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Fertility, Migration, and Spatial Interaction in Turkey: An Analysis under the Selectivity Hypothesis

Year 2021, Issue: 43, 111 - 125, 06.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2021-893270

Abstract

Migration is a process of displacement, and it affects societies socially, economically, and structurally. This study gauges the impact of migration on fertility in Turkey. The evaluation is conducted in consideration of the selectivity hypothesis based on the Robust Poisson model. The data obtained from the 2013 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey were analyzed for this purpose. Not considering the role of social norms and one’s neighborhood relations while evaluating the relationship between variables prevents a holistic perspective; thus, the aspect of spatial interaction is taken into account in this study. The findings suggest that the variables that tend to significantly affect the fertility behaviors of women do not have an impact on the fertility behaviors of women having migrated from urban to rural areas. While variables such as age, education, employment status and household welfare have a significant effect on the fertility behaviors of women who migrated from rural areas to the cities as well as women residing in cities, the effect of these variables on fertility in rural areas is much higher. In this context, the study unveils a spatial relationship between migration and fertility in Turkey and, thus, invalidates the selectivity hypothesis.

References

  • Adsera, A., & Ferrer, A. (2011). Age at migration, language and fertility patterns among migrants to Canada. Discussion Paper Series(5552). google scholar
  • Akça, H. ve Ela, M. (2012). Türkiye’de eğitim, doğurganlık ve işsizlik ilişkisinin analizi. Maliye Dergisi, (163), 223-242. google scholar
  • AnseIin, L. (1988). Spatial econometrics: Methods and models. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. google scholar
  • Anselin, L., & Bera, A. K. (1998). Spatial dependence in linear regression models with an introduction to spatial econometrics. in Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics (pp. 237-289). New York: CRC Press. google scholar
  • Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. Demographic and economic change in developed countries. in Demographic and economic change in developed countries, Universities-Natıonal Bureau Committee for Economıc Research, (pp.209-240). ISBN: 0-87014-302-6: Columbıa Unıversıty Press. google scholar
  • Becker, G. S., & Lewis, H. G. (1973). Interaction between quantity and quality of children. Journal of PoliticalEconomy, 2(81), 279-288. google scholar
  • Becker, G. S., & Barro, R. J. (1988). A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility. The Quarterly Journal ofEconomics, 103(1), 1-25. google scholar
  • Darmofal, D. (2006). Spatial econometrics and political science. Annual Meeting of Southern Political Science Association. google scholar
  • De Tray, Dennis. N. (1973). Child quality and the demand for children. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2):70-95, Part 2: New Economic Approaches to Fertility, Published By: The University of Chicago Press. google scholar
  • Deliktaş, E., Usta, S., Bozkurt, S. ve Helvacı, B. (2008). Türkiye’de kentlerde doğurganlık hızını etkileyen faktörler: Path analizi yaklaşımı. Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 2(8), 877-895. google scholar
  • Dreze, J., & Murthi, M. (2000). Fertility, education and development. Discussion Paper No. DEDPS 20. google scholar
  • Elhorst, J. P. (2014). Spatial econometrics: From cross-sectional data to spatial panels, ISBN: 978-3-642-40339-2, Springer, London. google scholar
  • Emirhan, P. N. (2015). Göreli yoksunluk ve bölgeler arası göçler: Türkiye örneği. Business and Economics Research Journal, 6(2), 79-89. google scholar
  • Engelhardt, H. & Prskawetzz, A. (2002). On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time. Working papers of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 1-38. google scholar
  • Farber, S. C., & Lee, B. S. (1984). Fertility adaptation of rural-to-urban migrant women: A method of estimation applied to Korean women. Demography, 21(3), 339-345. google scholar
  • Gerkman, L. (2010). Topics in spatial econometrics-With applications to house prices (Doctoral dissertation). Nr: 219, Helsingfors google scholar
  • Getis, A., & Ord, J. K. (2008). The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics. Advances in Spatial Science, 127-145. google scholar
  • Goldstein, S. (1973). Interrelations between migration and fertility in Thailand. Demography, 10(2), 225-241. google scholar
  • Goldstein, S., & Goldstein, A. (1981). The Impact of migration on fertility:an ‘own children’ analysis for Thailand. Population Studies: A Journal ofDemography, 35(2), 265-284. google scholar
  • Gumprecht, D. (2005). Spatial methods in econometrics: An application to R&D spillovers. Department of Statistics and Mathematics Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien Research Report Series, Report 26, https://epub.wu.ac.at/290/1/document.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 04.12.2019). google scholar
