A New Approach to the Fine Kinney Method with AHP Based ELECTRE I and Math Model on Risk Assessment for Natural Disasters

Year 2021, Issue: 42, 155 - 164, 07.07.2021

Onur Derse

Abstract

Natural disasters impose enormous risks on human living and the environment. Researchers have given more attention to evaluating these risks in the context of disasters. Studies focus on the risk assessment of only one of the natural disasters for the regions. However, a risk assessment should be conducted that includes all-natural disasters for these regions. This risk assessment is dealt with by 8 different provinces in the Aegean region of Turkey in the work. A case data (1990-2020) on natural disasters such as earthquake, fire, landslide, flood, storm/typhoon has been considered for the cities covered. By revising the Fine Kinney risk assessment method for natural disasters, a risk score is obtained for each province. Then, the AHP based ELECTRE I method is applied to these provinces. As a result of this method, the riskiest region is obtained. The location of a crisis center in the riskiest region obtained should ensure effective solutions to the regions which are affected by the results of the disasters. Thus, the problem of choosing the most suitable location in the crisis center is handled with a goal programming approach.

Keywords

Risk Assessment, Mathematical Modelling, Natural Disasters

Doğal Afetler için AHP Tabanlı ELECTRE I ve Matematik Model ile Risk Değerlendirmesine Ilişkin Fine Kinney Yöntemine Yeni Bir Yaklaşım

Abstract

Doğal afetler insan yaşamı ve çevre üzerinde çok büyük riskler oluşturur. Araştırmacılar bu riskleri afetler bağlamında değerlendirmeye daha fazla önem verdiler. Çalışmalar, bölgelerdeki doğal afetlerden yalnızca birinin risk değerlendirmesine odaklanmaktadır. Ancak bu bölgeler için tamamen doğal afetleri içeren bir risk değerlendirmesi yapılmalıdır. Bu çalışmada, risk değerlendirmesi olarak Türkiye'nin Ege bölgesindeki 8 farklı ilde ele alınmıştır. Kapsanan şehirler için deprem, yangın, heyelan, sel, fırtına / tayfun gibi doğal afetler hakkında bir vaka verisi (1990-2020) dikkate alınmıştır. Doğal afetler için Fine Kinney risk değerlendirme yöntemi revize edilerek, her il için bir risk puanı elde edilmektedir. Daha sonra bu illere AHP tabanlı ELECTRE I yöntemi uygulanır. Bu yöntem sonucunda en riskli bölge elde edilir. Elde edilen en riskli bölgede bir kriz merkezinin konumu, afet sonuçlarından etkilenen bölgelere etkin çözümler getirmelidir. Böylelikle kriz merkezinde en uygun lokasyonu seçme sorunu hedef programlama yaklaşımıyla ele alınmaktadır.

Keywords

Risk Değerlendirme, Matematik Modelleme, Doğal Afetler

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