 1095 - 1121, 30.06.2023

Salih Yıldırım , Müslüm Basılgan

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1255246

Abstract

Since inflation expectations are an important determinant of real inflation, they play an important role in the execution of monetary policy. Central banks control the inflation expectations of economic agents and try to make them compatible with the inflation target. Regarding inflation expectations, the basic paradigm in mainstream economics is the rational expectations hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, economic units use all available information to create their expectations and make optimal forecasts for inflation. While making inflation forecasts based on rational expectations, it is accepted that the information is homogeneously distributed and the psychological factors limiting this information are the same. However, studies in the field of behavioral economics have criticized the rational expectations hypothesis based on the importance of incomplete information and uncertainty surrounding inflation forecasts, and the fact that beliefs about inflation can change over time, thus heterogeneity. As a result of these criticisms, alternative behavioral approaches have been developed to explain the formation of inflation expectations. The most important of these approaches are the sticky information model, the rational inattention approach, the epidemiological expectations approach, and the Bayesian learning model. In this context, the main purpose of the study is to reveal, on the basis of theoretical and empirical literature, how inflation expectations occur in real life, unlike rational expectations, in the context of behavioral economics. In the study, it is concluded that inflation expectations are formed as a result of heterogeneity in individual behaviors, contrary to the rational expectations hypothesis, and that behavioral economics makes a significant contribution to central banks both in maintaining price stability and in pursuing an effective monetary policy by explaining the formation of inflation expectations with different psychological approaches. The study revealed the deficiencies in the models that explain inflation expectations according to the rational expectations approach and revealed the importance of behavioral approaches in eliminating this deficiency.

Keywords

Formation of Inflation Expectations, Inflation Expectations Uncertainty, Monetary Policy, Heterogenous Expectations, Behavioral Economics

Enflasyon Bekleyişlerinin Oluşumu: Davranışsal İktisat Açısından Bir Analiz

Abstract

Enflasyon bekleyişleri gerçek enflasyonun önemli bir belirleyicisi olduğundan para politikasının yürütülmesinde önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Merkez bankaları, iktisadi birimlerin enflasyon bekleyişlerini kontrol ederek enflasyon hedefiyle uyumlu olması için çabalamaktadır. Bu uyumun gerçekleşmesi durumunda merkez bankaları enflasyondaki dalgalanmaları daha rahat yönetebilme olanağına sahip olmakta ve enflasyonu kontrol etmede daha başarılı sonuçlar elde etmektedirler. Enflasyon bekleyişleriyle ilgili olarak ana akım iktisatta temel paradigma rasyonel bekleyişler hipotezidir. Bu hipoteze göre iktisadi birimler var olan tüm bilgiden yararlanarak bekleyişlerini oluşturmakta ve enflasyon konusunda optimal tahminlerde bulunmaktadırlar. Rasyonel bekleyişlere dayalı olarak enflasyon tahminleri yapılırken üstelik bilginin homojen dağıldığı ve bu bilgiyi sınırlayan psikolojik faktörlerin de aynı olduğu kabul edilmektedir. Fakat davranışsal iktisat alanında yapılan çalışmalar, enflasyon tahminlerini çevreleyen eksik bilginin ve belirsizliğin önemini ve enflasyon konusunda tutulan inançların zamanla değişebilmesini, dolayısıyla heterojenliği, temel alarak rasyonel bekleyişler hipotezine eleştiriler getirmişlerdir. Bu eleştirilerin sonucunda enflasyon bekleyişlerinin oluşumunu açıklamada alternatif davranışsal yaklaşımlar geliştirilmiştir. Bu yaklaşımların en önemlileri yapışkan bilgi modeli, rasyonel dikkatsizlik yaklaşımı, epidemiyolojik bekleyişler modeli ve Bayesyen öğrenme modelidir. Bu kapsamda çalışmanın temel amacı teorik ve ampirik literatür temelinde enflasyon bekleyişlerinin gerçek yaşamda, rasyonel bekleyişlerden farklı olarak, nasıl oluştuğunu davranışsal iktisat bağlamında ortaya koymaktır. Çalışmada enflasyon bekleyişlerinin, bireysel davranışlardaki heterojenliğin sonucu olarak, rasyonel bekleyişler hipotezine aykırı biçimde oluştuğu, davranışsal iktisadın enflasyon bekleyişlerinin oluşumunu farklı psikolojik yaklaşımlar ile açıklayarak merkez bankalarına hem fiyat istikrarını sağlamada hem de etkin bir para politikası izlemede önemli bir katkı sağladığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Çalışma enflasyon bekleyişlerini rasyonel bekleyişler yaklaşımına göre açıklayan modellerdeki eksikliği ortaya koyarak bu eksikliği gidermede davranışsal yaklaşımların önemini ortaya koymuştur.

