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Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Dengesinde J-Eğrisi Etkisi

Year 2016, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 389 - 402, 08.04.2016
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.16089

Abstract

J-Eğrisi teorisine göre döviz kurlarında meydana gelen bir artış, kısa dönemde dış ticaret açığını
arttırmakta sonrasında ise azaltmaktadır. Bu konu ile ilgili birçok çalışma yapılmış olmasına
rağmen makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki asimetrik ilişkiler çoğunlukla göz ardı
edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin dış ticaret dengesi simetrik ve asimetrik modeller ile analiz
edilmiştir. Bu amaçla aylık ve üçer aylık verilerin kullanıldığı iki model oluşturulmuştur. Üçer
aylık verilere dayalı analiz sonucuna göre değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi ve J-eğrisi
varlığına rastlanmamıştır. Ancak aylık veriler ile oluşturulan model sonuçlarına göre, kısa
dönemde simetrik, uzun vadede ise asimetrik bir ilişki ve eşbütünleşme mevcuttur. Hem üç aylık
verilerle hem de aylık verilerle yapılan tahminlerde ise J-Eğrisi etkisi gözlemlenmemiştir. Sonuç
olarak sadece kısa dönemde geçerli olması beklenilen J-eğrisi için aylık verilerin kullanılması
daha sağlıklı sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır.

References

  • Akbostanci, E. (2004). Dynamics of the trade balance: the Turkish J- curve. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40(5), 57–73. http://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2004.11052584
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Zhang, R. (2014). Is there J-Curve effect in the commodity trade between Korea and rest of the world? Economic Change and Restructuring, 47(3), 227–250. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-013-9148-5
  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J., & Mestre, R. (1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of time series analysis, 19(3), 267–283. http://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00091
  • Batool, S. A., Memood, T., & Jadoon, A. K. (2015). What determines balance of payments: A case of Pakistan. Sukkur IBA Journal of Management and Business, 2(1), 47–70.
  • Boyd, D., Caporale, G. M., & Smith, R. (2001). Real exchange rate effects on the balance of trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner condition. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6(3), 187–200. http://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.157
  • Chen, L. L., & Devereux, J. (1994). Import prices, export prices and the current account. Economics Letters, 44(4), 415–420. http://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(94)90114-7
  • Demirden, T., & Pastine, I. (1995). Flexible exchange rates and the J-curve: An alternative approach. Economics Letters, 48(3-4), 373–377. http://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(94)00634-E
  • Duasa, J. (2009). Asymmetric cointegration relationship between real exchange rate and trade variables: The case of Malaysia (MPRA No. 14535).
  • Durmaz, N. (2015). Industry level J -curve in Turkey. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(4), 689–706. http://doi.org/10.1108/JES-08-2013-0122
  • Halicioglu, F. (2008). The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model. Applied Economics, 40(18), 2423–2429. http://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600949496
  • Holmes, M. J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2009). Cointegration and asymmetric adjustment: Some new evidence concerning the behavior of the U.S. current account. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 9(1). http://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1665
  • Jamilov, R. (2013). J-Curve dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan. Transition Studies Review, 19(3), 313–323. http://doi.org/10.1007/s11300-012-0240-8
