The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Workforce Displacement and Transformation in the Logistics Sector: The Case of Türkiye
Abstract
The rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies into the logistics sector is triggering a radical transformation process in the sector, particularly by replacing human labor through automation in operational tasks that require routine and medium skills. This study empirically examines the dual dynamics of workforce displacement and transformation in the Turkish logistics sector, focusing on the period 2015–2025. The main hypothesis of the study is that the use of AI deepens the productivity-employment paradox, encourages skill-based wage increases, and contributes to persistent labor market inequalities. Longitudinal labor market data disaggregated by gender and occupational groups were used in the analysis process, and four key employment indicators were evaluated through descriptive statistics and trend analyses: informal employment, unemployment rates, wage increases, and output per worker (productivity). The findings reveal a structural decrease in informal employment rates (e.g., a decrease from $27.6 in 2019 to $19.2 in 2023); However, it shows that productivity gains remain limited during periods of AI-intensive applications, and structural unemployment persists. Wage increases are observed to be concentrated in technical and AI-complementary roles, which are predominantly male-dominated. The most striking finding is that AI-enabled digital innovations have not translated into inclusive employment growth, as high unemployment rates persist and gender wage gaps widen. These results support the "productivity-employment paradox" and the skills-based technological change (SBTC) thesis. The study points to the urgency of reskilling strategies for low- and medium-skilled workers and emphasizes the need for equity-based policy initiatives to prevent the digital transformation process from reproducing socioeconomic inequalities.
Keywords
Artificial Intelligence (AI), Logistics Sector Employment, Workforce Displacement, Skill-Biased Technological Change (SBTC), Job Transformation, Wage Inequality
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