Keywords

Enflasyon Bekleyişlerinin Oluşumu, Enflasyon Bekleyişleri Belirsizliği, Para Politikası, Heterojen Bekleyişler, Davranışsal İktisat

References

• Abel, J., Rıch, R., Song, J., & Tracy, J. (2016). The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. 31, 533–550. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae
• Agliari, A., Massaro, D., Pecora, N., & Spelta, A. (2017). Inflation Targeting, Recursive Inattentiveness, and Heterogeneous Beliefs. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 49(7), 1587–1619. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12425
• Akdere, Ç., & Büyükboyacı, M. (2018). Davranışsal İktisat ve Sınırlı Rasyonellik Varsayımı. In İktisatta Davranışsal Yaklaşımlar (2. Baskı, pp. 107–139). Imge Kitabevi.
• Akerlof, G. A. (2002). Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior. The American Economic Review, 92(3), 411–433.
• Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. J. (2009). Animal Spirits: How human psychology drives the economy, and why it matters for global capitalism. Princeton University Press.
• Aklan, N. A., & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2008). Taylor Kuralı: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 62(2), 21–41.
• Albayrak, Ş. G. (2022). Geleneksel İktisattan Davranışsal İktisada: Tüketici Karar ve Tercihleri. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 48, 159–170.
• Amato, J. D., & Laubach, T. (2003). Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy. European Economic Review, 47(5), 791–831. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(02)00270-2
• Anderson, R. D. J., Becker, R., & Osborn, D. R. (2010). Heterogeneity in Consumers ’ Learning to Forecast Inflation (Economic Research).
• Anufriev, M., & Hommes, C. (2012). Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments. 4(4), 35–64.
• Assenza, T., Bao, T., Hommes, C., & Massaro, D. (2014). Experiments on expectations in macroeconomics and finance. Research in Experimental Economics, 17(320278), 11–70. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0193-230620140000017002
• Basılgan, M. (2021). İktisadi Psikoloji II. Divan Kitabevi.
• Beckmann, J., & Czudaj, R. L. (2018). Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, and Information Rigidities. Economic Inquiry, 56(4), 2158–2176. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12587
• Bernanke, B. S. (2007). Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting. Speech, At the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
• Bonham, C. S., & Cohen, R. H. (2001). To aggregate, pool, or neither: Testing the rational-expectations hypothesis using survey data. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19(3), 278–291. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500101681019936
• Brada, J. C., Kubíček, J., Kutan, A. M., & Tomšík, V. (2015). Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics. Eastern European Economics, 53(5), 357–376. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2015.1089733
• Branch, W. A. (2004). The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations. The Economic Journal, 114, 592–621.
• Branch, W. A. (2007). Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(1), 245–276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2005.11.002
• Bräuning, C., & van der Cruijsen, C. (2019). Learning dynamics in the formation of European inflation expectations. Journal of Forecasting, 38(2), 122–135. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2553
• Brito, S., Carriere-Swallow, Y., & Gruss, B. (2018). Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency. In IMF Working Papers (Vol. 18, Issue 24). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484339718.001
• Bryan, M. F., & Venkatu, G. (2001). Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland The Curiously Different Inflation Perspectives of Men and Women. November 2001, 0–3.
• Bryan, M., & Venkatu, G. (2001). The Demographics of Inflation Opinion Surveys. In Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Commentary Research Department.
• Bullard, J. (2016). Inflation Expectations Are Important to Central Bankers, Too. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://www.stlouisfed.org
• Calabria M. A. (2016). Behavioral Economics and FED Policymaking. Cato Journal, 36(3), 573–587.
• Camerer, C. F. (1999). Behavioral economics: Reunifying psychology and economics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96(19), 10575–10577.
• Capistrán, C., & Ramos-Francia, M. (2010). Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(1), 113–134.
• Carroll, C. D. (2003). Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 269–298.
• Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 197–232.
• Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Kamdar, R. (2018). The formation of expectations, inflation, and the Phillips curve. Journal of Economic Literature, 56, 1447–1491. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20171300
• Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S., & Pedemonte, M. (2020). Inflation expectations as a policy tool? Journal of International Economics, 124, 1–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103297
• Croushore, D. (2008). An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data. In Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1677
• Curtin, R. (2005). Inflation Expectations: Theoretical Models and Empirical Tests. Ocean Modelling, 22(3), 1361–1369.
• Curtin, R. T. (2022). A New Theory of Expectations. Journal of Business Cycle Research, 0123456789. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-022-00074-w
• D’Acunto, F., Malmendier, U., & Weber, M. (2022). What Do the Data Tell Us About Inflation Expectations? In National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series (29825). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4056779
