Determining Pandemic Vulnerability Levels of Cities Using the Factor Analysis Method

Year 2022, , 193 - 205, 08.07.2022

Cem Kırlangıçoğlu

https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2022-1057248

Abstract

Pandemics have reentered our lives with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and the outbreak has affected all humanity on a global scale. Just as some countries in the world are more affected by this pandemic than others, although the number of cases and deaths is critically high in some cities in Turkey, others cities are less affected. This study aims to measure Turkish cities vulnerability levels to the pandemic based on variables that are likely to be influence a difference in the number of cases that emerge. A literature survey shows that similar studies in Turkey in particular are generally built on just one of the social, economic, and spatial vulnerability indices. No holistic approach has been found that combines all the relevant factors. This study uses 35 different variables gathered under the indicators of population, demography, urban life, economy, climate, environment and health, as identified at the end of the literature review. As a result, each city’s Pandemic Vulnerability Index score was calculated using factor analysis, and a hierarchical ranking was carried out among Turkish cities going from the most to the least vulnerable.

Keywords

Pandemic, COVID-19, Vulnerability, Factor analysis, Geographic information systems

Şehirlerin Pandemik Kırılganlık Seviyelerinin Faktör Analizi Yöntemiyle Belirlenmesi

Abstract

Yeni Koronavirüs Hastalığı (Covid-19) ile beraber pandemi kavramı yeniden hayatımıza girmiş, küresel ölçekteki salgın tüm insanlığı etkisi altına almıştır. Dünya’da bazı ülkelerin bu salgından daha fazla etkilenip diğerlerinin daha az zarar gördüğü gibi, Türkiye’de de bazı şehirlerde vaka ve vefat sayıları kritik derecede yüksek olmasına rağmen diğerleri daha az etkilenmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, vaka sayılarındaki farklılıkların ortaya çıkmasında etkili olması muhtemel değişkenlerden yola çıkarak şehirlerimizin pandemiye karşı kırılganlık seviyelerini ölçmektir. Kırılganlık seviyesi yüksek olan illerimiz belirlenip bu bölgelere öncelik verildiğinde ve kırılganlığa yol açan sebepler tespit edilip gerekli çözümler üretilmeye başlandığında, şehirlerin salgına karşı direncinin artacağı ve vaka sayılarının azalmasına katkı sağlanacağı düşünülmektedir. Literatürde ve özellikle Türkiye’de gerçekleştirilen benzer çalışmaların genel olarak sosyal, ekonomik ve mekânsal kırılganlık indekslerinden biri üzerine kurgulandığı görülmüş, ilgili tüm faktörleri bir araya getiren bütüncül bir yaklaşıma rastlanmamıştır. Bu çalışmada literatür taraması neticesinde belirlenen ve nüfus, demografi, kentsel yaşam, ekonomi, iklim, çevre ve sağlık altyapısı göstergeleri altında toplanan 35 farklı değişken kullanılmış, faktör analizi yöntemiyle her şehrin Pandemik Kırılganlık İndeksi puanı hesaplanarak en kırılgan illerden en az kırılgan olanlara doğru indirgenen hiyerarşik bir sıralama gerçekleştirilmiştir. 

Keywords

Pandemi, Covid-19, Kırılganlık, Faktör analizi, Coğrafi bilgi sistemleri

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