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk Daniel Kahneman; Amos Tversky. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1536-7150.2011.00774.x
  • Kale, P. (2001). Turkey’s trade balance in the short and the long run: Error correction modeling and cointegration. The International Trade Journal, 15(1), 27–56. http://doi.org/10.1080/088539001300005440
  • Karagöz, M., & Doğan, Ç. (2005). Döviz kuru dış ticaret ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(2), 219–228.
  • Karamelikli, H. (2016). Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of the Turkish Trade Balance. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(2), 70–80. http://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n2p70
  • Keynes, J. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. London: Macmiillan. Tarihinde adresinden erişildi http://cas.umkc.edu/economics/people/facultyPages/kregel/courses/econ645/Winter2011/GeneralTheory.pdf
  • Lal, A. K., & Lowinger, T. C. (2002). The J-Curve: Evidence from East Asia. Journal of Economic Integration, 17(June), 397–415.
  • Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency contracts, pass-through, and devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 4(1).
  • Mahdavi, S. (2000). Do German, Japanese, and U.S. export prices asymmetrically respond to exchange rate changes? Evidence from aggregate data. Contemporary Economic Policy, 18(1), 70–81. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.2000.tb00007.x
  • Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, S. (2004). The J-Curve: Evidence from Fiji. International Review of Applied Economics, 18(3), 369–380. http://doi.org/10.1080/0269217042000227088
  • Onafowora, O. (2003). Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: Is there a J−curve ? Economics Bulletin, 5(18), 1–33.
  • Peker, O. (2008). Reel döviz kurunun ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(2).
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. http://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Rose, A. K. (1990). Exchange rates and the trade balance: Some evidence from developing countries. Economics Letters, 34(3), 271–275. http://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(90)90130-S
  • Rose, A. K., & Yellen, J. L. (1989). Is there a J-curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), 53–68.
  • Schorderet, Y. (2002). A nonlinear generalization of cointegration: A note on hidden cointegration (No. 2002.03). Genève. Tarihinde adresinden erişildi http://www.unige.ch/ses/metri/
  • Schorderet, Y. (2003). Asymmetric cointegration (No. 2003.01). Cahiers du département d’économétrie, Faculté des sciences économiques et sociales, Université de Genève.
  • Shiller, R. J. (1993). Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society’s Largest Economic Risks. Clarendon Press.
  • Shiller, R. J. (2005). Irrational Exuberance (2nd Editio). Princeton University Press.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. Içinde R. C. Sickles & W. C. Horrace (Ed.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt Econometric Methods and Applications (ss. 281–314). http://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3
  • Vergil, H., & Erdoğan, S. (2009). Döviz kuru-ticaret dengesi ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5(9), 16–17.
  • Wilson, P., & Tat, K. C. (2001). Exchange rates and the trade balance: The case of Singapore 1970 to 1996. Journal of Asian Economics, 12(1), 47–63. http://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(01)00072-0
  • Yamak, R., & Korkmaz, A. (2005). Reel döviz kuru ve diş ticaret dengesi ilişkisi. İstanbul Üniversitesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 1(2), 16–17.
  • Yazici, M., & Ahmad Klasra, M. (2010). Import-content of exports and J-curve effect. Applied Economics, 42(6), 769–776. http://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701720846
Year 2016, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 389 - 402, 08.04.2016
https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.16089

