Abstract
Döngüsel
işsizlik, ülkelerdeki yüksek işsizliğin nedenidir. Döngüsel işsizliğin
temelinde de talep daralması vardır. Literatür incelemesi sırasında döngüsel
işsizlik ve toplam talep arasında ilişkiyi araştıran çalışmaların olmadığı
kanaatine varılmıştır. Çalışmada 2005(I)-2017(I) dönemi için 3 aylık işgücü, hanehalkları
tüketimi, devletin yaptığı tüketim harcamaları ve gayrisafi sabit
sermaye oluşumu verileri kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler, ADF birim kök
testine tabi tutulmuş ve döngüsel işsizlik ile yatırım harcamaları
değişkenlerinin ikinci farkında durağan olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu durum,
koentegrasyona bakmadan nedensellik analizi yapmayı gerektirmiştir. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye’de
döngüsel işsizliğin nedeninin, talep daralması olmadığı aksine talep
daralmasını oluşturan faktörlerden bir tanesinin döngüsel işsizlik olduğu
tespit edilmiştir.
Keywords
Döngüsel İşsizlik Talep Daralması Tüketim Harcamaları Gayr-i Safi Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik
References
- Abraham, Katharine G., Katz, Lawrence. F., ‘Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?’ Journal of Political Economy, 94, 3(1), (1986): 507-522.
- Amado, Kimberly., ‘What Is Cyclical Unemployment?’, (18.08.2017) https://www.thebalance.com/cyclical-unemployment-3305520
- Blanchard, Oliver Jean, Quah, Danny, 'The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand Disturbances', American Economnic Review, 79, (1989): 655-673.
Abstract
Cyclical unemployment is
generally seen as main factor behind high unemployment rate in many countries.
Decrease in demand underlies cyclical unemployment. Demand decrease lowers
production revenues.During the literature review it has been concluded
that there is a dearth of studies dealing with the relationship between
cyclical unemployment and aggregate demand. This study is expected to make
a significant contribution to the literature. In the present study, data gathered in the
period between 2005 (I) and 2007 (I) regarding quarterly labor force, household
consumption, government consumption expenditures and gross fixed capital
formation are examined. The variables were subjected to the ADF unit root test
and it was found that the cyclical unemployment and investment expenditure
variables were stationary at the second difference. This finding necessitated
an analysis of causality disregarding
cointegration. It has been ascertained that the cause of the cyclical
unemployment in Turkey is not demand decrease;
yet conversely one of the factors in demand decrease is the cyclical
unemployment.
Keywords
Cyclical Unemployment Demand Decrease Consumption Expenditures Gross Fixed Capital Formation Toda-Yamamoto Causality
References
- Abraham, Katharine G., Katz, Lawrence. F., ‘Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?’ Journal of Political Economy, 94, 3(1), (1986): 507-522.
- Amado, Kimberly., ‘What Is Cyclical Unemployment?’, (18.08.2017) https://www.thebalance.com/cyclical-unemployment-3305520
- Blanchard, Oliver Jean, Quah, Danny, 'The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand Disturbances', American Economnic Review, 79, (1989): 655-673.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | March 11, 2018 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2018 Volume: 7 Issue: 1 |
