Causalities Between Exports, Imports, and Total Factor Productivity in Developing Countries: The Case of Türkiye, Brazil, India, and South Africa

Year 2024, , 186 - 203, 13.08.2024

Mehmet Emre Ünsal

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1394692

Abstract

Theoretical frameworks and practical research have shown that economic growth and employment in developing countries are influenced by their achievements in foreign trade and productivity. The link between exports and TFP can be analysed through various lenses; including competitiveness, innovation and quality enhancement, the learning-by-doing effect, the adoption of cutting-edge technologies, and market competition. The link between imports and TFP can be interpreted through factors such as the need for capital goods, the tastes and demands of consumers, the transfer of knowledge, and the focus on producing specialised goods. The aim of this study was to examine the causality between exports, imports, and total factor productivity in developing countries. For this purpose, time series analyses are performed using data from the economies of Türkiye, Brazil, India, and South Africa. The hypothesis of this study is that in developing countries, there is bidirectional causality between exports, imports, and total factor productivity, both in the short and long term. The series used in the analysis become stationary when the first differences are taken. According to the Johansen Co-integration Test results, there is no long-term causality between exports, imports, and total factor productivity. According to the results of the Granger Causality Test conducted within the framework of the VAR model; there are bidirectional causalities between exports, imports, and total factor productivity in these four developing countries in the short run.

Keywords

Exports, Imports, Total factor productivity, Developing countries, Time series analyzes

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde İhracat, İthalat ve Toplam Faktör Verimliliği Arasındaki Nedensellikler: Türkiye, Brezilya, Hindistan ve Güney Afrika Örneği

Abstract

Teorik ve uygulamalı araştırmalar, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ekonomik büyüme ve istihdamın, ilgili ülkelerin dış ticaret ve verimlilik performanslarından etkilendiğini göstermektedir. İhracat ile toplam faktör verimliliği arasındaki ilişki; rekabet gücü, inovasyon, yaparak öğrenme etkisi, son teknolojilerin benimsenmesi ve piyasa rekabeti gibi çeşitli açılardan analiz edilebilir. İthalat ile toplam faktör verimliliği arasındaki ilişki ise; sermaye malları ithalatı, tüketicilerin zevk ve tercihleri, bilgi ve teknoloji transferi ve üretimde uzmanlaşma gibi faktörler üzerinden yorumlanabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ihracat, ithalat ve toplam faktör verimliliği arasındaki nedenselliği incelemektir. Bu amaçla Türkiye, Brezilya, Hindistan ve Güney Afrika ekonomilerinden elde edilen veriler kullanılarak Zaman Serisi Analizleri yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın hipotezi; gelişmekte olan ülkelerde hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde ihracat, ithalat ve toplam faktör verimliliği arasında çift yönlü nedensellik bulunduğu yönündedir. Analizde kullanılan seriler ilk farkları alındığında durağan hale gelmektedir. Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi sonuçlarına göre ihracat, ithalat ve toplam faktör verimliliği arasında uzun dönemli bir nedensellik bulunmamaktadır. VAR modeli çerçevesinde yapılan Granger Nedensellik Testi sonuçlarına göre; bu dört gelişmekte olan ülkede ihracat, ithalat ve toplam faktör verimliliği arasında kısa dönmede çift yönlü nedensellikler bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

İhracat, İthalat, Toplam faktör verimliliği, Gelişmekte olan ülkeler, Zaman serisi analizi

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