Projecting Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion in Turkiye Using the Subspace KNN Algorithm (2030)

Year 2023, Issue: 47, 149 - 163, 10.01.2024

Fethi Ahmet Canpolat

https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2023-1270738

Abstract

One of the most important changes in agricultural land worldwide is the problem of land abandonment in underdeveloped and developing countries and in regions with low resilience to climate change. This problem is also an ongoing debate in Turkiye. This study first evaluates the process of abandonment and expansion of agricultural land in Turkiye based on the literature before presenting maps of the probability of abandonment and recovery of agricultural land. In this context, the abandonment and expansion of agricultural land due to changes in Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) data for 2006-2018 are used as the dependent variables. Probability maps were constructed using the subspace KNN model with 13 independent variables. The immediate surroundings of cities are seen to come first as the places with a high probability of abandonment. For rural areas, this appears as the areas close to roads and places with forced natural environmental conditions. A very low recovery situation has emerged in terms of places that can be reclaimed. The areas that stand out among these are where hazelnut and tea plantations have expanded in the Black Sea region, as well as the areas with relatively favorable topography in the interior of the Western and Central Taurus Mountains in the Mediterranean region.

Keywords

Abandonment of agricultural land, Expansion of agricultural land, Subspace KNN, projection, Turkiye

Türkiye’de Tarımsal Arazilerin Terk Edilmesi ve Genişlemesinin Subspace KNN Algoritmasıyla Projeksiyonu (2030)

Abstract

Küresel çapta tarım arazilerinde gözlemlenen önemli değişikliklerden biri, az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ve iklim değişikliğine karşı dirençliliğin düşük olduğu bölgelerde görülen, tarımsal arazilerin terk edilmesi problemidir. Bu problem Türkiye genelinde de tartışmaların devam ettiği bir süreci yaşamaktadır. Çalışmada ilk olarak Türkiye’de tarım arazilerinin terk edilmesi ve genişlemesi süreci literatüre dayalı olarak değerlendirilmekte; ikinci olarak tarımsal arazilerde terk edilme ve geri kazanma olasılığına yönelik haritalar sunulmaktadır. Bu kapsamda CORINE verilerindeki (2006-2018) değişikliğe bağlı olarak terk edilen ve genişleyen tarımsal araziler bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Subspace KNN modeli ile 13 bağımsız değişken kullanılarak olasılık haritaları oluşturulmuştur. Terk edilme olasılığı yüksek yerler arasında öncelikle kentlerin yakın çevresi görülmektedir. Kırsal alanlarda ise yollara yakın alanlar ile doğal ortam koşullarının zorladığı yerler belirmektedir. Yeniden kullanılabilecek yerler açısından ise oldukça düşük bir geri kazanma durumu ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu yerler arasında, Karadeniz Bölgesinde fındık ve çay arazilerinin genişlediği alanlar ile Akdeniz Bölgesinde, Batı ve Orta Torosların iç kesimlerindeki topografyanın nispeten elverişli olduğu alanlar dikkati çekmektedir.

Keywords

Terk Edilmiş Tarımsal Araziler, Tarım arazilerinin genişlemesi, Subspace KNN, Projeksiyon, Türkiye

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