• D’Amico, S., & Orphanides, A. (2008). Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Forecasting. In Finance and Economics Discussion Series (Issue 56). https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2008.56
• De Grauwe, P. (2012). Lectures on behavioral macroeconomics. In Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics (Issue November). https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvcmxp1g
• de Mendonça, H. F., Garcia, P. M., & Vicente, J. V. M. (2021). Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey-based and market-based measures. Journal of Forecasting, 40(6), 1027–1053. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2746
• Döpke, J., Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2005). European Inflation Expectations Dynamics (No. 37; Economic Studies).
• Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2012). DISAGREEMENT AMONG FORECASTERS IN G7 COUNTRIES. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1081–1096.
• Dräger, L., Menz, J. O., & Fritsche, U. (2014). Perceived inflation under loss aversion. Applied Economics, 46(3), 282–293. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2013.844328
• Duffy, D., & Lunn, P. D. (2009). The misperception of inflation by Irish consumers. Economic and Social Review, 40(2), 139–163.
• Ehrmann, M., Eijffinger, S., & Fratzscher, M. (2012). The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 114(3), 1018–1052.
• Elliott, G., Komunjer, I., & Timmermann, A. (2005). BIASES IN MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS: IRRATIONALITY OR ASYMMETRIC LOSS? (CAMA Working Paper Series).
• Eusepi, S., Giannoni, M., & Preston, B. (2015). The Limits of Monetary Policy with Long-term Drift in Expectations.
• Evans, G. W., & Honkapohja, S. (2001). Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics. In Princeton University Press. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2005.06.009
• Evans, G. W., & McGough, B. (2020). Adaptive Learning in Macroeconomics. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, 1–44. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.508
• Forsells, M., & Kenny, G. (2004). Survey expectations, rationality and the dynamics of Euro Area Inflation. Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 1, 13–41.
• Frerichs, S. (2019). Bounded sociality: behavioural economists’ truncated understanding of the social and its implications for politics. Journal of Economic Methodology, 26(3), 243–258. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350178X.2019.1625217
• Galati, G., Poelhekke, S., & Zhoua, C. (2011). Did the crisis affect inflation expectations? International Journal of Central Banking, 7(1), 167–207.
• Galvis Ciro, J. C., & Anzoátegui Zapata, J. C. (2019). Disagreement in inflation expectations: empirical evidence for Colombia. Applied Economics, 51(40), 4411–4424. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1591610
• Gnan, E., Langthaler, J., & Valderrama, M. T. (2010). Shocks, the Crisis and Uncertainty about Future Inflation: Theory and Evidence for the Euro Area. In Monetary Policy and the Economy.
• Goldstein, N., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2022). Expectatıons Formatıon and Forward Informatıon. NBER Working Paper No. 29711. August 2000.
• Grauwe, P. De. (2009). Top-down versus bottom-up macroeconomics. VOXEU. https://voxeu.org/article/top-down-versus-bottom-macroeconomics
• Gürkaynak, R. S., & Tille, C. (2017). Introduction: Are DSGE models useful for policymakers? In R. S. Gürkaynak & C. Tille (Eds.), DSGE Models in the Conduct of Policy: Use as intended. CEPR Press.
• Guse, E. A. (2005). Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 29(10), 1623–1642.
• Hey, J. D. (1994). Expectations formation: Rational or adaptive or ...? Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 25(3), 329–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(94)90104-X
• Holden, S., & Driscoll, J. C. (2014). Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models. Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 133–147.
• Hommes, C. (2011). The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2010.10.003
• Jitmaneeroj, B., Lamla, M. J., & Wood, A. (2018). The implications of central bank transparency for uncertainty and disagreement. In KOF Working Papers (No. 445). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.10.002
• Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, 185, 1124–1231.
• Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291.
• Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). On the Psychology of Prediction. In Daniel & P. S. and A. T. Kahneman (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (pp. 48–68). Cambridge University Press.
• Kandel, E., & Pearson D., N. (1995). Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets. Journal of Political Economy, 103(4), 831–872.
• Kara, H., & Küçük-Tuǧer, H. (2010). Inflation expectations in Turkey: Learning to be rational. Applied Economics, 42(21), 2725–2742. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840801964559
• Kohn, D. L. (2006). Monetary policy and uncertainty. Fourth Conference of the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, 1–6.
• Krusell, P., & Smith, A. A. (1996). Rules of thumb in macroeconomic equilibrium a quantitative analysis. In Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (Vol. 20, Issue 4). https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(95)00863-2
• Lahırı, K., & Sheng, X. (2010). Measurıng Forecast Uncertaınty By Dısagreement: The Mıssıng Lınk. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25(4), 514–538.
• Laibson, D., & List, J. A. (2015). Principles of (behavioral) economics. American Economic Review, 105(5), 385–390. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20151047
• Lamla, M. J., & Maag, T. (2012). The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(7), 1325–1350. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00534.x