  • Güneri, Ö. İ. ve Durmuş, B. (2020). Aşırı ya da eksik yayılım durumunda poisson ve negatif binom regresyon modellerinin karşılaştırılması. Uluslararası Doğu Anadolu Fen Mühendislik ve Tasarım Dergisi, 2(1), 48-66. google scholar
  • Hepple, L. W. (1998). Exact testing for spatial autocorrelation among regression residuals. Environment and Planning A(30), 85-108. google scholar
  • Hervitz, H. M. (1985). Selectivity, adaptation, or disruption? A comparison of alternative hypotheses on theeffects of migration on fertility: The case of Brazil. The International Migration Review, 19(2), 293-317. google scholar
  • Hiday, V. A. (1978). Migration, urbanization, and fertility in the Philippines. International Migration Review, 12(3), 370-385. google scholar
  • Jensen, E. R., & Ahlburg, D. A. (2004). Why does migration decrease fertility? Evidence from the Philippines. Population Studies, 58(2), 219-231. google scholar
  • Kahn, J. R. (1988). Immigrant selectivity and fertility adaptation in the United States. Social Forces, 67(1), 108-128. google scholar
  • Kalkınma Bakanlığı. (2013). Onuncu kalkınma planı (2014-2018). https://www.ahika.gov.tr/assets/upload/dosyalar/onuncu-kalkinma-plani.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 15.11.2020). google scholar
  • Kravdal, O., & Rindfuss, R. R. (2008). Changing relationships between education and fertility: A study of women and men born 1940 to 1964. American Sociological Review, 73(5), 854-873. google scholar
  • Kulu, H. (2005). Migration and Fertility: Competing Hypotheses Re-examined. European Journal ofPopulation, 21, 51-87. google scholar
  • Lee, B. S., & Farber, S. C. (1984). Fertility Adaptation by Rural-Urban Migrants in Developing Countries: The Case of Korea. Population Studies, 38 (1), 141-155. google scholar
  • Liang, Y., Yi, Y., & Sun, Q. (2013). The Impact of migration on fertility under China’s underlying restrictions: A comparative study between permanent and temporary migrants. Social Indicators Research, 1(116), 307-326. google scholar
  • Long, L. H. (1970). The Fertility of migrants to and within North America. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 48(3), 297-316. google scholar
  • Long, J. (1997). Regression models for categorical and limited dependent variables. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA. google scholar
  • Macisco, J. J., Bouvier, F. L., & Renzi, M. J. (1969). Migration Status, education and fertility in Puerto Rico, 1960. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 47(2), 167-186. google scholar
  • Miller, J. E., Trussell, J., Pebley, A. R., & Vaughan, B. (1992). Birth spacing and child mortality in Bangladesh and the Philippines. Demography, 29(2), 305-318. google scholar
  • Mineau, G. P., Bean, L. L., & Anderton, D. L. (1989). Migration and fertility: Behavioral change on the American frontier. Journal of Family History, 14(1), 43-61. google scholar
  • Owoo, N. S., Mensah, S. A., & Onuoha, E. (2015). The effect of neighbourhood mortality shocks on fertility preferences: A Spatial Econometric Approach. The European Journal of Health Economics: HEPAC, 16, 629-645. google scholar
  • Özgür, E. (2004). Türkiye>de toplam doğurganlık hızının mekansal dağılışı. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 2(2), 1-12. google scholar
  • Ribe, H., & Schultz, T. P. (1980). Migrant and native fertility in Colombia in 1973: Migrants Selected According to Their Reproductive Preferences?. Center Discussion Paper, No:355. google scholar
  • Rokicki, S., Montana, L., & Fink, G. (2014). Impact of migration on fertility and abortion: evidence from the household and welfare study of Accra. Demography, 51(6), 2229-2254. google scholar
  • Schultz, T. P. (2005). Fertility and ıncome. economic growth center, Yale University. google scholar
  • Schultz, T. P. (1997). Demand for children in low income countries. Handbook of Population and Family Economics, (1), 349-430. google scholar
  • Selim, S. (2004). Türkiye’de çocuk talebi ve kadınların işgücüne katılımının doğurganlık üzerindeki etkisi: Ekonometrik yaklaşım (Doktora Tezi). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İzmir. google scholar
  • Tobler, W. R. (1979). Cellular geography. In: Gale S, Olsson G (eds) Philosophy in Geography. (pp. 379-386). google scholar
  • Tu W. (1997). Empirical bayes analysis of count data. University of Tennessee, Master Thesis. google scholar
  • Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması. (2013). Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Nüfus Etütleri Enstitüsü TNSA Mikro Veri Seti. google scholar
  • White, M. J., Tagoe, E., Stiff, C., Adazul, K., & Smith, D. J. (2005). Urbanization and the fertility transition in Ghana. Population Research and Policy, (24), 59-83. google scholar
  • Willis, R. J. (1973). A new approach to the economic theory of fertility behavior. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2), 14-64. google scholar
  • Winkelmann, R., & Zimmermann, K. F. (1995). Recent developments in count data modelling: Theory and application. Journal of Economic Surveys, 9(1), 1-24. google scholar
  • Viton, P. A. (2010). Notes on spatial econometric models. City and Regional Planning 870.03. google scholar
  • Zeren, F. (2010). Mekansal etkileşim analizi. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, (12), 18-39. google scholar

Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Göç ve Mekânsal Etkileşim: Seçicilik Hipotezi Kapsamında Bir Analiz

Year 2021, Issue: 43, 111 - 125, 06.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2021-893270

Abstract

Göç bir yer değiştirme sürecidir ve toplumları sosyal, ekonomik ve yapısal olarak etkilemektedir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de göçün doğurganlık üzerindeki etkisini ölçmektedir. 2013 Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırmasından elde edilen veriler kullanılarak Robust Poisson modeline dayalı seçicilik hipotezi dikkate alınarak analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi değerlendirirken sosyal normların ve komşuluk ilişkilerinin rolünü dikkate almamak bütüncül bir bakış açısına engel olmakta; dolayısıyla bu çalışmada mekansal etkileşim boyutu da dikkate alınmaktadır. Bulgular, kadınların doğurganlık davranışlarını önemli ölçüde etkileme eğiliminde olan değişkenlerin, kentten kıra göç eden kadınların doğurganlık davranışları üzerinde etkisinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Kırdan kente göç eden kadınların ve kentlerde yaşayan kadınların doğurganlık davranışları üzerinde yaş, eğitim, çalışma durumu ve hanehalkı refahı gibi değişkenler önemli bir etkiye sahipken, bu değişkenlerin kırsal kesimde doğurganlık üzerindeki etkisi çok daha yüksektir. Bu bağlamda çalışma, Türkiye’de göç ve doğurganlık arasındaki mekansal bir ilişkiyi ortaya koymakta ve dolayısıyla seçicilik hipotezini geçersiz kılmaktadır.

