Periodic Changes of Temperature Extremes at Some Selected Stations in Turkiye (1970-2018)

Year 2022, , 69 - 83, 30.12.2022

Dilek Aykır , İbrahim Atalay , Mücahit Coşkun

https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2022-1094298

Abstract

Understanding the long-term variations of extreme temperature events is important for detecting and understanding the characteristics of climate change. However, it is not clear to what degree urbanization impacts climate change. In the study, station pairs were created by selecting 42 stations that recorded data between 1970-2018 to reflect the climate characteristics seen in Turkey. The changes of the selected climate indices in these station pairs in the hot (April-September) and cold (October-March) periods were examined by taking into account the observations covering the years 1970-2018. This study utilized the RClimDex program and Mann Kendall trend analysis technique. The RClimDex program was used to generate 27 climate indices. The information derived from the indices not only demonstrates how the mean value changes over time, rather, it; also contains information about how the statistical distribution of the data has changed. In addition, the results provide crucial information about the trends of extremes. In the study, 4 indices related to temperature (Diurnal Temperature Range, Cool Nights, Warm Nights, Minimum of Minimum) were selected and examined. When the changes in the climate indices of the selected stations in the hot and cold periods are examined, it is observed that the change in the hot period is more pronounced than the change in the cold period. According to Mann Kendall trend analysis, most of the trends are statistically significant at the 95% level in all station pairs examined. Results of the trend analysis show that the fastest tendency to increase occur in stations located in the Black Sea, Aegean and Mediterranean coastal zones where the moisture content in the air is higher. This finding points to the positive feedback mechanism created by the increased moisture content in atmosphere through global climate change.

Keywords

Extreme Temperature, Climate Indices, Climate Change, Turkey., Mann-Kendall, Trend

Türkiye’de Seçilen Bazı Istasyonlarda Sıcaklık Ekstremlerinin Dönemsel Değişimleri, 1970-2018

Abstract

Ekstrem sıcaklık olaylarının uzun süreli değişimlerini anlamak, iklim değişikliğinin tespiti ve özelliklerinin anlaşılması için önemlidir. Bununla birlikte şehirleşmeden ne kadar etkinin geldiği açık değildir. Bu çalışmada şehir özelliğine sahip 21 istasyon ile kırsal özelliğe sahip 21 istasyon seçilmiştir. Nüfusu 100 binin altında olan yerler kırsal olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki 1970-2018 yılları arasında 42 meteoroloji istasyonu için şehir ve kır istasyon çiftleri oluşturulmuştur. Bu istasyon çiftlerinde seçilen iklim indislerinin sıcak ve soğuk dönemdeki değişimleri,1970-2018 yılları arasını kapsayan rasatları dikkate alınarak incelenmiştir. Bu inceleme için RClimDex programı ve Mann Kendall trend analizi tekniği kullanılmıştır. RClimDex programı 27 adet iklim indisi üretmektir. İndislerden türetilmiş bilgi yalnızca ortalama değerin zaman içinde nasıl değiştiğini değil; aynı zamanda verinin istatistiksel dağılımının nasıl değiştiği konusunda da bilgi içerir. Ayrıca sonuçlar ekstremlerin trendleri hakkında çok önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır. Çalışmada sıcaklık ile ilgili olan 4 indis seçilerek incelenmiştir. Seçilen istasyonların iklim indislerinin sıcak ve soğuk dönemdeki değişimleri incelendiğinde sıcak dönemdeki değişimin, soğuk döneme göre, şehir istasyonlarında kır istasyonlarına göre değişimin daha daha belirgin olduğu gözlenmiştir. Mann Kendall trend analizine göre incelenen tüm istasyon çiftlerinde Trendlerin çoğu %5 seviyesinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Trend analizinin sonuçları istasyonlarda en hızlı artış eğiliminin havadaki nem içeriğinin daha yüksek olduğu Karadeniz, Ege ve Akdeniz kıyı kuşağında yer alan istasyonlarda gerçekleştiğini göstermektedir. Bu durum küresel iklim değişimi ile birlikte atmosferde artan nem içeriğinin oluşturduğu pozitif geri besleme mekanizmasını düşündürmektedir.

Keywords

Ekstrem Sıcaklık, İklim İndisleri, İklim Değişimi, Mann-Kendall, Trend, Türkiye

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