• Lłyziak, T. (2013). Formation of inflation expectations by different economic agents. Eastern European Economics, 51(6), 5–33. https://doi.org/10.2753/EEE0012-8775510601
• Madeira, C., & Zafar, B. (2015). Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(5), 867–896. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12230
• Mankiw, N. G., & Reis, R. (2002). Sticky information versus sticky prices: A proposal to replace the new Keynesian Phillips curve. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1295–1328. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302320935034
• Mankiw, N. G., & Reis, R. (2006). Pervasive Stickiness. American Economic Association, 96(2), 164–169. https://www.jstor.org/stable/30034634 Mankiw, N. G., Reis, R., & Wolfers, J. (2003). Disagreement about inflation expectations. In NBER Macroeconomics Annual (Vol. 18, Issue July). https://doi.org/10.1086/ma.18.3585256
• Menz, J.-O., & Poppitz, P. (2013). Households’ Disagreement on Inflation Expectations and Socioeconomic Media Exposure in Germany. In Discussion Paper (No. 27). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2796919
• Montes, G. C., Oliveira, L. V., Curi, A., & Nicolay, R. T. F. (2016). Effects of transparency, monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations. Applied Economics, 48(7), 590–607. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1083091
• Mullainathan, S., & Thaler, R. (2000). Behavioral Economics. NBER Working Paper No. 7948. October 2000.
• Muth, J. (1961). Rational Expectations and The Theory of Price Movements. Econometrica, 29(3), 315–335.
• Odria, L. R. M., & Rodriguez, G. (2013). Inflation expectations formation in the presence of policy shifts and structural breaks: An experimental analysis. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 44, 59–67.
• Olivier Basdevant. (2005). Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand. Economic Modelling, 22(6), 1074–1089.
• Ormeño, A., & Molnar, K. (2015). Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(4), 673–699.
• Orphanides, A., & Williams, J. C. (2003). Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy (No. 9884; NBER Working Paper Series).
• Pfajfar, D. (2013). Formation of rationally heterogeneous expectations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(8), 1434–1452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2013.03.012
• Pfajfar, D., & Santoro, E. (2008). Asymmetries in Inflation Expectations across Sociodemographic groups. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
• Pfajfar, D., & Santoro, E. (2010). Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 75(3), 426–444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2010.05.012
• Pfajfar, D., & Santoro, E. (2013). News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(6), 1045–1067.
• Pfajfar, D., & Žakelj, B. (2014). Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 44, 147–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.04.012
• Ranyard, R., Del Missier, F., Bonini, N., Duxbury, D., & Summers, B. (2008). Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework. Journal of Economic Psychology, 29(4), 378–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2008.07.002
• Reiche, L., & Meyler, A. (2022). Making Sense of Consumer Inflation Expectations: The Role of Uncertainty. In ECB Working Paper Series (No. 2642). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4036097
• Rich, R., & Tracy, J. (2009). The Relationship Among Expected Inflation, Disagreement, and Uncertatinty: Evidence from Matched Point and Density Forecasts. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1), 200–207.
• Roos, M. (2017). Behavioral and complexity macroeconomics. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 14(2), 186–199.
• Sarıkaya, S., & Afşar, K. E. (2022). Nöroiktisat Çerçevesinde İktisatta Multidisiplinerlik Mümkün mü? İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 37(3), 630–654.
• Sijabat, R. (2018). Understanding Behavioral Economics: A Narrative Perspective. Asian Development Policy Review, 6(2), 77–87. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.107.2018.62.77.87
• Siklos, P. L. (2013). Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: An international empirical investigation. Journal of International Economics, 90(1), 218–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.09.005
• Sill, K. (2012). Measuring Economic Uncertainty Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters. In Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Vol. Q4). www.philadelphiafed.org
• Sims, C. A. (2003). Implications of rational inattention. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(3), 665–690. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00029-1
• Sims, C. A. (2009). Inflation Expectations, Uncertatinty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy. In J. Fuhrer, Y. K. Kodrzycki, J. S. Little, & G. P. Olivei (Eds.), Understanding Inflation of the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective. MIT Press.
• Singh, G. K. (2020). Expectations formation of household inflation expectations in India (No. 2020-12–02; Research & Publications).
• Sorić, P., & Čižmešija, M. (2013). Price sentiment of Croatian consumers: The upward bias of collective memories. Drustvena Istrazivanja, 22(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.5559/di.22.1.01
• Wakker, P., & Tversky, A. (1993). An axiomatization of cumulative prospect theory. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 7(2), 147–175. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01065812
• Weber, C. E. (2002). Intertemporal non-separability and ‘“ rule of thumb ”’ consumption. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 293–308.
• Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and Prices. In The Return of Monetary Policy Rules (pp. 1–58). Princeton University Press.
• Yiğit, A. G. (2018). Davranışsal İktisadın Anlaşılmasına Yönelik Bir Literatür Taraması. Mcbü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16(2).