References

  • Adsera, A., & Ferrer, A. (2011). Age at migration, language and fertility patterns among migrants to Canada. Discussion Paper Series(5552). google scholar
  • Akça, H. ve Ela, M. (2012). Türkiye’de eğitim, doğurganlık ve işsizlik ilişkisinin analizi. Maliye Dergisi, (163), 223-242. google scholar
  • AnseIin, L. (1988). Spatial econometrics: Methods and models. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. google scholar
  • Anselin, L., & Bera, A. K. (1998). Spatial dependence in linear regression models with an introduction to spatial econometrics. in Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics (pp. 237-289). New York: CRC Press. google scholar
  • Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. Demographic and economic change in developed countries. in Demographic and economic change in developed countries, Universities-Natıonal Bureau Committee for Economıc Research, (pp.209-240). ISBN: 0-87014-302-6: Columbıa Unıversıty Press. google scholar
  • Becker, G. S., & Lewis, H. G. (1973). Interaction between quantity and quality of children. Journal of PoliticalEconomy, 2(81), 279-288. google scholar
  • Becker, G. S., & Barro, R. J. (1988). A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility. The Quarterly Journal ofEconomics, 103(1), 1-25. google scholar
  • Darmofal, D. (2006). Spatial econometrics and political science. Annual Meeting of Southern Political Science Association. google scholar
  • De Tray, Dennis. N. (1973). Child quality and the demand for children. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2):70-95, Part 2: New Economic Approaches to Fertility, Published By: The University of Chicago Press. google scholar
  • Deliktaş, E., Usta, S., Bozkurt, S. ve Helvacı, B. (2008). Türkiye’de kentlerde doğurganlık hızını etkileyen faktörler: Path analizi yaklaşımı. Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 2(8), 877-895. google scholar
  • Dreze, J., & Murthi, M. (2000). Fertility, education and development. Discussion Paper No. DEDPS 20. google scholar
  • Elhorst, J. P. (2014). Spatial econometrics: From cross-sectional data to spatial panels, ISBN: 978-3-642-40339-2, Springer, London. google scholar
  • Emirhan, P. N. (2015). Göreli yoksunluk ve bölgeler arası göçler: Türkiye örneği. Business and Economics Research Journal, 6(2), 79-89. google scholar
  • Engelhardt, H. & Prskawetzz, A. (2002). On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time. Working papers of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 1-38. google scholar
  • Farber, S. C., & Lee, B. S. (1984). Fertility adaptation of rural-to-urban migrant women: A method of estimation applied to Korean women. Demography, 21(3), 339-345. google scholar
  • Gerkman, L. (2010). Topics in spatial econometrics-With applications to house prices (Doctoral dissertation). Nr: 219, Helsingfors google scholar
  • Getis, A., & Ord, J. K. (2008). The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics. Advances in Spatial Science, 127-145. google scholar
  • Goldstein, S. (1973). Interrelations between migration and fertility in Thailand. Demography, 10(2), 225-241. google scholar
  • Goldstein, S., & Goldstein, A. (1981). The Impact of migration on fertility:an ‘own children’ analysis for Thailand. Population Studies: A Journal ofDemography, 35(2), 265-284. google scholar
  • Gumprecht, D. (2005). Spatial methods in econometrics: An application to R&D spillovers. Department of Statistics and Mathematics Wirtschaftsuniversitat Wien Research Report Series, Report 26, https://epub.wu.ac.at/290/1/document.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 04.12.2019). google scholar
  • Güneri, Ö. İ. ve Durmuş, B. (2020). Aşırı ya da eksik yayılım durumunda poisson ve negatif binom regresyon modellerinin karşılaştırılması. Uluslararası Doğu Anadolu Fen Mühendislik ve Tasarım Dergisi, 2(1), 48-66. google scholar
  • Hepple, L. W. (1998). Exact testing for spatial autocorrelation among regression residuals. Environment and Planning A(30), 85-108. google scholar
  • Hervitz, H. M. (1985). Selectivity, adaptation, or disruption? A comparison of alternative hypotheses on theeffects of migration on fertility: The case of Brazil. The International Migration Review, 19(2), 293-317. google scholar
  • Hiday, V. A. (1978). Migration, urbanization, and fertility in the Philippines. International Migration Review, 12(3), 370-385. google scholar
  • Jensen, E. R., & Ahlburg, D. A. (2004). Why does migration decrease fertility? Evidence from the Philippines. Population Studies, 58(2), 219-231. google scholar
  • Kahn, J. R. (1988). Immigrant selectivity and fertility adaptation in the United States. Social Forces, 67(1), 108-128. google scholar
  • Kalkınma Bakanlığı. (2013). Onuncu kalkınma planı (2014-2018). https://www.ahika.gov.tr/assets/upload/dosyalar/onuncu-kalkinma-plani.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 15.11.2020). google scholar
  • Kravdal, O., & Rindfuss, R. R. (2008). Changing relationships between education and fertility: A study of women and men born 1940 to 1964. American Sociological Review, 73(5), 854-873. google scholar
  • Kulu, H. (2005). Migration and Fertility: Competing Hypotheses Re-examined. European Journal ofPopulation, 21, 51-87. google scholar
  • Lee, B. S., & Farber, S. C. (1984). Fertility Adaptation by Rural-Urban Migrants in Developing Countries: The Case of Korea. Population Studies, 38 (1), 141-155. google scholar
  • Liang, Y., Yi, Y., & Sun, Q. (2013). The Impact of migration on fertility under China’s underlying restrictions: A comparative study between permanent and temporary migrants. Social Indicators Research, 1(116), 307-326. google scholar
  • Long, L. H. (1970). The Fertility of migrants to and within North America. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 48(3), 297-316. google scholar
  • Long, J. (1997). Regression models for categorical and limited dependent variables. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA. google scholar
  • Macisco, J. J., Bouvier, F. L., & Renzi, M. J. (1969). Migration Status, education and fertility in Puerto Rico, 1960. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 47(2), 167-186. google scholar
  • Miller, J. E., Trussell, J., Pebley, A. R., & Vaughan, B. (1992). Birth spacing and child mortality in Bangladesh and the Philippines. Demography, 29(2), 305-318. google scholar
  • Mineau, G. P., Bean, L. L., & Anderton, D. L. (1989). Migration and fertility: Behavioral change on the American frontier. Journal of Family History, 14(1), 43-61. google scholar
  • Owoo, N. S., Mensah, S. A., & Onuoha, E. (2015). The effect of neighbourhood mortality shocks on fertility preferences: A Spatial Econometric Approach. The European Journal of Health Economics: HEPAC, 16, 629-645. google scholar
  • Özgür, E. (2004). Türkiye>de toplam doğurganlık hızının mekansal dağılışı. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 2(2), 1-12. google scholar
  • Ribe, H., & Schultz, T. P. (1980). Migrant and native fertility in Colombia in 1973: Migrants Selected According to Their Reproductive Preferences?. Center Discussion Paper, No:355. google scholar
  • Rokicki, S., Montana, L., & Fink, G. (2014). Impact of migration on fertility and abortion: evidence from the household and welfare study of Accra. Demography, 51(6), 2229-2254. google scholar
  • Schultz, T. P. (2005). Fertility and ıncome. economic growth center, Yale University. google scholar
  • Schultz, T. P. (1997). Demand for children in low income countries. Handbook of Population and Family Economics, (1), 349-430. google scholar
  • Selim, S. (2004). Türkiye’de çocuk talebi ve kadınların işgücüne katılımının doğurganlık üzerindeki etkisi: Ekonometrik yaklaşım (Doktora Tezi). Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İzmir. google scholar
  • Tobler, W. R. (1979). Cellular geography. In: Gale S, Olsson G (eds) Philosophy in Geography. (pp. 379-386). google scholar
  • Tu W. (1997). Empirical bayes analysis of count data. University of Tennessee, Master Thesis. google scholar
  • Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması. (2013). Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Nüfus Etütleri Enstitüsü TNSA Mikro Veri Seti. google scholar
  • White, M. J., Tagoe, E., Stiff, C., Adazul, K., & Smith, D. J. (2005). Urbanization and the fertility transition in Ghana. Population Research and Policy, (24), 59-83. google scholar
  • Willis, R. J. (1973). A new approach to the economic theory of fertility behavior. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2), 14-64. google scholar
  • Winkelmann, R., & Zimmermann, K. F. (1995). Recent developments in count data modelling: Theory and application. Journal of Economic Surveys, 9(1), 1-24. google scholar
  • Viton, P. A. (2010). Notes on spatial econometric models. City and Regional Planning 870.03. google scholar
  • Zeren, F. (2010). Mekansal etkileşim analizi. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, (12), 18-39. google scholar
There are 51 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Sibel Selim 0000-0002-8464-588X

