The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Workforce Displacement and Transformation in the Logistics Sector: The Case of Türkiye

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 5, 2123 - 2149, 31.12.2025

Mustafa Ergün

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1729015

Öz

The rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies into the logistics sector is triggering a radical transformation process in the sector, particularly by replacing human labor through automation in operational tasks that require routine and medium skills. This study empirically examines the dual dynamics of workforce displacement and transformation in the Turkish logistics sector, focusing on the period 2015–2025. The main hypothesis of the study is that the use of AI deepens the productivity-employment paradox, encourages skill-based wage increases, and contributes to persistent labor market inequalities. Longitudinal labor market data disaggregated by gender and occupational groups were used in the analysis process, and four key employment indicators were evaluated through descriptive statistics and trend analyses: informal employment, unemployment rates, wage increases, and output per worker (productivity). The findings reveal a structural decrease in informal employment rates (e.g., a decrease from $27.6 in 2019 to $19.2 in 2023); However, it shows that productivity gains remain limited during periods of AI-intensive applications, and structural unemployment persists. Wage increases are observed to be concentrated in technical and AI-complementary roles, which are predominantly male-dominated. The most striking finding is that AI-enabled digital innovations have not translated into inclusive employment growth, as high unemployment rates persist and gender wage gaps widen. These results support the "productivity-employment paradox" and the skills-based technological change (SBTC) thesis. The study points to the urgency of reskilling strategies for low- and medium-skilled workers and emphasizes the need for equity-based policy initiatives to prevent the digital transformation process from reproducing socioeconomic inequalities.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Artificial Intelligence (AI) , Logistics Sector Employment , Workforce Displacement , Skill-Biased Technological Change (SBTC) , Job Transformation , Wage Inequality

Lojistik Sektöründe İşgücü Yer Değişimi ve Dönüşümüne Yapay Zeka’nın Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Yapay zekâ (YZ) teknolojilerinin lojistik sektörüne hızla entegre edilmesi, özellikle rutin, orta beceri gerektiren operasyonel görevlerde otomasyona dayalı insan emeğinin yer değiştirmesine yol açan radikal bir dönüşüme yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin lojistik sektöründe 2015-2025 döneminde işgücü yer değiştirmesi ve dönüşümünün ikili dinamiklerini ampirik olarak incelemektedir. Özellikle, YZ kullanımının verimlilik-istihdam paradoksuna, beceriye dayalı ücret artışlarına ve kalıcı işgücü piyasası eşitsizliklerine katkıda bulunduğu hipotezi test edilmiştir. Analiz, cinsiyet ve mesleğe göre ayrıştırılmış uzunlamasına işgücü piyasası verilerini kullanarak, tanımlayıcı istatistikler ve trend analizi yoluyla dört temel istihdam göstergesini değerlendirmektedir: gayriresmî istihdam, işsizlik oranları, ücret artışları ve çalışan başına çıktı (üretkenlik). Bulgular, kayıt dışı istihdam oranında yapısal bir düşüş olduğunu (örneğin, 2019'da 27,6 dolardan 2023'te 19,2 dolara) ortaya koymaktadır; ancak yapay zekâ yoğun uygulamaların gözlemlendiği yıllarda sınırlı üretkenlik kazanımlarının yanı sıra kalıcı yapısal işsizliği de göstermektedir. Ücret artışları, erkeklerin egemen olduğu teknik ve yapay zekâyı tamamlayıcı rollerde yoğunlaşmaktadır. En önemlisi, yüksek işsizliğin devam etmesi ve cinsiyetler arası ücret farkının giderek artması, yapay zekâ destekli dijital yeniliklerin kapsayıcı istihdam büyümesine dönüşmediğini doğrulamaktadır. Bu sonuçlar "üretkenlik-istihdam paradoksu"nu desteklemekte ve beceri odaklı teknolojik değişim (SBTC) tezini desteklemektedir. Çalışma, düşük ve orta düzey beceriye sahip çalışanlar için yeniden beceri kazandırma stratejilerinin aciliyetini ve dijital dönüşümün sosyoekonomik eşitsizlikleri yeniden üretmemesini sağlamak için eşitlik temelli politika girişimlerine olan ihtiyacı vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yapay Zeka (YZ) , Lojistik Sektörü İstihdamı , İşgücü Kaybı , Beceri Önyargılı Teknolojik Değişim (BÖTD) , İş Dönüşümü , Ücret Eşitsizliği

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