Abstract

References

  • Akbostanci, E. (2004). Dynamics of the trade balance: the Turkish J- curve. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40(5), 57–73. http://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2004.11052584
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Zhang, R. (2014). Is there J-Curve effect in the commodity trade between Korea and rest of the world? Economic Change and Restructuring, 47(3), 227–250. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-013-9148-5
  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J., & Mestre, R. (1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of time series analysis, 19(3), 267–283. http://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00091
  • Batool, S. A., Memood, T., & Jadoon, A. K. (2015). What determines balance of payments: A case of Pakistan. Sukkur IBA Journal of Management and Business, 2(1), 47–70.
  • Boyd, D., Caporale, G. M., & Smith, R. (2001). Real exchange rate effects on the balance of trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner condition. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6(3), 187–200. http://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.157
  • Chen, L. L., & Devereux, J. (1994). Import prices, export prices and the current account. Economics Letters, 44(4), 415–420. http://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(94)90114-7
  • Demirden, T., & Pastine, I. (1995). Flexible exchange rates and the J-curve: An alternative approach. Economics Letters, 48(3-4), 373–377. http://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(94)00634-E
  • Duasa, J. (2009). Asymmetric cointegration relationship between real exchange rate and trade variables: The case of Malaysia (MPRA No. 14535).
  • Durmaz, N. (2015). Industry level J -curve in Turkey. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(4), 689–706. http://doi.org/10.1108/JES-08-2013-0122
  • Halicioglu, F. (2008). The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model. Applied Economics, 40(18), 2423–2429. http://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600949496
  • Holmes, M. J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2009). Cointegration and asymmetric adjustment: Some new evidence concerning the behavior of the U.S. current account. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 9(1). http://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1665
  • Jamilov, R. (2013). J-Curve dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan. Transition Studies Review, 19(3), 313–323. http://doi.org/10.1007/s11300-012-0240-8
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk Daniel Kahneman; Amos Tversky. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1536-7150.2011.00774.x
  • Kale, P. (2001). Turkey’s trade balance in the short and the long run: Error correction modeling and cointegration. The International Trade Journal, 15(1), 27–56. http://doi.org/10.1080/088539001300005440
  • Karagöz, M., & Doğan, Ç. (2005). Döviz kuru dış ticaret ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(2), 219–228.
  • Karamelikli, H. (2016). Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of the Turkish Trade Balance. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(2), 70–80. http://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n2p70
  • Keynes, J. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. London: Macmiillan. Tarihinde adresinden erişildi http://cas.umkc.edu/economics/people/facultyPages/kregel/courses/econ645/Winter2011/GeneralTheory.pdf
  • Lal, A. K., & Lowinger, T. C. (2002). The J-Curve: Evidence from East Asia. Journal of Economic Integration, 17(June), 397–415.
  • Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency contracts, pass-through, and devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 4(1).
  • Mahdavi, S. (2000). Do German, Japanese, and U.S. export prices asymmetrically respond to exchange rate changes? Evidence from aggregate data. Contemporary Economic Policy, 18(1), 70–81. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.2000.tb00007.x
  • Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, S. (2004). The J-Curve: Evidence from Fiji. International Review of Applied Economics, 18(3), 369–380. http://doi.org/10.1080/0269217042000227088
  • Onafowora, O. (2003). Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: Is there a J−curve ? Economics Bulletin, 5(18), 1–33.
  • Peker, O. (2008). Reel döviz kurunun ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(2).
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. http://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Rose, A. K. (1990). Exchange rates and the trade balance: Some evidence from developing countries. Economics Letters, 34(3), 271–275. http://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(90)90130-S
  • Rose, A. K., & Yellen, J. L. (1989). Is there a J-curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), 53–68.
  • Schorderet, Y. (2002). A nonlinear generalization of cointegration: A note on hidden cointegration (No. 2002.03). Genève. Tarihinde adresinden erişildi http://www.unige.ch/ses/metri/
  • Schorderet, Y. (2003). Asymmetric cointegration (No. 2003.01). Cahiers du département d’économétrie, Faculté des sciences économiques et sociales, Université de Genève.
  • Shiller, R. J. (1993). Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society’s Largest Economic Risks. Clarendon Press.
  • Shiller, R. J. (2005). Irrational Exuberance (2nd Editio). Princeton University Press.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. Içinde R. C. Sickles & W. C. Horrace (Ed.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt Econometric Methods and Applications (ss. 281–314). http://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3
  • Vergil, H., & Erdoğan, S. (2009). Döviz kuru-ticaret dengesi ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5(9), 16–17.
  • Wilson, P., & Tat, K. C. (2001). Exchange rates and the trade balance: The case of Singapore 1970 to 1996. Journal of Asian Economics, 12(1), 47–63. http://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(01)00072-0
  • Yamak, R., & Korkmaz, A. (2005). Reel döviz kuru ve diş ticaret dengesi ilişkisi. İstanbul Üniversitesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 1(2), 16–17.
  • Yazici, M., & Ahmad Klasra, M. (2010). Import-content of exports and J-curve effect. Applied Economics, 42(6), 769–776. http://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701720846
There are 35 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Hüseyin Karamelikli This is me

Publication Date April 8, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 5 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Karamelikli, H. (2016). Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Dengesinde J-Eğrisi Etkisi. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 389-402. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.16089

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