Derya Bilgin 0000-0003-1384-8062

Publication Date January 6, 2022
Submission Date March 8, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Issue: 43

Cite

APA Selim, S., & Bilgin, D. (2022). Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Göç ve Mekânsal Etkileşim: Seçicilik Hipotezi Kapsamında Bir Analiz. Journal of Geography(43), 111-125. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2021-893270
AMA Selim S, Bilgin D. Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Göç ve Mekânsal Etkileşim: Seçicilik Hipotezi Kapsamında Bir Analiz. Journal of Geography. January 2022;(43):111-125. doi:10.26650/JGEOG2021-893270
Chicago Selim, Sibel, and Derya Bilgin. “Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Göç Ve Mekânsal Etkileşim: Seçicilik Hipotezi Kapsamında Bir Analiz”. Journal of Geography, no. 43 (January 2022): 111-25. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2021-893270.
EndNote Selim S, Bilgin D (January 1, 2022) Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Göç ve Mekânsal Etkileşim: Seçicilik Hipotezi Kapsamında Bir Analiz. Journal of Geography 43 111–125.
IEEE S. Selim and D. Bilgin, “Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Göç ve Mekânsal Etkileşim: Seçicilik Hipotezi Kapsamında Bir Analiz”, Journal of Geography, no. 43, pp. 111–125, January 2022, doi: 10.26650/JGEOG2021-893270.
ISNAD Selim, Sibel - Bilgin, Derya. “Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Göç Ve Mekânsal Etkileşim: Seçicilik Hipotezi Kapsamında Bir Analiz”. Journal of Geography 43 (January 2022), 111-125. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2021-893270.
JAMA Selim S, Bilgin D. Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Göç ve Mekânsal Etkileşim: Seçicilik Hipotezi Kapsamında Bir Analiz. Journal of Geography. 2022;:111–125.
MLA Selim, Sibel and Derya Bilgin. “Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Göç Ve Mekânsal Etkileşim: Seçicilik Hipotezi Kapsamında Bir Analiz”. Journal of Geography, no. 43, 2022, pp. 111-25, doi:10.26650/JGEOG2021-893270.
Vancouver Selim S, Bilgin D. Türkiye’de Doğurganlık, Göç ve Mekânsal Etkileşim: Seçicilik Hipotezi Kapsamında Bir Analiz. Journal of Geography. 2022(43):111-25.